Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-property-in-hindsight-on-2024-and-draw-the-line-2025" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Draw the Line' survey</a>, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025</li>
<li>Responses concentrate in the -5% to -10% range but vary from -20% to +20%, vs -14% actual for 2024</li>
<li>Jan-Feb 2025 actual figure published mid-March by NBS shows an improvement from -14% to -12% (12 months rolling vs prior 12 months)</li>
</ul>


This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual 'Draw the Line' survey, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025
Responses concentrate in the -5% to -10% range but vary from -20% to +20%, vs -14% actual for 2024
Jan-Feb 2025 actual figure published mid-March by NBS shows an improvement from -14% to -12% (12 months rolling vs prior 12 months)


China Property: 2025 "Draw The Line" Forecasts for New Home Sales - Results

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years</li>
<li>This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown</li>
<li>We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets</li>
</ul>


Through a set of 4 quick animations of city-level data (70 cities), we illuminate the dynamics of new home prices in China over the past 12 years
This helps put the current (since mid-2021) downturn in context and build intuition about the components of the aggregate declines, including the by-city-tier breakdown
We point out a number of key data caveats and traps in the interpretation of the data sets


Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

<ul>
<li>China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today</li>
<li>In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years</li>
<li>While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements ('less negative'), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics</li>
</ul>


China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the Jan-Dec 2024 macro and property data today
In this brief note, we put together the key macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years
While the latest monthly and weekly data show improvements ('less negative'), the full year 2024 ended more negative vs 2023 for key macro-property metrics


China Property: 4 Charts - Full Year 2024 In Context

<ul>
<li>The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less negative".</li>
<li>We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report, which looks at 16 major cities and the latest data for the week ending June 30.</li>
<li>Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.</li>
</ul>


The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less negative".
We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report, which looks at 16 major cities and the latest data for the week ending June 30.
Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.


China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Now Clearly "Less Negative" (To June 30, 2024)

<ul>
<li>In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets</li>
<li>We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements</li>
<li>The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view <a href="https://vimeo.com/911098574/5874dfd757?share=copy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this 3-minute version</a> with a few highlights.</li>
</ul>


In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets
We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements
The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view this 3-minute version with a few highlights.


Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China Property: 2025 "Draw The Line" Forecasts for New Home Sales - Results

This is a quick note with the results of Real Estate Foresight's annual 'Draw the Line' survey, which focused on China's new home sales for 2025.

Robert Ciemniak

Around China Housing In 80 Seconds - Visualizing The 2012-2023 Monthly Data

China Property - Take a tour of these four data visualizations/animations of the city-level house price changes to get a finer perspective on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: 4 Charts - Full Year 2024 In Context

In this brief note, we put together the key China macro-property metrics for the full year 2024 vs the past several years, based on today's Jan-Dec...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Now Clearly "Less Negative" (To June 30, 2024)

China Property: The policy easing and the change in the base effect started to show some impact on new home sales y/y metrics turning '"less...

Robert Ciemniak

Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

China: As the Two Meetings kick off this week, our China Property Outlook 2024 webinar from February dives deeper into the China housing market,...

Robert Ciemniak

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)