Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The NBS house price indices data for 70 major cities in February was released earlier today and shows a further slowdown in the sequential month-on-month growth, yet a slightly faster year-on-year growth, with the year-on-year growth rates over the past few months staying at similar levels.

The NBS house price indices data for 70 major cities in February was released earlier today and shows a further slowdown in the sequential month-on-month growth, yet a slightly faster year-on-year growth, with the year-on-year growth rates over the past few months staying at similar levels.

China House Price Growth Slower M/M But Faster Y/Y - Today's February NBS Data For 70 Major Cities

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

In our regular weekly issue we pointed out a bullish wedge breakout in the HK property market (helped by fading US yields for now) and that we liked SHK and Country Garden. Here we see a similar bull flag pattern in Evergrande Property (3333).Evergrande is set to break higher out of a micro bull flag after make an impulsive rise out of the recent bull wedge. What stands out, is the fact that the corrective cycle that began in November 2017 is forming a broader wedge pattern that has corrective…

In our regular weekly issue we pointed out a bullish wedge breakout in the HK property market (helped by fading US yields for now) and that we liked SHK and Country Garden. Here we see a similar bull flag pattern in Evergrande Property (3333).Evergrande is set to break higher out of a micro bull flag after make an impulsive rise out of the recent bull wedge. What stands out, is the fact that the corrective cycle that began in November 2017 is forming a broader wedge pattern that has corrective…

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul><li>China Statistics Bureaus calculate resold home prices lower than the real market prices.</li><li>Apartment buyers and sellers provide discounted prices to governmental bureaus for tax avoidance and make up to the real prices via supplemental agreements.</li><li>Local governments do not want to reveal the real high prices, or the central government will believe local officials do not have the ability of market intervention.</li></ul>

China Statistics Bureaus calculate resold home prices lower than the real market prices.Apartment buyers and sellers provide discounted prices to governmental bureaus for tax avoidance and make up to the real prices via supplemental agreements.Local governments do not want to reveal the real high prices, or the central government will believe local officials do not have the ability of market intervention.

China Statistics Bureaus Miss Supplemental Agreements in Calculating Resold Home Price

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li> Simultaneous deleveraging in China and protectionism/fiscal expansion in the US would shift the longstanding correlation between US inflation and Chinese growth expectations.</li>
<li>Aggregate debt growth in China exceeded nominal GDP growth by 1.3ppts in 2017 so deleveraging has not yet begun, but looks imminent as regulatory pressure intensifies.</li>
<li>The takeover of Anbang reflects a increasingly comprehensive attempt to remove opaque funding channels and implicit government guarantees that have distorted…</li>
</ul>


 Simultaneous deleveraging in China and protectionism/fiscal expansion in the US would shift the longstanding correlation between US inflation and Chinese growth expectations.
Aggregate debt growth in China exceeded nominal GDP growth by 1.3ppts in 2017 so deleveraging has not yet begun, but looks imminent as regulatory pressure intensifies.
The takeover of Anbang reflects a increasingly comprehensive attempt to remove opaque funding channels and implicit government guarantees that have distorted…


Xi and Trump Policy Priorities Imply US Inflation to Diverge From Chinese Growth

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending on February 25, as an early alternative indicator for the growth pattern seen in the monthly national sales volumes figures for January-February - expected to be published on March 14.

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending on February 25, as an early alternative indicator for the growth pattern seen in the monthly national sales volumes figures for January-February - expected to be published on March 14.  

China Weekly Property Sales Data Till Feb 25 Suggests Stability (Adjusted For Chinese New Year)

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China House Price Growth Slower M/M But Faster Y/Y - Today's February NBS Data For 70 Major Cities

The NBS house price indices data for 70 major cities in February was released earlier today and shows a further slowdown in the sequential...

Robert Ciemniak

Buy Evergrande Real Estate Group

In our regular weekly issue we pointed out a bullish wedge breakout in the HK property market (helped by fading US yields for now) and that we...

Thomas Schroeder

China Statistics Bureaus Miss Supplemental Agreements in Calculating Resold Home Price

China Statistics Bureaus calculate resold home prices lower than the real market prices. Apartment buyers and sellers provide discounted prices to...

Ming Lu

Xi and Trump Policy Priorities Imply US Inflation to Diverge From Chinese Growth

Simultaneous deleveraging in China and protectionism/fiscal expansion in the US would shift the longstanding correlation between US inflation and...

Sean Maher

China Weekly Property Sales Data Till Feb 25 Suggests Stability (Adjusted For Chinese New Year)

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending...

Robert Ciemniak

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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