Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers</li>
<li>The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24</li>
<li>The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24</li>
</ul>


Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers
The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24
The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24


Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward and which are the better positioned banks to confront the challenge</li>
<li>China bank shares’ PBV ratios have eroded over time, due to low growth and credit quality concerns; yet through our analysis of these bank, we see selective contrarian positive opportunities</li>
<li>CCB is a core GEM bank buy for its deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheet; Ping An Bank is the deep value contrarian pick; Minsheng is our fundamental sell</li>
</ul>


In this China banks screen, we focus on the credit quality headwinds going forward and which are the better positioned banks to confront the challenge
China bank shares’ PBV ratios have eroded over time, due to low growth and credit quality concerns; yet through our analysis of these bank, we see selective contrarian positive opportunities
CCB is a core GEM bank buy for its deeply discounted valuations and strong balance sheet; Ping An Bank is the deep value contrarian pick; Minsheng is our fundamental sell


China Banks; Challenged on Credit Quality Trends, with Selective Opportunities to Be Found

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Chinese banks are under strain as their deposits shrink in the wake of a regulatory crackdown on offering deposit rates higher than regulatory caps.</li><li>In the first half of the year, many Chinese mainland-listed commercial banks saw a decline in their net cash flow generated from operating activities — a key indicator of lenders’ liquidity — Caixin calculations based on their interim reports show.</li><li>Among China’s “Big Six” state-owned banks by assets, only Postal Savings Bank of China Co.</li></ul>

Chinese banks are under strain as their deposits shrink in the wake of a regulatory crackdown on offering deposit rates higher than regulatory caps.In the first half of the year, many Chinese mainland-listed commercial banks saw a decline in their net cash flow generated from operating activities — a key indicator of lenders’ liquidity — Caixin calculations based on their interim reports show.Among China’s “Big Six” state-owned banks by assets, only Postal Savings Bank of China Co.

Chinese Banks’ Cash Flow Plummets After Crackdown on High Deposit Rates 

<ul>
<li>With many real estate developers in China reporting losses, and with greater clarity of their woes, there should be flow through to banks. </li>
<li>Generally, at the top line and in head line bad loans, this is simply not visible, so that one must look to notes to financial statements, other granular data.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a> shows restructured loans up from RMB41bn to RMB61bn in just six months, with many China banks showing far higher loss loans</li>
</ul>


With many real estate developers in China reporting losses, and with greater clarity of their woes, there should be flow through to banks. 
Generally, at the top line and in head line bad loans, this is simply not visible, so that one must look to notes to financial statements, other granular data.

Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK) shows restructured loans up from RMB41bn to RMB61bn in just six months, with many China banks showing far higher loss loans


China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Genetic resources / Cover Story: China set to ease controls on genetic resources to plug biotech innovation gap</li><li>Iran /: Xi offers his condolences after lran’s President dies in helicopter crash</li><li>Corruption /: China’s minister of agriculture investigated for corruption</li></ul>

Genetic resources / Cover Story: China set to ease controls on genetic resources to plug biotech innovation gapIran /: Xi offers his condolences after lran’s President dies in helicopter crashCorruption /: China’s minister of agriculture investigated for corruption

CX Daily: China set to ease controls on genetic resources to plug biotech innovation gap 

China

China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. operates in commercial banking businesses. The Bank provides deposit, loan, settlement, discount, financial bond issuance, government bond underwriting and trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related financial services.

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China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK)

Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Granular data for Hang Seng Bank provides a good window of underlying credit metrics in both Hong Kong and China, which may not be well visible in...

Daniel Tabbush

China Banks; Challenged on Credit Quality Trends, with Selective Opportunities to Be Found

Chinese banks' credit quality hurdles create opportunities; CCB is a core bank buy for its discounted valuations and strong balance sheet; Ping An...

Victor Galliano

Chinese Banks’ Cash Flow Plummets After Crackdown on High Deposit Rates

Chinese banks are under strain as their deposits shrink in the wake of a regulatory crackdown on offering deposit rates higher than regulatory...

Caixin Global

China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

There are losses at China developers and some of this is new or losses are much higher. This is not fully reflected in headline figures at China...

Daniel Tabbush

CX Daily: China set to ease controls on genetic resources to plug biotech innovation gap

Genetic resources / Cover Story: China set to ease controls on genetic resources to plug biotech innovation gap China is poised to relax its...

Caixin Global

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