Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$19.2bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Tencent and ETFs stood out as large net buys.</li>
<li>I've thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, no banks showed in the top five net buys, and only 1 in the top ten.</li>
<li>It is somewhat perplexing that the flows just stopped. But that may be a sign of things to come. Confirmation may require a week or two.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$19.2bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Tencent and ETFs stood out as large net buys.
I've thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, no banks showed in the top five net buys, and only 1 in the top ten.
It is somewhat perplexing that the flows just stopped. But that may be a sign of things to come. Confirmation may require a week or two.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for ICBC (1398 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for ICBC (1398 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 19th): ICBC, China Hongqiao

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Equity ETF flows in China continued to lead Asia as the "National Team" in China supports market levels during the 3rd Plenum.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genscript-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21041:1" rel="noopener">Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boc-aviation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22689:1" rel="noopener">BOC Aviation (2588 HK)</a> saw positive news sentiment and share price movements for the week.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiumaojiu-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28293:1" rel="noopener">Jiumaojiu (9922 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aluminum-corporation-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6884:1" rel="noopener">Aluminum Corporation Of China (2600 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a> saw negative news sentiment and share price drops for the week.</li>
</ul>


Equity ETF flows in China continued to lead Asia as the "National Team" in China supports market levels during the 3rd Plenum.

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) , Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) and BOC Aviation (2588 HK) saw positive news sentiment and share price movements for the week.

Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) , Aluminum Corporation Of China (2600 HK) and China Hongqiao (1378 HK) saw negative news sentiment and share price drops for the week.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 19)

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 14th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Baba, Kuaishou, Lenovo, CCB, Yankuang Energy, AIA.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 14th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Baba, Kuaishou, Lenovo, CCB, Yankuang Energy, AIA.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Kuaishou, Lenovo, CCB, Yankuang Energy, AIA

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Resume coverage with BUY. On the back of tight global aluminum (Al) supply (capacity control in China &amp; disruption of bauxite supply) but rising demand (growth of EV &amp; solar power + stabilisation of construction demand following China’s U-turn on property policy), we forecast Al / alumina price to increase 4.5%/10% 2024E and to stay high in 2025E.</li><li>We believe Hongqiao (~9% global market share in terms of Al output in 2023) is set to benefit from unit margin expansion, thanks to its vertically integrated model with overseas bauxite equity interest, captive power plant and high percentage of molten Al products.</li><li>We forecast Hongqiao to deliver earnings growth of 61%/5% in 2024E/25E (6%/4% above Bloomberg consensus).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Resume coverage with BUY. On the back of tight global aluminum (Al) supply (capacity control in China &amp; disruption of bauxite supply) but rising demand (growth of EV &amp; solar power + stabilisation of construction demand following China’s U-turn on property policy), we forecast Al / alumina price to increase 4.5%/10% 2024E and to stay high in 2025E.We believe Hongqiao (~9% global market share in terms of Al output in 2023) is set to benefit from unit margin expansion, thanks to its vertically integrated model with overseas bauxite equity interest, captive power plant and high percentage of molten Al products.We forecast Hongqiao to deliver earnings growth of 61%/5% in 2024E/25E (6%/4% above Bloomberg consensus).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) - A Key Beneficiary of Tight Aluminum Supply Trading

China

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Hongqiao (1378 HK)

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

SOUTHBOUND saw significant net buying this past week but to no avail. HK stocks got crushed across the board. A-shares were up on the week, so it...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jul 19th): ICBC, China Hongqiao

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for ICBC (1398 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (July 19)

Equity ETF flows in China benefited from National Team buying this week. CK Infrastructure, Genscript Bio and BOC Aviation saw positive news...

David Mudd

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Kuaishou, Lenovo, CCB, Yankuang Energy, AIA

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 14th and highlight short interest changes in Baba, Kuaishou, Lenovo,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Hongqiao (1378 HK) - A Key Beneficiary of Tight Aluminum Supply Trading

We believe Hongqiao (~9% global market share in terms of Al output in 2023) is set to benefit from unit margin expansion, thanks to its vertically...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)