Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our analysis of quarterly returns of each Asian market and each of the sectors within them shows clear cyclical patterns of performance, driven, we believe, by market/sector rotation by investors.</li>
<li>These cyclical patterns indicate that in the near-term, investors could rotate out of onshore China, India, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand and rotate into Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Philippines.</li>
<li>Korean Technology, Financials and Industrials, Hong Kong Energy, Communications and Technology Services, and Malaysian and Philippines Industrial Services are the secularly outperforming sectors among these likely beneficiary sectors.  </li>
</ul>


Our analysis of quarterly returns of each Asian market and each of the sectors within them shows clear cyclical patterns of performance, driven, we believe, by market/sector rotation by investors.
These cyclical patterns indicate that in the near-term, investors could rotate out of onshore China, India, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand and rotate into Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and Philippines.
Korean Technology, Financials and Industrials, Hong Kong Energy, Communications and Technology Services, and Malaysian and Philippines Industrial Services are the secularly outperforming sectors among these likely beneficiary sectors.  


Asian Equities: Cyclical Patterns and Sector/Market Rotations Tell Us Where to Look Next

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Although lower interest rates will benefit the technology sector more, many investors will still opt for high-yield stocks to protect their income stream.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Prop (101 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-hongqiao-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1909:1" rel="noopener">China Hongqiao (1378 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-international-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/henderson-land-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:376:1" rel="noopener">Henderson Land (12 HK)</a> are the top 5 high-yield HSI constituents.</li>
<li>Mainland China banks no longer made the list, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> remain attractive at 5.7% and 5.6%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Although lower interest rates will benefit the technology sector more, many investors will still opt for high-yield stocks to protect their income stream.

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK), Hang Lung Prop (101 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK), and Henderson Land (12 HK) are the top 5 high-yield HSI constituents.
Mainland China banks no longer made the list, but ICBC (H) (1398 HK) and Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) remain attractive at 5.7% and 5.6%, respectively.


HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has significantly outperformed the Hong Kong indexes in June and since inception. Outperformance range is 17% to 23% since inception.</li>
<li>At the end of June, we sold positions in the tech sector after substantial gains. The portfolio's exposure to the consumption sector was also trimmed, both discretionary and staples.</li>
<li>The portfolio added exposure to the metals refining sector and initiated positions in conglomerates <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-industrial-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1447:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Industrial Holdings (363 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citic-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20590:1" rel="noopener">Citic Ltd (267 HK)</a> .</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has significantly outperformed the Hong Kong indexes in June and since inception. Outperformance range is 17% to 23% since inception.
At the end of June, we sold positions in the tech sector after substantial gains. The portfolio's exposure to the consumption sector was also trimmed, both discretionary and staples.
The portfolio added exposure to the metals refining sector and initiated positions in conglomerates Shanghai Industrial Holdings (363 HK) and Citic Ltd (267 HK) .


<ul>
<li>In May, onshore Chinese investors bought US$5.85bn of HK-listed stocks, down sharply from the $19-21 bn net buying range of the past three months. The favorite stocks also changed sharply.</li>
<li>The hitherto Southbound favorites, Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi were sold down. Onshore investors’ current favorites seem to be the high dividend yield stocks, particularly China Mobile, CNOOC, China Construction Bank.</li>
<li>Competitive pressures crashed food delivery and EV share prices. But Southbound investors seem to see these share price drawdowns as buying opportunities. Meituan, Li Auto were bought in significant measure.</li>
</ul>


In May, onshore Chinese investors bought US$5.85bn of HK-listed stocks, down sharply from the $19-21 bn net buying range of the past three months. The favorite stocks also changed sharply.
The hitherto Southbound favorites, Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi were sold down. Onshore investors’ current favorites seem to be the high dividend yield stocks, particularly China Mobile, CNOOC, China Construction Bank.
Competitive pressures crashed food delivery and EV share prices. But Southbound investors seem to see these share price drawdowns as buying opportunities. Meituan, Li Auto were bought in significant measure.


Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark in May by 3%, however it has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 3 to 19% since its launch 8 months ago.  </li>
<li>We continue to increase portfolio exposure to the consumption sector.  We have added <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-pictures-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20724:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongan-online-p-c-insurance-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23681:1" rel="noopener">ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance C (6060 HK)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK).</a>
</li>
<li>At the end of May we sold positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsoft-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:492:1" rel="noopener">Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153:1" rel="noopener">Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK)</a>. We reduced  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lingbao-gold-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19056:1" rel="noopener">Lingbao Gold Co Ltd H (3330 HK)</a> .</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark in May by 3%, however it has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 3 to 19% since its launch 8 months ago.  
We continue to increase portfolio exposure to the consumption sector.  We have added Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK), ZhongAn Online P&amp;C Insurance C (6060 HK) &amp; Sun Art Retail (6808 HK).

At the end of May we sold positions in Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) and Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK). We reduced  Lingbao Gold Co Ltd H (3330 HK) .


Hong Kong

China Mobile is a Chinese state-owned telecommunications company that provides mobile voice, data, and multimedia services through its extensive nationwide network across mainland China and Hong Kong. It also offers fixed-line broadband, enterprise solutions, and cloud services, leveraging advanced 4G and 5G technologies. The company was incorporated in Hong Kong on September 3, 1997, and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China Mobile (941 HK)

Asian Equities: Cyclical Patterns and Sector/Market Rotations Tell Us Where to Look Next

Asian market returns evince cyclical patterns driven by investor rotation. Near-term shifts likely from onshore CN, India, SG, Indonesia to HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Alpha Portfolio (June 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has significantly outperformed the Hong Kong indexes in June and since inception. Outperformance range is 17% to 23%...

David Mudd

Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors

In May, CN onshore investors moved from tech giants to high dividend yield stocks - CN Mobile, CNOOC & CCB. They saw buying opportunities in the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (May 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark in May by 3%, however it has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 3 to 19% since its launch...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: Cyclical Patterns and Sector/Market Rotations Tell Us Where to Look Next

​Asian market returns evince cyclical patterns driven by investor rotation. Near-term shifts likely from onshore CN, India, SG, Indonesia to HK,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HK Strategy: Time to Revisit the Yield Story

​High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Alpha Portfolio (June 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio has significantly outperformed the Hong Kong indexes in June and since inception. Outperformance range is 17% to 23%...

David Mudd

Asian Equities: Southbound Flows Turning to Dividends and Beaten Down Sectors

In May, ​CN onshore investors moved from tech giants to high dividend yield stocks - CN Mobile, CNOOC & CCB. They saw buying opportunities in the...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO (May 2025)

The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio underperformed its benchmark in May by 3%, however it has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 3 to 19% since its launch...

David Mudd

Asian market returns evince cyclical patterns driven by investor rotation. Near-term shifts likely from onshore CN, India, SG, Indonesia to HK,...

High-yield stocks like CNOOC, Hang Lung Prop and Henderson can protect income stream despite lower interest rates favouring the tech sector. ICBC...

In May, CN onshore investors moved from tech giants to high dividend yield stocks - CN Mobile, CNOOC & CCB. They saw buying opportunities in the...