Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

China Overseas Land & Investment / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>A large triple bottom in 2021/2022 has confirmed a likely multi-year base and evolving multi-year uptrend. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction within the evolving uptrend.</li>
<li>A bullish weekly reversal pattern last week has confirmed that the 2023 correction is likely complete. Initial target at 23.20 (+11%), the break above which will target 27.35 (+30%).</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
A large triple bottom in 2021/2022 has confirmed a likely multi-year base and evolving multi-year uptrend. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction within the evolving uptrend.
A bullish weekly reversal pattern last week has confirmed that the 2023 correction is likely complete. Initial target at 23.20 (+11%), the break above which will target 27.35 (+30%).


China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) - Large Base in 2021/2022 - Material Upside in 2023

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>PBoC just announced a RRR cut of 25bps, which is a surprise to market</li>
<li>The cut will lower average RRR from 7.8% to 7.6%, and is expected to release c. 500bn of liquidity. China’s low inflation allows more room for further RRR cuts</li>
<li>Government’s press release addresses key market concerns.  We need to monitor recovery in property market.  LONG China on easing cycle.  China property names are trading at distressed valuation</li>
</ul>


PBoC just announced a RRR cut of 25bps, which is a surprise to market
The cut will lower average RRR from 7.8% to 7.6%, and is expected to release c. 500bn of liquidity. China’s low inflation allows more room for further RRR cuts
Government’s press release addresses key market concerns.  We need to monitor recovery in property market.  LONG China on easing cycle.  China property names are trading at distressed valuation


Short Note: LONG China on Monetary Easing Cycle

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast.</li><li>However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign funds’expectation, thus driving today’s sector rally.</li><li>Looking at March, we expect even stronger March data (positive sales YoY) as 1) MTD sales of 30 major cities already recorded 24% growth YoY. 2) Our sales leading indicator GAIN was one of the highest in Feb, indicating very promising March. 3) Recent channel check in major cities suggests sales momentum to continue on stabilized property price and historically low mortgage rate. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast.However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign funds’expectation, thus driving today’s sector rally.Looking at March, we expect even stronger March data (positive sales YoY) as 1) MTD sales of 30 major cities already recorded 24% growth YoY. 2) Our sales leading indicator GAIN was one of the highest in Feb, indicating very promising March. 3) Recent channel check in major cities suggests sales momentum to continue on stabilized property price and historically low mortgage rate. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – NBS 2M23 data: Strong as expected

<ul><li>We saw another week of strong property data where new home/secondary home sales went up 23%/12% WoW.</li><li>This is in line with our sales leading index GAIN and our upgrade report that sales is more sustainable than what market thinks.</li><li>The solid housing recovery has also accelerated housing construction activities that its construction resumption rate recovered to 84.1%, higher than 2022 already, and only slightly lagging behind the infrastructure (87.3%) and government projects (88.2%). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We saw another week of strong property data where new home/secondary home sales went up 23%/12% WoW.This is in line with our sales leading index GAIN and our upgrade report that sales is more sustainable than what market thinks.The solid housing recovery has also accelerated housing construction activities that its construction resumption rate recovered to 84.1%, higher than 2022 already, and only slightly lagging behind the infrastructure (87.3%) and government projects (88.2%). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly: Sales momentum accelerated on lower tier cities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>News reports indicate that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)</a> is looking to place 300m shares at a price range of HK$12.93-13.20/share to raise around US$500m.</li>
<li>The 300m shares is nearly 33 days of ADV, but around 11-12% of the new shares will be bought by passive trackers early next week and provide near-term support.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)</a> trades cheaper than its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and forward PE. Shorts have ticked higher in the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


News reports indicate that China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) is looking to place 300m shares at a price range of HK$12.93-13.20/share to raise around US$500m.
The 300m shares is nearly 33 days of ADV, but around 11-12% of the new shares will be bought by passive trackers early next week and provide near-term support.

China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) trades cheaper than its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and forward PE. Shorts have ticked higher in the last couple of weeks.


China Vanke (2202 HK): Placement & Index Flows

Hong Kong

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

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China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) - Large Base in 2021/2022 - Material Upside in 2023

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Short Note: LONG China on Monetary Easing Cycle

China just announced a 25bps RRR cut, which is a surprise. China's low inflation allows more room to RRR cuts. Jan-Feb macro data shows...

Jacob Cheng

China Property Sector – NBS 2M23 data: Strong as expected

NBS 2M23 sales value came flattish YoY, in line with our forecast. However, it beat China funds ’ expectation and strongly beat foreign...

CMB International

China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly: Sales momentum accelerated on lower tier cities

This is in line with our sales leading index GAIN and our upgrade report that sales is more sustainable than what market thinks.

CMB International

China Vanke (2202 HK): Placement & Index Flows

China Vanke is looking to sell 300m shares in a placement to raise US$500m. Passive index trackers will buy between 11-12% of the new shares early...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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