External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We moderately trim our 2022/23E earnings by 6-7% p.a as we now attempt to factor-in 1) a lower GPM (by average 0.8pp) due to higher non-infant milk formula contribution and 2) a 1.5pp higher selling expense.</li><li>Our forecast in general is at the low end/ slightly below management guidance, as we believe a low birth rate could compound with an intensifying competition to weigh on margins and drive up promotion expenses.</li><li>Despite this, Feihe’s sequential sales recovery sustains our BUY rating.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We moderately trim our 2022/23E earnings by 6-7% p.a as we now attempt to factor-in 1) a lower GPM (by average 0.8pp) due to higher non-infant milk formula contribution and 2) a 1.5pp higher selling expense.Our forecast in general is at the low end/ slightly below management guidance, as we believe a low birth rate could compound with an intensifying competition to weigh on margins and drive up promotion expenses.Despite this, Feihe’s sequential sales recovery sustains our BUY rating.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Feihe (6186 HK) – Completion of channel restructuring continues to drive a steady 2H recovery

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 6 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance, mainly driven by the deletions.</li>
<li>If there are six changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 6.47% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4,124m.</li>
<li>There is large short interest on quite a lot of stocks and will play an important role in the rebalance.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 6 changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the December rebalance, mainly driven by the deletions.
If there are six changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 6.47% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4,124m.
There is large short interest on quite a lot of stocks and will play an important role in the rebalance.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Could Be A BIG One

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/health-and-happiness-h-h-int" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20582:1" rel="noopener">Health And Happiness (H&amp;H) (1112 HK)</a> 's first half financial performance was bolstered by robust sales growth in its adult, pet nutrition products even as infant formula sales remained weak.</li>
<li>Multiple sector specific headwinds continue to impact sales of Infant formula in Mainland China. It now accounts for less than 50% of H&amp;H's overall sales.</li>
<li>Segment-Wise valuation suggest stock upside even at conservative multiples. With nearly half the revenues and gross margins being contributed by high growth Adult, Pet nutrition segments, this seems appropriate. </li>
</ul>



Health And Happiness (H&amp;H) (1112 HK) 's first half financial performance was bolstered by robust sales growth in its adult, pet nutrition products even as infant formula sales remained weak.
Multiple sector specific headwinds continue to impact sales of Infant formula in Mainland China. It now accounts for less than 50% of H&amp;H's overall sales.
Segment-Wise valuation suggest stock upside even at conservative multiples. With nearly half the revenues and gross margins being contributed by high growth Adult, Pet nutrition segments, this seems appropriate. 


H&H Holdings: Growing Adult, Pet Care Offset Slowing Baby Care. Segment Valuation Suggest Upside

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> independent shareholders unanimously approved the proposed transactions at the 16 August EGM, a crucial step for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>’s HK$1.20 offer.</li>
<li>The remaining pre-condition is the completion of the 25% Yashili acquisition. The completion conditions suggest that this pre-condition is low risk and will likely be completed soon.</li>
<li>The value test is only applicable to the scheme. At last close and for a November completion, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 8.1% and 29.6%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) independent shareholders unanimously approved the proposed transactions at the 16 August EGM, a crucial step for China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)’s HK$1.20 offer.
The remaining pre-condition is the completion of the 25% Yashili acquisition. The completion conditions suggest that this pre-condition is low risk and will likely be completed soon.
The value test is only applicable to the scheme. At last close and for a November completion, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 8.1% and 29.6%, respectively.


Yashili’s Pre-Condition EGM Approval Secured

<ul>
<li>The approval by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yashili-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3397:1" rel="noopener">Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK)</a> independent shareholders of the proposed transactions at the 16 August EGM is a pre-condition to the HK$1.20 per share privatisation proposal.</li>
<li>Shareholders will pass the ordinary resolutions at the EGM so that they can vote on the attractive privatisation proposal. The key risk is timing around the satisfaction of the pre-conditions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>’s offer remains attractive in the context of multiples and historical share prices. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 10.1%.</li>
</ul>


The approval by Yashili International Holdings (1230 HK) independent shareholders of the proposed transactions at the 16 August EGM is a pre-condition to the HK$1.20 per share privatisation proposal.
Shareholders will pass the ordinary resolutions at the EGM so that they can vote on the attractive privatisation proposal. The key risk is timing around the satisfaction of the pre-conditions.

China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)’s offer remains attractive in the context of multiples and historical share prices. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 10.1%.


Yashili’s Pre-Condition EGM Set for 16 August

China

China Feihe specializes in the development, production, and sale of infant formula milk, other dairy products, and nutritional supplements. The company offers a range of products including infant milk formula, adult milk powder, liquid milk, and health care products. Founded in 1962, its headquarters are in Beijing, China.

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China Feihe (6186 HK)