Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The stealth bull market in HK listed Chinese banks continues.</li>
<li>While the negatives are well known, the positives are underappreciated</li>
<li>We tweak the basket of bank stocks after they report Q1 results</li>
</ul>


The stealth bull market in HK listed Chinese banks continues.
While the negatives are well known, the positives are underappreciated
We tweak the basket of bank stocks after they report Q1 results


China’s Banks: The Quiet Bull Market No One’s Watching

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.1% as of Sep 18th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, communication services, information technology and offset by consumer discretionary, utilities, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Minsheng Bank, Air China, Ceb Bank, China East Air.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 85.1% as of Sep 18th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, communication services, information technology and offset by consumer discretionary, utilities, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Minsheng Bank, Air China, Ceb Bank, China East Air.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 18th): Minsheng Bank, Air China, Ceb Bank, China East Air

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>The investment world has turned upside down where established norms have gone into reverse.</li>
<li>The new investing environment needs to be paid attention to.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The investment world has turned upside down where established norms have gone into reverse.
The new investing environment needs to be paid attention to.


<ul>
<li>One key element was the linking of consumption to the wealth effect</li>
<li>Continuation of targeted support for certain vulnerable sections of society</li>
<li>Tactical changes as well as structural ones to support consumption longer-term</li>
</ul>


One key element was the linking of consumption to the wealth effect
Continuation of targeted support for certain vulnerable sections of society
Tactical changes as well as structural ones to support consumption longer-term


China Consumption Plan: How Special Is This “Special Plan”?

China

China Merchants Bank is a joint-stock commercial bank offering comprehensive financial services, including corporate and retail banking, investment banking, wealth management, and insurance. It provides products such as deposits, loans, credit cards, and online banking services. The bank was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Merchants Bank (3968 HK)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

China’s Banks: The Quiet Bull Market No One’s Watching

The article discusses the ongoing stealth bull market in Hong Kong listed Chinese banks, highlighting the underappreciated positives and...

Rikki Malik

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 18th): Minsheng Bank, Air China, Ceb Bank, China East Air

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Minsheng Bank, Air China, Ceb Bank, China East Air.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Overview#20 - Welcome to Bizzaro World!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. The new investing landscape is a complete reversal of what has worked...

Rikki Malik

China Consumption Plan: How Special Is This “Special Plan”?

One key new element is the linking consumption to the wealth effect, while continuing targeted support for vulnerable groups and structural changes

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

China’s Banks: The Quiet Bull Market No One’s Watching

​The article discusses the ongoing stealth bull market in Hong Kong listed Chinese banks, highlighting the underappreciated positives and...

Rikki Malik

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 18th): Minsheng Bank, Air China, Ceb Bank, China East Air

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Minsheng Bank, Air China, Ceb Bank, China East Air.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Overview#20 - Welcome to Bizzaro World!

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. The new investing landscape is a complete reversal of what has worked...

Rikki Malik

China Consumption Plan: How Special Is This “Special Plan”?

One key new element is the linking consumption to the wealth effect, while continuing targeted support for vulnerable groups and structural changes

Rikki Malik

The article discusses the ongoing stealth bull market in Hong Kong listed Chinese banks, highlighting the underappreciated positives and...