Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The theme for global banks is one of lowered credit costs, improved loan demand and better fee income. The comparative to last year should be exceptional for many banks. Where flu season ends in about two months and with vaccinations starting, this further improves the economic outlook, and therefore credit risk of banks.

The theme for global banks is one of lowered credit costs, improved loan demand and better fee income. The comparative to last year should be exceptional for many banks. Where flu season ends in about two months and with vaccinations starting, this further improves the economic outlook, and therefore credit risk of banks. 

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on INDUSTRIAL BANK, YANTAI JEREH OILFIELD SERVICES, XIAMEN TUNGSTEN, KUNLUN TECH, CHONGQING ZHIFEI BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, GIANT NETWORK, CHINA SHENHUA ENERGY, Xinjiang Daqo.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on INDUSTRIAL BANK, YANTAI JEREH OILFIELD SERVICES, XIAMEN TUNGSTEN, KUNLUN TECH, CHONGQING ZHIFEI BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, GIANT NETWORK, CHINA SHENHUA ENERGY, Xinjiang Daqo.


CSI 300 Index Earning Revision (Jun): INDUSTRIAL BANK, YANTAI JEREH OILFIELD SERVICES, KUNLUN TECH

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Yongcheng Coal Default: According to Shanghai Clearing House, Yongcheng Coal and Electricity (YCE) in Henan Province failed to repay a CNY 1 bn (USD 151 mn) short-term bond despite being given the highest rating by one of mainland China’s awful domestic credit ratings agencies; and*Watch Your Banks: The yield on benchmark five-year “AAA” rated mainland Chinese corporates was 3.99% - up over 100 bp from their April 2020 low. Investor flight is pushing financing costs higher and squeezing local corporate funding in a market which is just barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns remain over higher problem loans as debt service risk is heightened over higher rates, unreliable financial statements and ratings agency reports, and now an inability to refinance public debt with a number of bond sales being canceled. Further, the degradation of corporate bond values is limiting their usage as collateral.

*Yongcheng Coal Default: According to Shanghai Clearing House, Yongcheng Coal and Electricity (YCE) in Henan Province failed to repay a CNY 1 bn (USD 151 mn) short-term bond despite being given the highest rating by one of mainland China’s awful domestic credit ratings agencies; and*Watch Your Banks: The yield on benchmark five-year “AAA” rated mainland Chinese corporates was 3.99% - up over 100 bp from their April 2020 low. Investor flight is pushing financing costs higher and squeezing local corporate funding in a market which is just barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns remain over higher problem loans as debt service risk is heightened over higher rates, unreliable financial statements and ratings agency reports, and now an inability to refinance public debt with a number of bond sales being canceled. Further, the degradation of corporate bond values is limiting their usage as collateral.

There are few banks that compare to those in China on controlling costs. This will likely be the way forward for others in Asia and globally. Where some have seen costs/assets down considerably and to low levels in any context, others have more room to cut. Of the largest banks by assets, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:714:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH)</a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-bank-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:681:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Bank Co Ltd A (000001 CH)</a> have seen the least improvement in costs/assets over the past nine years – and where this ratio remains high compared with peers.

There are few banks that compare to those in China on controlling costs. This will likely be the way forward for others in Asia and globally. Where some have seen costs/assets down considerably and to low levels in any context, others have more room to cut. Of the largest banks by assets, Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK),China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH)and Ping An Bank Co Ltd A (000001 CH) have seen the least improvement in costs/assets over the past nine years – and where this ratio remains high compared with peers. 

China

China Merchants Bank is a joint-stock commercial bank offering comprehensive financial services, including corporate and retail banking, investment banking, wealth management, and insurance. It provides products such as deposits, loans, credit cards, and online banking services. The bank was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

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China Merchants Bank (3968 HK)

Banks - A Turning Point

The theme for global banks is one of lowered credit costs, improved loan demand and better fee income. The comparative to last year should be...

Daniel Tabbush

CSI 300 Index Earning Revision (Jun): INDUSTRIAL BANK, YANTAI JEREH OILFIELD SERVICES, KUNLUN TECH

We analyzed CSI 300's consensus for Jun 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in INDUSTRIAL BANK (601166 CH), YANTAI JEREH OILFIELD SERVICES (002353...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bullish Inflections Around The World

In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials & Energy Sectors.

Vermilion Research

Another Day, Another Default

MAINLAND CHINA DEFAULT: Yongcheng Coal Defaulted On Its Debt, Leading To Concerns About The Credibility Of AAA Rated Corporates In Mainland China...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Banks – Controlling Costs

China banks are ahead on controlling costs. This will likely be the way for others in Asia and globally. PSBC, CMB and Ping An Bank have seen the...

Daniel Tabbush

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