Hao Wang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We have quite a few market surprises this year, especially from China, not to mention those from Middle East. Here I would like to mention a <a href="http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2016-01/04/nw.D110000renmrb_20160104_1-02.htm" target="_blank">very important article</a> published on the front page and the whole second page on People's Daily on Jan 4th. Though the article is only in Chinese and not covered by most of the foreign media, it gives probably the best explanation of the so-called supply-side reform and more importantly the intentions of top leaders on economic policies. Given that most of…

We have quite a few market surprises this year, especially from China, not to mention those from Middle East. Here I would like to mention a very important article published on the front page and the whole second page on People's Daily on Jan 4th. Though the article is only in Chinese and not covered by most of the foreign media, it gives probably the best explanation of the so-called supply-side reform and more importantly the intentions of top leaders on economic policies. Given that most of…

What You Might Have Missed but Should Not on China's Supply-Side Reform

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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<ul><li class="p1">The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further downside.&nbsp;</li><li class="p2">Copper price declines of the past few months have caused many analysts to pare their near-term price forecasts. Yet longer term, most remain bullish, citing copper's geological scarcity and continued, albeit slower, Chinese demand growth.</li><li class="p2">Most analysts forecast an eventual recovery to $2.25-$3.00 per pound, an outlook that informs aggressive price targets on copper mining stocks.&nbsp;</li><li class="p2">We forecast a long-term price of $2.00 per pound and expect ebbing Chinese demand, which accounts for roughly half of the global total, to push prices below $2.00 in 2016 and 2017.</li><li class="p2">We expect China's copper needs to fall as real estate activity fades to a level more commensurate with underlying urbanization trends and power spending shifts away from copper-heavy distribution to copper-light transmission.</li><li class="p2">On the supply side, cost deflation, a flattening of the cost curve, and rising scrap supplies all threaten prices.</li><li class="p2">We see significant downside risk in copper mining stocks.</li></ul>Analysts: Jeffrey Stafford, CFA &amp; Daniel Rohr, CFA

The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further downside.&nbsp;Copper price declines of the past few months have caused many analysts to pare their near-term price forecasts. Yet longer term, most remain bullish, citing copper's geological scarcity and continued, albeit slower, Chinese demand growth.Most analysts forecast an eventual recovery to $2.25-$3.00 per pound, an outlook that informs aggressive price targets on copper mining stocks.&nbsp;We forecast a long-term price of $2.00 per pound and expect ebbing Chinese demand, which accounts for roughly half of the global total, to push prices below $2.00 in 2016 and 2017.We expect China's copper needs to fall as real estate activity fades to a level more commensurate with underlying urbanization trends and power spending shifts away from copper-heavy distribution to copper-light transmission.On the supply side, cost deflation, a flattening of the cost curve, and rising scrap supplies all threaten prices.We see significant downside risk in copper mining stocks.Analysts: Jeffrey Stafford, CFA &amp; Daniel Rohr, CFA

The Outlook for Copper Prices Is Worse than Most Think

<ul><li>The precipitous slide in oil prices since fall 2014 has eroded the financial health of most exploration and production, or E&amp;P, firms.</li><li>Natural gas has been no safe haven either, with prices entrenched near 10- year lows.</li><li>Near-term fundamentals remain challenged for both commodities, and investors should be prepared for weak pricing to persist for much if not all of 2016&ndash;17.</li><li>As a result, many operators&mdash;who outspend cash flows even during the best of times&mdash;are currently hemorrhaging cash and seeing leverage rise to uncomfortable levels.</li><li>Investors are right to be concerned about whether the upstream space has the financial wherewithal to endure this sustained period of low oil and natural prices, and which firms might be casualties of such an environment.</li><li>Having analyzed the balance sheets, cost structures, and operations of our E&amp;P coverage list, we found that in the vast majority of cases, the E&amp;P firms we cover are well-equipped to cope with multiple years of low prices.</li><li>That's partly due to cost deflation and efficiency gains but most critically from the prompt utilization of capital markets earlier this year to prop up liquidity reserves.</li><li>To be sure, even within our coverage there exists a handful of firms that entered the downturn with too much leverage and hold lower quality assets&mdash;these are the few that may not emerge from the current environment unscathed.</li><li>But as a group, our E&amp;P universe seems more financially sound than headlines and investor sentiment might otherwise suggest.</li></ul>Analysts: David Meats, Mark Hanson CFA, Stephen Simko CFA, Brandon Hurst.Full report below the fold....

The precipitous slide in oil prices since fall 2014 has eroded the financial health of most exploration and production, or E&amp;P, firms.Natural gas has been no safe haven either, with prices entrenched near 10- year lows.Near-term fundamentals remain challenged for both commodities, and investors should be prepared for weak pricing to persist for much if not all of 2016&ndash;17.As a result, many operators&mdash;who outspend cash flows even during the best of times&mdash;are currently hemorrhaging cash and seeing leverage rise to uncomfortable levels.Investors are right to be concerned about whether the upstream space has the financial wherewithal to endure this sustained period of low oil and natural prices, and which firms might be casualties of such an environment.Having analyzed the balance sheets, cost structures, and operations of our E&amp;P coverage list, we found that in the vast majority of cases, the E&amp;P firms we cover are well-equipped to cope with multiple years of low prices.That's partly due to cost deflation and efficiency gains but most critically from the prompt utilization of capital markets earlier this year to prop up liquidity reserves.To be sure, even within our coverage there exists a handful of firms that entered the downturn with too much leverage and hold lower quality assets&mdash;these are the few that may not emerge from the current environment unscathed.But as a group, our E&amp;P universe seems more financially sound than headlines and investor sentiment might otherwise suggest.Analysts: David Meats, Mark Hanson CFA, Stephen Simko CFA, Brandon Hurst.Full report below the fold....

E&P Financial Health: Better Than You Think. Liquidity Reserves Will See Most Firms Through Downturn

Ex-Buyside Principal, now doing Independent Secondary Research on Indian Equities

Pawan Sachdeva

In preparing this insight, I have tried to compare ACC (as an Indian Cement Sector Proxy) to Holcim and Anhui Conch. &nbsp;<div><ul><li>I discuss Long Term trends of cement pricing in India, environmental issues and relative cost structures.&nbsp; </li><li>I believe that this work might aid fund managers / analysts in deriving a better view on the cement sector.&nbsp; </li><li>Cement Company Managements can also use this as an analysis framework to benchmark their own performance.&nbsp; </li><li>Lastly, I also try to raise thoughts on whether 2015-2020 is like 2003-2008 for the Indian stock market.&nbsp;</li></ul><blockquote>My work examines publicly available data spanning 15 years, going back to 1999.&nbsp;</blockquote></div>

In preparing this insight, I have tried to compare ACC (as an Indian Cement Sector Proxy) to Holcim and Anhui Conch. &nbsp;I discuss Long Term trends of cement pricing in India, environmental issues and relative cost structures.&nbsp; I believe that this work might aid fund managers / analysts in deriving a better view on the cement sector.&nbsp; Cement Company Managements can also use this as an analysis framework to benchmark their own performance.&nbsp; Lastly, I also try to raise thoughts on whether 2015-2020 is like 2003-2008 for the Indian stock market.&nbsp;My work examines publicly available data spanning 15 years, going back to 1999.&nbsp;

ACC, Holcim & Anhui Conch: A Cross-Country Benchmarking Study of Cement Sector Leaders

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/estia-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:77:1" rel="noopener">Estia Health (EHE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lian-beng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17636:1" rel="noopener">Lian Beng (LBG SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mincor-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6731:1" rel="noopener">Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - 111 Inc (YI US), Estia Health (EHE AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP). 
Lowest spreads - Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Lian Beng (LBG SP), Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU).


Merger Arb Mondays (24 Apr) - AAG Energy, Jiangnan, HKBN, Healius, Lian Beng, Toyo

China

China Hainan Rubber Industry Group Co.,Ltd. Produces, cultivates, process and sales natural rubber.  The Company's sector also includes E-commerce services, software development, agricultural cultivation, fertilizer sales, land leases, land development, livestock, and aquaculture industries.

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China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH)

What You Might Have Missed but Should Not on China's Supply-Side Reform

We have quite a few market surprises this year, especially from China, not to mention those from Middle East. Here I would like to mention a very...

Hao Wang, CFA

The Outlook for Copper Prices Is Worse than Most Think

The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further...

Morningstar, Inc.

E&P Financial Health: Better Than You Think. Liquidity Reserves Will See Most Firms Through Downturn

The precipitous slide in oil prices since fall 2014 has eroded the financial health of most exploration and production, or E&P, firms. Natural...

Morningstar, Inc.

ACC, Holcim & Anhui Conch: A Cross-Country Benchmarking Study of Cement Sector Leaders

In preparing this insight, I have tried to compare ACC (as an Indian Cement Sector Proxy) to Holcim and Anhui Conch. I discuss Long Term trends...

Pawan Sachdeva

Merger Arb Mondays (24 Apr) - AAG Energy, Jiangnan, HKBN, Healius, Lian Beng, Toyo

This week, the highest gross spreads are 111 (35.1%), Estia Health (14.5%), AAG Energy (13.5%), United Malt (7.8%), Origin Energy (7.3%), Toshiba...

Arun George

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