Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years</li>
<li>This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown</li>
<li>We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets</li>
</ul>


Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years
This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown
We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets


Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: How the Gree Windfall Got Squandered</li><li>Analysis: Chinese Savers Move Beyond Bank Deposits as Rates Fall</li><li>Exclusive: China Steps Up Oversight of Bond Rating Terminations</li><li>China Evergrande Liquidators Sue PwC for $8.4 Billion Over Audit Work</li></ul>

In Depth: How the Gree Windfall Got SquanderedAnalysis: Chinese Savers Move Beyond Bank Deposits as Rates FallExclusive: China Steps Up Oversight of Bond Rating TerminationsChina Evergrande Liquidators Sue PwC for $8.4 Billion Over Audit Work

CX Daily: How the Gree Windfall Got Squandered 

<ul>
<li>In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.</li>
<li>The estimates of the scale of the problem are wide, and many are rooted in likely misinterpretation of the official data.</li>
<li>The scale of the true problem is likely much smaller than most estimates and there are new indicators suggesting so.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.
The estimates of the scale of the problem are wide, and many are rooted in likely misinterpretation of the official data.
The scale of the true problem is likely much smaller than most estimates and there are new indicators suggesting so.


China Property - Is The Delivery Of New Homes (Pre-Sold Pre-2022) Problem Solved?

<ul>
<li>China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today</li>
<li>In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years</li>
<li>While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements ('less negative'), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics</li>
</ul>


China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today
In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years
While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements ('less negative'), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics


China Property: 4 Charts - Full Year 2024 In Context

<ul>
<li>The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less negative".</li>
<li>We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report, which looks at 16 major cities and the latest data for the week ending June 30.</li>
<li>Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.</li>
</ul>


The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less negative".
We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report, which looks at 16 major cities and the latest data for the week ending June 30.
Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.


China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Now Clearly "Less Negative" (To June 30, 2024)

China

China Evergrande Group was a major Chinese property developer, known for large-scale residential projects and diversified operations in property management, new energy vehicles, cultural tourism, and health industries. The company was founded in 1996 and was headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

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China Evergrande (3333 HK)

Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

China Property - Take a tour of these four data visualizations/animations of the city-level house price changes to get a finer perspective on...

Robert Ciemniak

CX Daily: How the Gree Windfall Got Squandered

TOP STORIES In Depth: How the Gree Windfall Got Squandered A widening corruption probe in the southern Chinese manufacturing city of Zhuhai is...

Caixin Global

China Property - Is The Delivery Of New Homes (Pre-Sold Pre-2022) Problem Solved?

In this note, we look at the issue of new homes that were pre-sold by developers but not yet delivered as developers struggled financially.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: 4 Charts - Full Year 2024 In Context

In this brief note, we put together the key China macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years, based on today's Jan-Dec...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Now Clearly "Less Negative" (To June 30, 2024)

China Property: The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)