Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Brilliance China Automotive / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Bosideng International Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Amid the challenging market, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bosideng-international-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6537:1" rel="noopener">Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)</a>'s 15% growth in 1H FY23 profit is decent. Excluding impairments, operating profit would have grown by 31.3%.</li>
<li>It expects FY23 gross margin to expand and further store optimisation to enhance operating margin. The introduction of highly successful ultralight down jackets is an added driver.</li>
<li>With 32% increase in online branded apparel sales, the channel will be Bosideng's key growth impetus. For "double-11", sales have outperformed peers significantly, showcasing its product strengths.</li>
</ul>


Amid the challenging market, Bosideng International Holdings (3998 HK)'s 15% growth in 1H FY23 profit is decent. Excluding impairments, operating profit would have grown by 31.3%.
It expects FY23 gross margin to expand and further store optimisation to enhance operating margin. The introduction of highly successful ultralight down jackets is an added driver.
With 32% increase in online branded apparel sales, the channel will be Bosideng's key growth impetus. For "double-11", sales have outperformed peers significantly, showcasing its product strengths.


Bosideng (3998 HK): Decent Result Distorted by Impairment Losses

<ul>
<li>We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.</li>
<li>Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.
Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.</li>
<li>Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.
Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The offeror and acceptances reached 46.04%, just short of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. The offeror has decided to let the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a> offer lapse.</li>
<li>The offer fell short of the 50% threshold as the Cheng family mistakenly assumed that shareholders behind Halycon's stake were friendly shares, which would support the offer.</li>
<li>The downside will be muted as the shares are trading in line with the 1-year average forward P/E, minorities thought the offer was low, and David Webb is a buyer.</li>
</ul>


The offeror and acceptances reached 46.04%, just short of the 50% minimum acceptance condition. The offeror has decided to let the Giordano International (709 HK) offer lapse.
The offer fell short of the 50% threshold as the Cheng family mistakenly assumed that shareholders behind Halycon's stake were friendly shares, which would support the offer.
The downside will be muted as the shares are trading in line with the 1-year average forward P/E, minorities thought the offer was low, and David Webb is a buyer.


China

China Lilang Ltd. manufactures men's clothing and accessories.  The company produces suits, jackets, shirts, trousers, sweaters, and accessories.

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China Lilang (1234 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

Bosideng (3998 HK): Decent Result Distorted by Impairment Losses

Bosideng actually has a decent 1H FY23 result and gross margin should expand for full-year FY23. Its efforts on store optimisation, new product...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

We see 3 inclusions for the index in Dec, and then 26 adds/16 deletions in March. Following the March rebal, we see 22 adds/37 deletions for Stock...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

There could be 3 adds in December while there will be MANY more changes in March. The adds should outnumber the deletes, but there will be many...

Brian Freitas

Giordano’s VGO Lapses

The downside will be muted as the shares are trading in line with the 1-year average forward P/E, minorities thought the offer was low, and David...

Arun George

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