IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

China Resources Beverage / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> trades 4.0% below its IPO of HK$14.50 per share. The first six-month lock-up period expires on 22 April.</li>
<li>At the end of the first lock-up expiry, shares representing 727.1m (30.32% of outstanding) will be eligible for sale. However, there is a low risk of substantial sales.</li>
<li>The fundamentals remain good, with margin improvement, beverage’s fast-paced growth, narrowing of the margin gap with Nongfu and undemanding valuation.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) trades 4.0% below its IPO of HK$14.50 per share. The first six-month lock-up period expires on 22 April.
At the end of the first lock-up expiry, shares representing 727.1m (30.32% of outstanding) will be eligible for sale. However, there is a low risk of substantial sales.
The fundamentals remain good, with margin improvement, beverage’s fast-paced growth, narrowing of the margin gap with Nongfu and undemanding valuation.


CR Beverage (2460 HK): Keep Calm Heading into the Lock-Up Expiry

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>’s offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a> is HK$7.21 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 10 January.  </li>
<li>CCASS data shows that Mr Wei has tendered (22.01% of outstanding shares). Including acceptances, ORG’s shareholding was 46.63% of outstanding shares as of 24 December.</li>
<li>The Board supports the offer, and it is close to being declared unconditional. At the last close and 25 January payment, the gross/annualized spread was 0.8%/10.9%.</li>
</ul>



CPMC Holdings (906 HK)’s offer from ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH) is HK$7.21 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is 10 January.  
CCASS data shows that Mr Wei has tendered (22.01% of outstanding shares). Including acceptances, ORG’s shareholding was 46.63% of outstanding shares as of 24 December.
The Board supports the offer, and it is close to being declared unconditional. At the last close and 25 January payment, the gross/annualized spread was 0.8%/10.9%.


CPMC Holdings (906 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 38 potential and close adds and 51 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been many new listings in the last weeks of December. Some of them are fairly large and will be added and that increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

<ul>
<li>We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>My conversation with the FA earlier this week largely put to rest a number of concerns, specifically on regulatory approvals, surrounding the Offer for <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a></strong>. </li>
<li>As announced on the 13th December, the last pre-condition, SAFE, has been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1213/2024121301235.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">satisfied</a>. All pre-cons have been fulfilled.  The Offer Doc will be dispatched on or before the 20th December</li>
<li>This <em>could</em> turn unconditional before year-end, depending on whether Zhang Wei promptly tenders. Expect the share price to trade tight (er) to terms Monday morning.</li>
</ul>


My conversation with the FA earlier this week largely put to rest a number of concerns, specifically on regulatory approvals, surrounding the Offer for CPMC Holdings (906 HK). 
As announced on the 13th December, the last pre-condition, SAFE, has been satisfied. All pre-cons have been fulfilled.  The Offer Doc will be dispatched on or before the 20th December
This could turn unconditional before year-end, depending on whether Zhang Wei promptly tenders. Expect the share price to trade tight (er) to terms Monday morning.


CPMC (906 HK): Not A Shadow Of Doubt (!) As Pre-Cons Fulfilled

Hong Kong

China Foods is an investment holding company primarily engaged in the manufacturing, distribution, marketing, and sale of Coca-Cola series products across mainland China. Its product portfolio includes sparkling drinks, juices, water, milk drinks, energy drinks, teas, and coffees. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

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China Foods (506 HK)

CR Beverage (2460 HK): Keep Calm Heading into the Lock-Up Expiry

The shares are trading 4.0% below the IPO price. The first six-month lock-up period expires on 22 April. However, there is a low risk of...

Arun George

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional

Based on CCASS data, ORG’s shareholding, including acceptances, is 50.10% of outstanding shares as of 7 January. Therefore, the offer has become...

Arun George

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Updated Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 89 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 73 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 78 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 57 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

CPMC (906 HK): Not A Shadow Of Doubt (!) As Pre-Cons Fulfilled

Awesome news to see the pre-cons satisfied. Expect Canvest and Henlius to also narrow into terms. If this turns unco on the first closing date,...

David Blennerhassett

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