Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 14th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were China Feihe (6186 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK), Sinopec (386 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Xiaomi (1810 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 14th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were China Feihe (6186 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK), Sinopec (386 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Xiaomi (1810 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK), Cosco Shipping (1919 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 14th): China Feihe, Cosco Shipping, Sinopec

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

China Shengmu Organic Milk / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Based on the Offer Price of HK$0.35, P/B is 0.69x. This valuation level is lower than the historical average and also has a certain discount compared to the industry average.</li>
<li>CSM's net profit may return to positive by 2026. After profitability returns to normal, its P/B ratio is expected to approach 0.8-1x at least. Then reasonable valuation level is HK$0.41-0.51/share.</li>
<li>Since minorities representing 18.74% of CSM outstanding shares needs to tender to hit the “50% hurdle”, this brings uncertainties as the Offer Price may not be attractive to some minorities.</li>
</ul>


Based on the Offer Price of HK$0.35, P/B is 0.69x. This valuation level is lower than the historical average and also has a certain discount compared to the industry average.
CSM's net profit may return to positive by 2026. After profitability returns to normal, its P/B ratio is expected to approach 0.8-1x at least. Then reasonable valuation level is HK$0.41-0.51/share.
Since minorities representing 18.74% of CSM outstanding shares needs to tender to hit the “50% hurdle”, this brings uncertainties as the Offer Price may not be attractive to some minorities.


China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) To Acquire China Shengmu (1432 HK) - The Offer Price Is Not Attractive

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

China Shengmu Organic Milk / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 30 October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-modern-dairy-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6785:1" rel="noopener">China Modern Dairy (1117 HK)</a> announced a conditional share purchase agreement to acquire 1.28% of outstanding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shengmu-organic-milk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12714:1" rel="noopener">China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK)</a> shares at HK$0.35 per share. </li>
<li>The SPA is conditional on SAMR and independent CMD shareholder approval. SPA completion will trigger a mandatory conditional cash offer at HK$0.35 per share.</li>
<li>Post-Completion, CMD and concert parties will hold a 31.26% stake. The offer is conditional on a 50% minimum acceptance condition, which is problematic as the offer is not particularly attractive.  </li>
</ul>


On 30 October, China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) announced a conditional share purchase agreement to acquire 1.28% of outstanding China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK) shares at HK$0.35 per share. 
The SPA is conditional on SAMR and independent CMD shareholder approval. SPA completion will trigger a mandatory conditional cash offer at HK$0.35 per share.
Post-Completion, CMD and concert parties will hold a 31.26% stake. The offer is conditional on a 50% minimum acceptance condition, which is problematic as the offer is not particularly attractive.  


China Shengmu (1432 HK): Possible Offer, Potentially Problematic 50% Min Acceptance Condition

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 30th October, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-modern-dairy-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6785:1" rel="noopener">China Modern Dairy (1117 HK)</a></strong> (CMD) entered into a conditional SPA to acquire a 1.28% stake in raw milk producer <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shengmu-organic-milk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12714:1" rel="noopener">China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK)</a></strong> (CSM). </li>
<li>CMD currently holds 29.99% in CSM. Should the SPA complete, CMD clears 30% and will be obligated to make an Offer for all shares not held. </li>
<li>The Offer Price will be A$0.35/share, a 14.75% premium to undisturbed. The Offer will be conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. </li>
</ul>


On the 30th October, China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) (CMD) entered into a conditional SPA to acquire a 1.28% stake in raw milk producer China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK) (CSM). 
CMD currently holds 29.99% in CSM. Should the SPA complete, CMD clears 30% and will be obligated to make an Offer for all shares not held. 
The Offer Price will be A$0.35/share, a 14.75% premium to undisturbed. The Offer will be conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. 


On China Shengmu (1432)'s Conditional MGO

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 7th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Cosco Shipping (1919 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK), Sinopec (386 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Nov 7th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Cosco Shipping (1919 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK), Sinopec (386 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Xiaomi (1810 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 7th): Cosco Shipping, China Feihe, Sinopec

China

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes quality dairy products in China. The principal products are liquid milk products, ice cream, and other dairy products, such as milk powder. The Company markets its products under its primary MENGNIU core brand.

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China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 14th): China Feihe, Cosco Shipping, Sinopec

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were China Feihe (6186...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Modern Dairy (1117 HK) To Acquire China Shengmu (1432 HK) - The Offer Price Is Not Attractive

The Offer Price of HK$0.35 is low. Reasonable range is HK$0.41-0.51/share after CSM's profitability returns to normal by 2026. Uncertainties arise...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Shengmu (1432 HK): Possible Offer, Potentially Problematic 50% Min Acceptance Condition

Post-Completion, CMD and concert parties will hold a 31.26% stake. The offer is conditional on a 50% minimum acceptance condition, which is...

Arun George

On China Shengmu (1432)'s Conditional MGO

Trading at a 6%/14% gross/annual. spread assuming payment in late April. I don't have a strong conviction on the back-end. There's a good chance...

David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Nov 7th): Cosco Shipping, China Feihe, Sinopec

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Cosco Shipping...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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