HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Eastroc Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eastroc-beverage-group-co-ltd-f3283290-a611-4cb4-8857-93101786e283" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45048:1" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage Group (9980 HK)</a> has a solid growth outlook with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, given its leadership position in China's functional beverage market. </li>
<li>Its IPO price of HK$248 equals 20.4x FY26F PER. This is at 44% premium to the sector and 19% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>, which is justified. </li>
<li>The cap and the floor is 5% and 15% discount to the A-share, i.e. HK$239-265.1, implying a 7% upside and 4% downside. The IPO (11.2% discount) is fairly priced.</li>
</ul>



Eastroc Beverage Group (9980 HK) has a solid growth outlook with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, given its leadership position in China's functional beverage market. 
Its IPO price of HK$248 equals 20.4x FY26F PER. This is at 44% premium to the sector and 19% discount to Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), which is justified. 
The cap and the floor is 5% and 15% discount to the A-share, i.e. HK$239-265.1, implying a 7% upside and 4% downside. The IPO (11.2% discount) is fairly priced.


Eastroc Beverage (9980 HK) IPO: Close to Fairly Priced

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eastroc-beverage-group-co-ltd-f3283290-a611-4cb4-8857-93101786e283" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45048:1" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage Group (9980 HK)</a>, the largest functional beverage company in China, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.3 billion.</li>
<li>I discussed the H Share listing in <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eastroc-beverage-h-share-listing-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:218181" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing: The Investment Case</a></strong></em>. </li>
<li>The proposed AH discount of 12.6% (based on the 23 January A Share price) is tight and will draw mixed views. Overall, I will tilt towards participating in the listing. </li>
</ul>



Eastroc Beverage Group (9980 HK), the largest functional beverage company in China, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$1.3 billion.
I discussed the H Share listing in Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing: The Investment Case. 
The proposed AH discount of 12.6% (based on the 23 January A Share price) is tight and will draw mixed views. Overall, I will tilt towards participating in the listing. 


Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing (9980 HK): Valuation Insights

Eastroc Beverage Group   / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eastroc-beverage-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34882:1" rel="noopener">Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH)</a>, the largest functional beverage company in China, is pre-marketing an H-Share listing to raise around US$1 billion.    </li>
<li>The product portfolio includes energy beverages, sports beverages, tea beverages, coffee beverages, plant-based protein beverages, fruit and vegetable juice beverages, and other beverage products.</li>
<li>The investment case rests on a large TAM, a core business in good health, rising margins and strong cash conversion.</li>
</ul>



Eastroc Beverage Group (605499 CH), the largest functional beverage company in China, is pre-marketing an H-Share listing to raise around US$1 billion.    
The product portfolio includes energy beverages, sports beverages, tea beverages, coffee beverages, plant-based protein beverages, fruit and vegetable juice beverages, and other beverage products.
The investment case rests on a large TAM, a core business in good health, rising margins and strong cash conversion.


Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing: The Investment Case

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals / Index Rebalance

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)

<ul>
<li>We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025

Hong Kong

China Foods is an investment holding company primarily engaged in the manufacturing, distribution, marketing, and sale of Coca-Cola series products across mainland China. Its product portfolio includes sparkling drinks, juices, water, milk drinks, energy drinks, teas, and coffees. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

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China Foods (506 HK)

Eastroc Beverage (9980 HK) IPO: Close to Fairly Priced

Eastroc has solid growth with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, supported by leadership in China's functional beverage market. Its IPO is fairly priced...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

The forecast adds to the index and Stock Connect are up 9.7% on average this month while the forecast deletes from the index and Stock Connect are...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025

There could be 55 changes for the HSCI in September. That could result in 46 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Eastroc Beverage (9980 HK) IPO: Close to Fairly Priced

​Eastroc has solid growth with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, supported by leadership in China's functional beverage market. Its IPO is fairly priced...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing (9980 HK): Valuation Insights

The proposed AH discount of 12.6% (based on the 23 January A Share price) is tight and will draw mixed views. Overall, I will tilt towards...

Arun George

Eastroc Beverage H Share Listing: The Investment Case

Eastroc, the largest functional beverage company in China, is pre-marketing an H-Share listing to raise around US$1 billion. In this note, I...

Arun George

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

The forecast adds to the index and Stock Connect are up 9.7% on average this month while the forecast deletes from the index and Stock Connect are...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025

There could be 55 changes for the HSCI in September. That could result in 46 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have...

Brian Freitas

Eastroc has solid growth with a 3-year EPS CAGR of 27.8%, supported by leadership in China's functional beverage market. Its IPO is fairly priced...