HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The A-H share premium has narrowed by an average of 35pp YTD. Despite the recent A-share recovery, the premium remains depressed relative to the start of the year.</li>
<li>Aggressive players may keep playing the leaders in the trend - the Chinese insurers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-life-insurance-co-ltd-9f877d22-7cf7-4b00-b525-cec71139f369" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5794:1" rel="noopener">China Life (2628 HK)</a> and securities companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guolian-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:535:1" rel="noopener">Guolian Minsheng Securities H (1456 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Conservative players, however, may look at the laggards in AH premium contraction like the Chinese banks - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The A-H share premium has narrowed by an average of 35pp YTD. Despite the recent A-share recovery, the premium remains depressed relative to the start of the year.
Aggressive players may keep playing the leaders in the trend - the Chinese insurers like China Life (2628 HK) and securities companies like Guolian Minsheng Securities H (1456 HK). 
Conservative players, however, may look at the laggards in AH premium contraction like the Chinese banks - ICBC (H) (1398 HK) and China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK). 


China Strategy: Trading the A-H Premium Stocks

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.0% as of Aug 22nd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, real estate, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium, Fuyao Glass.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.0% as of Aug 22nd.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, real estate, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium, Fuyao Glass.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 22nd): Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium, Fuyao Glass

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 54.6% as of Aug 15th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -4.2ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, financials, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun Pharma.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 54.6% as of Aug 15th.
The average A-H premium changed by -4.2ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, financials, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun Pharma.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 15th): MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun Pharma

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.9% as of Aug 8th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.3ppt week-on-week, led by materials, health care, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Metallurgical Corporation Of China, Shandong Gold Mining, China Shenhua Energy, Tianqi Lithium.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 58.9% as of Aug 8th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.3ppt week-on-week, led by materials, health care, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Metallurgical Corporation Of China, Shandong Gold Mining, China Shenhua Energy, Tianqi Lithium.


A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 8th): Metallurgical Corporation Of China, Shandong Gold Mining

<ul>
<li>For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. </li>
<li>The best growth rates are at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC Intl (1308 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The worst ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel Intl (308 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free (1880 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin (2343 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. 
The best growth rates are at China National Building Material (3323 HK), CICC (3908 HK), Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK), Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), and SITC Intl (1308 HK). 
The worst ones are China Travel Intl (308 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), CTG Duty Free (1880 HK), and Pacific Basin (2343 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

China

China Longyuan Power Group Corp Ltd designs, develops, manages, and operates wind farms.  The Company also sells the electricity generated by the wind farms.

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China Longyuan Power (916 HK)

China Strategy: Trading the A-H Premium Stocks

The A-H share premium has narrowed by 35pp YTD, with Chinese insurers and securities companies leading the trend for aggressive players, while...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 22nd): Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium, Fuyao Glass

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 15th): MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun Pharma

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 8th): Metallurgical Corporation Of China, Shandong Gold Mining

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Metallurgical Corporation Of China, Shandong Gold Mining,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Strategy: Trading the A-H Premium Stocks

​The A-H share premium has narrowed by 35pp YTD, with Chinese insurers and securities companies leading the trend for aggressive players, while...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 22nd): Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium, Fuyao Glass

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Air China, Cosco Shipping Development, Ganfeng Lithium,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 15th): MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun Pharma

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for MCC, Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, Csc Financial, Fosun...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 8th): Metallurgical Corporation Of China, Shandong Gold Mining

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Metallurgical Corporation Of China, Shandong Gold Mining,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The A-H share premium has narrowed by 35pp YTD, with Chinese insurers and securities companies leading the trend for aggressive players, while...