Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Some developers have been informed by banks that M&amp;A loans will not be counted in the "three red lines" if these loans are used for takeovers of insolvent companies' projects</li>
<li>Stronger state and private developers will be given funding support for project-level M&amp;A</li>
<li>The impact of credit policy plus local level policy shifts will be continued</li>
</ul>


Some developers have been informed by banks that M&amp;A loans will not be counted in the "three red lines" if these loans are used for takeovers of insolvent companies' projects
Stronger state and private developers will be given funding support for project-level M&amp;A
The impact of credit policy plus local level policy shifts will be continued


Developers Informed by Banks that M&A Loans Are Excluded from Three Red Lines

<ul>
<li>Wang Menghui, Minister of MOHURD, gave an interview with Xinhua News .</li>
<li>As ministry did not release the report of their post-CEWC meeting, his words in the interview help set the tone for their work plans for next year.</li>
<li>He reiterated that "houses are for living in, not speculation" and "refrain from using real estate as a short-term means for stimulating the economy".</li>
</ul>


Wang Menghui, Minister of MOHURD, gave an interview with Xinhua News .
As ministry did not release the report of their post-CEWC meeting, his words in the interview help set the tone for their work plans for next year.
He reiterated that "houses are for living in, not speculation" and "refrain from using real estate as a short-term means for stimulating the economy".


China Housing Ministry Flags Key Tasks for Next Year

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our "Buy the Worst" strategy outperformed HSI by a massive 26.1pp YTD. Over the last five years and seven, this strategy returned 39.7% and 25.8% respectively, beating the market significantly. </li>
<li>For 2022, the strategy will switch into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a>, based on YTD performance.</li>
<li>While these names are facing sustained headwinds, track record of our strategy suggested that they are more likely to outperform in 2022 than underperform. We think there is turnaround potential.</li>
</ul>


Our "Buy the Worst" strategy outperformed HSI by a massive 26.1pp YTD. Over the last five years and seven, this strategy returned 39.7% and 25.8% respectively, beating the market significantly. 
For 2022, the strategy will switch into Haidilao (6862 HK), Alibaba Health (241 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Sands China (1928 HK) and Xiaomi (1810 HK), based on YTD performance.
While these names are facing sustained headwinds, track record of our strategy suggested that they are more likely to outperform in 2022 than underperform. We think there is turnaround potential.


“Buy the Worst” Strategy into Year 3: What's on for 2022 to Beat the HSI?

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<ul>
<li>We warned our readers on rising leverage in China back in April, based on cheap funding costs rather than borrower’s repayment capability. We pointed out that the music had stopped.   </li>
<li>We summarize on what has happened in the Chinese high-yield world and what is next. We believe the worst is behind us but we do have a bumpy road ahead. </li>
<li>Investors who can understand the restructuring process in China and withstand volatility of the bonds rated B or below could generate Alpha in the long run. </li>
</ul>


We warned our readers on rising leverage in China back in April, based on cheap funding costs rather than borrower’s repayment capability. We pointed out that the music had stopped.   
We summarize on what has happened in the Chinese high-yield world and what is next. We believe the worst is behind us but we do have a bumpy road ahead. 
Investors who can understand the restructuring process in China and withstand volatility of the bonds rated B or below could generate Alpha in the long run. 


The Chinese Credit Chronicle: The Below CCC Moment

<p>The China Real Estate Association (CREA) reportedly summoned 10 key developers to a discussion meeting last Friday, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26076:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (000002 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-overseas-land-investment-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:419:1" rel="noopener">China Overseas Land &amp; Investment (688 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gemdale-corp-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14908:1" rel="noopener">Gemdale Corp A (600383 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongliang-holdings-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28009:1" rel="noopener">Zhongliang Holdings (2772 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seazen-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24242:1" rel="noopener">Seazen Holdings Co., Ltd. (601155 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greentown-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8954:1" rel="noopener">Greentown China (3900 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cifi-holdings-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18387:1" rel="noopener">CIFI Holdings (884 HK)</a> , who were required to send senior executives at vice president or above levels.</p>

The China Real Estate Association (CREA) reportedly summoned 10 key developers to a discussion meeting last Friday, including China Vanke (000002 CH) , Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK) , China Overseas Land &amp; Investment (688 HK) , Gemdale Corp A (600383 CH) , Longfor Properties (960 HK)Zhongliang Holdings (2772 HK) , Seazen Holdings Co., Ltd. (601155 CH) , Greentown China (3900 HK) , and CIFI Holdings (884 HK) , who were required to send senior executives at vice president or above levels.

China Real Estate Association Summoned Key Developers as PBOC Hints Policy Finetuning

Hong Kong

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Developers Informed by Banks that M&A Loans Are Excluded from Three Red Lines

We maintain our view that state-backed developers would take the advantage to obtain quality assets and gain market share, of which our recommends

Li Tang

China Housing Ministry Flags Key Tasks for Next Year

We believe prefab and green construction will be supported China's push for affordable rental housing during the 14th Five-Year period

Li Tang

“Buy the Worst” Strategy into Year 3: What's on for 2022 to Beat the HSI?

Our "Buy the Worst" strategy outperformed HSI by a massive 26.1pp YTD. For 2022, new names are Haidilao, Ali Health, Alibaba, Sands China and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The Chinese Credit Chronicle: The Below CCC Moment

We summarize on what has happened in the Chinese high-yield world and what is next. We believe the worst is behind us but we do have a bumpy road...

Bondcritic

China Real Estate Association Summoned Key Developers as PBOC Hints Policy Finetuning

We see a short-term opportunity to buy high-quality, low leveraged developers in advance of further calibrated policy support.

Li Tang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)