Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>So far in 2023 TS Lines has sold off close to one quarter of its shipping capacity</li>
<li>In the company's core market, Intra-Asia, it appears rates have bottomed out here in Q323</li>
<li>We also review Q2 financial results from TS Lines' main comp, Wan Hai Lines (WHL)</li>
</ul>


So far in 2023 TS Lines has sold off close to one quarter of its shipping capacity
In the company's core market, Intra-Asia, it appears rates have bottomed out here in Q323
We also review Q2 financial results from TS Lines' main comp, Wan Hai Lines (WHL)


TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rates remain depressed but stable, and easier Y/Y comps will arrive in late Summer</li>
<li>Fuel costs should be a tailwind in Q2 results; Danish giant Maersk reports on August 4th</li>
<li>We expect Q2/H1 results to support our view that the worst of the storm has passed</li>
</ul>


Rates remain depressed but stable, and easier Y/Y comps will arrive in late Summer
Fuel costs should be a tailwind in Q2 results; Danish giant Maersk reports on August 4th
We expect Q2/H1 results to support our view that the worst of the storm has passed


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Depressed, Stable | Worst of 'Storm' Passed (July 2023)

<ul>
<li>Our index suggests long-haul rates remained stable in May as carriers approach peak season</li>
<li>Cleanup of West Coast slowdown, lower fuel prices should both serve as Summer tailwinds</li>
<li>We believe conditions could improve in H2 2023, and shares remain cheap on Price / Assets</li>
</ul>


Our index suggests long-haul rates remained stable in May as carriers approach peak season
Cleanup of West Coast slowdown, lower fuel prices should both serve as Summer tailwinds
We believe conditions could improve in H2 2023, and shares remain cheap on Price / Assets


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower  (June 2023)

<ul>
<li>Declines in carrier revenues and pricing continued to moderate in April</li>
<li>Inbound to N. America container volume declines also eased in April</li>
<li>Lower fuel prices a tailwind in '23, shares cheap, we retain our +ive sector view </li>
</ul>


Declines in carrier revenues and pricing continued to moderate in April
Inbound to N. America container volume declines also eased in April
Lower fuel prices a tailwind in '23, shares cheap, we retain our +ive sector view 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price, Volume Declines Moderate | Fuel=Tailwind (May 2023)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is no immediate impact of termination of 2M Alliance between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ap-moller-maersk-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24755:1" rel="noopener">Ap Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC)</a> and Mediterranean Shipping Company in 2025, but there are some long-term implications.</li>
<li>The change in competitive landscape will add uncertain operating variables to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> as there is possibility of stiffer industry competition. </li>
<li>Port companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-ports-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:360:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-port-holdings-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15155:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Port (144 HK)</a> may see improvement in their relative bargaining power, with potentially lower bulk volume discounts offered. </li>
</ul>


There is no immediate impact of termination of 2M Alliance between Ap Moller - Maersk A/S (MAERSKA DC) and Mediterranean Shipping Company in 2025, but there are some long-term implications.
The change in competitive landscape will add uncertain operating variables to COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK) and Orient Overseas International (316 HK) as there is possibility of stiffer industry competition. 
Port companies like Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) and China Merchants Port (144 HK) may see improvement in their relative bargaining power, with potentially lower bulk volume discounts offered. 


China Shipping Sector: Impacts of the Termination of 2M Alliance

Hong Kong

China Merchants Holdings International Company Limited, through its subsidiaries and associated companies, operates container and cargo terminals, port transportation, and airport cargo handling.  The Company also manufactures containers, paint, and trailers as well as operates toll road, shipping, property, and dealing securities businesses.

China Merchants Port (144 HK)

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Slimming Down Fleet | Intra-Asia Market Update | Latest From Key Comp Wan Hai

So far in 2023 TS Lines has exited trades and sold off a chunk of its fleet. Intra-Asian market conditions may have bottomed, and we will know soon...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Depressed, Stable | Worst of 'Storm' Passed (July 2023)

Our research tracking container rates and profitability suggests that the worst of the storm has passed, and that we should see easier Y/Y comps...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Strike Averted | Fuel Prices Lower (June 2023)

We are gaining conviction in our view that market conditions have bottomed for long-haul carriers, and that their shares appear depressed compared...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price, Volume Declines Moderate | Fuel=Tailwind (May 2023)

April numbers show Y/Y declines in revenue and throughput are moderating. In addition, lower fuel prices could provide a tailwind in the remainder...

Tracking Traffic

China Shipping Sector: Impacts of the Termination of 2M Alliance

Termination of 2M Alliance may mean stiffer competition to be faced by Cosco Holdings and OOIL. Meanwhile, port companies like Cosco Shipping Port...

Osbert Tang, CFA