Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<h2>Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running</h2>
<ul>
<li>
OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.</li>
<li>
At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.</li>
<li>Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.</li>
<li>
Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.</li>
</ul>

Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running


OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.

At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.
Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.

Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.


Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Our screen looks for high valuation multiples presented by companies with significant earnings growth forecasts, as well as financial indicators that suggest balance sheet stress. 34 stocks appear in our Q2 2021 screen, versus 25 in Q1 2021 and 15 in Q4 2020. Our Q2 2021 screen shows a reduction in average stock rank to 65.18 from 70.8 points compared to the Q1 2020 screen, placing the stocks lower into the second quartile of the market and showing a deterioration in fundamental and technical aspects. Whilst this is a 7.6% decline, we see this data as tainted by trailing fundamentals. As we highlighted in previous commentaries, we expect the market to see a defined separation of Quality, Value and Relative Momentum over the next few quarters. The erosion is not unexpected as we see a wave of updated forecasts.

Our screen looks for high valuation multiples presented by companies with significant earnings growth forecasts, as well as financial indicators that suggest balance sheet stress. 34 stocks appear in our Q2 2021 screen, versus 25 in Q1 2021 and 15 in Q4 2020. Our Q2 2021 screen shows a reduction in average stock rank to 65.18 from 70.8 points compared to the Q1 2020 screen, placing the stocks lower into the second quartile of the market and showing a deterioration in fundamental and technical aspects. Whilst this is a 7.6% decline, we see this data as tainted by trailing fundamentals. As we highlighted in previous commentaries, we expect the market to see a defined separation of Quality, Value and Relative Momentum over the next few quarters. The erosion is not unexpected as we see a wave of updated forecasts.

Screening the Silk Road: Q2 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on INDUSTRIAL BANK, YANTAI JEREH OILFIELD SERVICES, XIAMEN TUNGSTEN, KUNLUN TECH, CHONGQING ZHIFEI BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, GIANT NETWORK, CHINA SHENHUA ENERGY, Xinjiang Daqo.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of CSI 300 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on INDUSTRIAL BANK, YANTAI JEREH OILFIELD SERVICES, XIAMEN TUNGSTEN, KUNLUN TECH, CHONGQING ZHIFEI BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, GIANT NETWORK, CHINA SHENHUA ENERGY, Xinjiang Daqo.


CSI 300 Index Earning Revision (Jun): INDUSTRIAL BANK, YANTAI JEREH OILFIELD SERVICES, KUNLUN TECH

The overall expectation at the start of H1 2019, was that following a decade of seeing growth as the key focus (as ultra-accommodative global monetary policies provided cheap capital), the world would see a return to value. However, as we sit amid H1 2020 and Covid-19 expectation has not materialised.As part of the Covid-19 response, Interest rates are decreasing en-masse without a clear time frame on their reversal, investors in value orientated stocks are now being forced to adjust further to the new fiscal environment. However, as the Asia Pacific value / growth ratio nears a minus 2 standard deviation to the longer-term average, the probability of a reversal increases.We select 16 key names primed to continue our out performing screen, which delivered on average a 120bps of out performance since October 2019 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/screening-the-silk-road-small-mid-cap-free-cash-flow" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28877" rel="noopener">Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow</a> .

The overall expectation at the start of H1 2019, was that following a decade of seeing growth as the key focus (as ultra-accommodative global monetary policies provided cheap capital), the world would see a return to value. However, as we sit amid H1 2020 and Covid-19 expectation has not materialised.As part of the Covid-19 response, Interest rates are decreasing en-masse without a clear time frame on their reversal, investors in value orientated stocks are now being forced to adjust further to the new fiscal environment. However, as the Asia Pacific value / growth ratio nears a minus 2 standard deviation to the longer-term average, the probability of a reversal increases.We select 16 key names primed to continue our out performing screen, which delivered on average a 120bps of out performance since October 2019 Screening the Silk Road: (Small-)Mid Cap Free Cash Flow . 

Screening the Silk Road: (Small) Mid Cap Free Cash Flow

Index Rebalance

China Tungsten And Hightech Ma / Index Rebalance

China Tungsten And Hightech Ma (000657 CH)

<ul>
<li>CSI confirmed 19 ADDs and 19 DELETEs for the June 2026 rebalance, effective 15 Jun 2026.</li>
<li>ADD gains narrowed to seven positive-bridge names, led by Xiamen Tungsten and China Tungsten. DELETEs fell -4.4% on average.</li>
<li>Historical first-week outcomes were negative on average for both ADD and DELETE, but different subgroup recorded varied performance.</li>
</ul>


CSI confirmed 19 ADDs and 19 DELETEs for the June 2026 rebalance, effective 15 Jun 2026.
ADD gains narrowed to seven positive-bridge names, led by Xiamen Tungsten and China Tungsten. DELETEs fell -4.4% on average.
Historical first-week outcomes were negative on average for both ADD and DELETE, but different subgroup recorded varied performance.


CSI 300 June 2026 Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

China

China Oilfield Services is a leading integrated oilfield services provider, offering geophysical, drilling, well, and marine and transportation services. These services cover the exploration, development, and production phases of the oil and gas industry, including seismic data acquisition, drilling rig operations, and well completion. The company is headquartered in Sanhe, Hebei Province, China, and was founded in 2001.

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China Oilfield Services (2883 HK)

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Screening the Silk Road Q3 2021: Asia Pac High-risk names to avoid screening is out now. Eight new names, despite being down 23%, SoftBank remains...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q2 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

34 stocks in our Q2'21 HIGH-RISK screen, vs Q1 2021 's 25. Q2'21 shows a reduction in avg stock rank to 65.2 from 70.8 pts in Q1 2020....

David Lepper

CSI 300 Index Earning Revision (Jun): INDUSTRIAL BANK, YANTAI JEREH OILFIELD SERVICES, KUNLUN TECH

We analyzed CSI 300's consensus for Jun 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in INDUSTRIAL BANK (601166 CH), YANTAI JEREH OILFIELD SERVICES (002353...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Screening the Silk Road: (Small) Mid Cap Free Cash Flow

The overall expectation at the start of H1 2019, was that following a decade of seeing growth as the key focus (as ultra-accommodative global...

David Lepper

CSI 300 June 2026 Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

CSI 300 enters implementation on 15 Jun 2026. We update post-announcement stock performance and discuss implementation trades.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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