HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>China's securities industry is under a wave of consolidation. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a> is interesting given its leadership in the investment banking business.</li>
<li>A combination with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-galaxy-securities-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:165:1" rel="noopener">China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK)</a> may bring synergy, given their different focuses. This will create the 3rd largest securities house in China. </li>
<li>Even without a merger, CICC also looks attractive with the US interest rate trending down. It is best set to gain upon the revival of the Hong Kong IPO market. </li>
</ul>


China's securities industry is under a wave of consolidation. China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is interesting given its leadership in the investment banking business.
A combination with China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK) may bring synergy, given their different focuses. This will create the 3rd largest securities house in China. 
Even without a merger, CICC also looks attractive with the US interest rate trending down. It is best set to gain upon the revival of the Hong Kong IPO market. 


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Alpha Portfolio returned 5.23% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 5.92%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 10.36% to 14.38% since its inception on 10/01/24.</li>
<li>About 80% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation.  The portfolio has no exposure to Real Estate, Healthcare, Materials, or Energy at this time.</li>
<li>At month end, we sold ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance C (6060 HK) , China Longyuan Power (916 HK) , CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a> .</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Alpha Portfolio returned 5.23% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 5.92%.  The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 10.36% to 14.38% since its inception on 10/01/24.
About 80% of the portfolio's excess returns have been from alpha generation.  The portfolio has no exposure to Real Estate, Healthcare, Materials, or Energy at this time.
At month end, we sold ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance C (6060 HK) , China Longyuan Power (916 HK) , CRRC Corp Ltd H (1766 HK), and Weibo (9898 HK) .


HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (December 2024)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China considers launching a stock stabilization fund which could release RmB800B in liquidity support for the market.  Securities firms and insurance companies will be the major beneficiaries.</li>
<li>The mega merger between  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> could be the precursor to further industry consolidation.</li>
<li>Hong Kong trading volumes and IPO's set to surge as Beijing lifts sentiment.</li>
</ul>


China considers launching a stock stabilization fund which could release RmB800B in liquidity support for the market.  Securities firms and insurance companies will be the major beneficiaries.
The mega merger between  Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) and Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) could be the precursor to further industry consolidation.
Hong Kong trading volumes and IPO's set to surge as Beijing lifts sentiment.


<ul>
<li>While still progressing, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a>'s merger will boost earnings. For 1Q26, the combined group will have seen a 66.9% earnings growth. </li>
<li>The IPO market boom is beneficial to CICC. YTD, it has a 36.9% share of the number of deals and 39.4% share in funds raised in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Assuming completion by end-Sep, CICC will trade at 8.8x PER for FY27, a 26% premium to the sector average. However, its leadership position and the potential synergy support this.</li>
</ul>


While still progressing, China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)'s merger will boost earnings. For 1Q26, the combined group will have seen a 66.9% earnings growth. 
The IPO market boom is beneficial to CICC. YTD, it has a 36.9% share of the number of deals and 39.4% share in funds raised in Hong Kong.
Assuming completion by end-Sep, CICC will trade at 8.8x PER for FY27, a 26% premium to the sector average. However, its leadership position and the potential synergy support this.


CICC (3908 HK): It's Getting More Interesting

Shanghai Electric Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong Long-Only portfolio launched on October 1st with objective to generate alpha in the Hong Kong market.</li>
<li>Stocks are chosen from single stock insights as well as sector and weekly publications.</li>
<li>Positions will be adjusted once a month and the cash position will vary based on market conditions.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong Long-Only portfolio launched on October 1st with objective to generate alpha in the Hong Kong market.
Stocks are chosen from single stock insights as well as sector and weekly publications.
Positions will be adjusted once a month and the cash position will vary based on market conditions.


China

China Galaxy Securities is a leading integrated financial services provider specializing in securities brokerage, investment banking, wealth management, and institutional services. It offers a wide array of products including stock and bond trading, fund services, derivatives, investment advisory, and asset management. The company was formally established in 2007 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

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China Galaxy Securities (6881 HK)

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Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CICC (3908 HK): M&A Possibility

CICC announced that it has entered into agreements to merge with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, instead of the widely rumoured China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (December 2024)

Hong Kong Alpha porfolio returned 5.29% in December and has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 10% to 14% since its inception on 10/01/24.The...

David Mudd

Hong Kong/China Brokers: TAKE THE OFFER!

The HK/China brokers: 6030, 3908, 6886, 6806, 6881, 1776, 6178, 1456, 165, and 6099 have gained between 90% and 100% since the report was published...

David Mudd

CICC (3908 HK): It's Getting More Interesting

​Merger boosts earnings for CICC, as the combined group's earnings surged 66.9% in 1Q26. It led the Hong Kong IPO market with strong growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO - Introduction

We have launched a Hong Kong portfolio with the aim to outperform HK indexes and generate alpha. Stocks are chosen from those highlighted in our...

David Mudd

Merger boosts earnings for CICC, as the combined group's earnings surged 66.9% in 1Q26. It led the Hong Kong IPO market with strong growth and...