China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

It was announced early Asia morning that the MSCI would not be including China in the Emerging Market Index.  While China had clearly hoped for inclusion at the annual, there were signs pointing to this as the outcome.  There are a number of important market factors to include going forward.First, it was MSCI exclusion that triggered the July 2015 collapse in A-share prices.  Though no Chinese indexes are nearly as frothy as in June 2015, there will be significant additional downward pressure on…

It was announced early Asia morning that the MSCI would not be including China in the Emerging Market Index.  While China had clearly hoped for inclusion at the annual, there were signs pointing to this as the outcome.  There are a number of important market factors to include going forward.First, it was MSCI exclusion that triggered the July 2015 collapse in A-share prices.  Though no Chinese indexes are nearly as frothy as in June 2015, there will be significant additional downward pressure on…

What MSCI Rejection Means for Chinese Indexes and the RMB

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Heavy capital investment in previous years and government support helped the Chinese economy in previous years to grow, while this year seems to be difficult for the economy in general. Listed companies however, seemingly in line with other underlying trends, demonstrated moderate growth but with significant divergence across industries.Cumulative operating income of major industrial sectors inched up but with wide industrial variation. Heavy industry is experiencing generally flat to…

Heavy capital investment in previous years and government support helped the Chinese economy in previous years to grow, while this year seems to be difficult for the economy in general. Listed companies however, seemingly in line with other underlying trends, demonstrated moderate growth but with significant divergence across industries.Cumulative operating income of major industrial sectors inched up but with wide industrial variation. Heavy industry is experiencing generally flat to…

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

There is a problem with official statistics in China. Put simply, they cannot be relied upon. From coal consumption, steel or iron ore production, the quality of groundwater, or even the figures for GDP, the official statistics rarely tell the full story. Officials have been found faking the figures and often selling inside information to the highest bidder. Although general trends can sometimes be right, good policies depend on accurate information.

There is a problem with official statistics in China. Put simply, they cannot be relied upon. From coal consumption, steel or iron ore production, the quality of groundwater, or even the figures for GDP, the official statistics rarely tell the full story. Officials have been found faking the figures and often selling inside information to the highest bidder. Although general trends can sometimes be right, good policies depend on accurate information.

Two interesting developments have affected China’s international financial standing in recent months. The first is that the yuan – China’s currency – has over the last year become <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-01/yuan-s-shrinking-share-erodes-pboc-s-efforts-to-push-global-use" target="_blank">far less used in international payments</a>. A few years ago it represented about 0.5% of all settlements. By last year this had risen to 2.79%, which made it the fourth most active currency in global payments.This coincided with moves to make it a component of the SDR currency basket, and by implication a potential…

Two interesting developments have affected China’s international financial standing in recent months. The first is that the yuan – China’s currency – has over the last year become far less used in international payments. A few years ago it represented about 0.5% of all settlements. By last year this had risen to 2.79%, which made it the fourth most active currency in global payments.This coincided with moves to make it a component of the SDR currency basket, and by implication a potential…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

We examine interest coverage in the corporate sector for several countries in Asia; given the broad range of interest coverage across Asia by country and by sector, simple averages are hugely misleading.What matters from the perspective of a bank analysis, is how prominently debt-laden companies feature with low levels of interest cover. This is where the analysis can be helpful in considering the outlook for NPL formation and credit costs.<div class="content-highlight"> India stands out in absolute terms, but also in the…</div>

We examine interest coverage in the corporate sector for several countries in Asia; given the broad range of interest coverage across Asia by country and by sector, simple averages are hugely misleading.What matters from the perspective of a bank analysis, is how prominently debt-laden companies feature with low levels of interest cover. This is where the analysis can be helpful in considering the outlook for NPL formation and credit costs. India stands out in absolute terms, but also in the…

Asia - Interest Coverage Data Is Dire for India, and China

China

China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. is a financial services company primarily engaged in securities businesses. It offers a broad range of services including brokerage and wealth management, investment banking, investment management, and investment and trading of various financial products. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

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China Merchants Securities (6099 HK)

What MSCI Rejection Means for Chinese Indexes and the RMB

It was announced early Asia morning that the MSCI would not be including China in the Emerging Market Index. While China had clearly hoped for...

Christopher Balding

China Listed Firms Q1 Summary

Heavy capital investment in previous years and government support helped the Chinese economy in previous years to grow, while this year seems to be...

Christopher Balding

Getting the Detail Right in China

There is a problem with official statistics in China. Put simply, they cannot be relied upon. From coal consumption, steel or iron ore production,...

Bixmoor

China's International Financial Position

Two interesting developments have affected China’s international financial standing in recent months. The first is that the yuan – China’s currency...

Bixmoor

Asia - Interest Coverage Data Is Dire for India, and China

We examine interest coverage in the corporate sector for several countries in Asia; given the broad range of interest coverage across Asia by...

Daniel Tabbush

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