Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

China Overseas Land & Investment / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>COLI, being a SOE residential developer, has no bankruptcy risk.  Under the current downturn, it is gaining market share and evolving into a stronger market leader</li>
<li>It recently issued onshore bond at historical low coupon 1.80% (5-year) and 2.37% (10-year), which is even lower than China’s LPR.  This is very significant </li>
<li>Valuation is almost all time low, and downside is limited.  We think it is the perfect beta play for China</li>
</ul>


COLI, being a SOE residential developer, has no bankruptcy risk.  Under the current downturn, it is gaining market share and evolving into a stronger market leader
It recently issued onshore bond at historical low coupon 1.80% (5-year) and 2.37% (10-year), which is even lower than China’s LPR.  This is very significant 
Valuation is almost all time low, and downside is limited.  We think it is the perfect beta play for China


COLI (688 HK): The Best Beta Play for China

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this note, we look at the latest May/June data, policy, and sentiment in China housing markets, with some reflections on where things are vs the expectations end of 2024. </li>
<li>"Less negative" summarises the data, while "Stabilise it" captures the policy approach.</li>
<li>New home sales are in line with our forecast, and in the upper range of group forecasts from China Property Outlook, but there are some new data caveats.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we look at the latest May/June data, policy, and sentiment in China housing markets, with some reflections on where things are vs the expectations end of 2024. 
"Less negative" summarises the data, while "Stabilise it" captures the policy approach.
New home sales are in line with our forecast, and in the upper range of group forecasts from China Property Outlook, but there are some new data caveats.


Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

Agricultural Bank Of China / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next


Curator's Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China's Property Pulse

<ul>
<li>We are turning bullish on the sector.  We think there are several structural drivers that will improve the sector as a whole, both on demand and supply side</li>
<li>Continued low onshore rates will boost the property market as well as reduce funding cost for developers.  The decline in new start will also help support home prices</li>
<li>Valuation is still almost historical low, we think the downside is relatively limited</li>
</ul>


We are turning bullish on the sector.  We think there are several structural drivers that will improve the sector as a whole, both on demand and supply side
Continued low onshore rates will boost the property market as well as reduce funding cost for developers.  The decline in new start will also help support home prices
Valuation is still almost historical low, we think the downside is relatively limited


China Prop Short Note: Turning Bullish on “lower Rates for Longer” & Improving Sector Fundamentals

<ul>
<li>Premier Li delivered the Government Work Report and announced key economic targets. We think there is no surprise to the market</li>
<li>Regarding property front, government re-iterated its intention and willingness to contain property developer debt default risks, as seen by China Vanke case</li>
<li>Valuation is undemanding.  But we continue to be bearish, and we monitor the leading indicators such as land sales and new starts</li>
</ul>


Premier Li delivered the Government Work Report and announced key economic targets. We think there is no surprise to the market
Regarding property front, government re-iterated its intention and willingness to contain property developer debt default risks, as seen by China Vanke case
Valuation is undemanding.  But we continue to be bearish, and we monitor the leading indicators such as land sales and new starts


Takeaway from Two Sessions and Latest Update Re China Property – Monitor Leading Indicators

Hong Kong

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

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China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

COLI (688 HK): The Best Beta Play for China

Based on 1) SOE with no bankruptcy risk, 2) bond issuance at historical low coupon (1.80% for 5yr) and (2.37% for 10yr), and 3) historical low...

Jacob Cheng

China Housing - A Mid-Year Check

In this note, we look at the latest May/June data, policy, and sentiment in China housing markets, with some reflections on where things are vs the...

Robert Ciemniak

Curator's Cut: Arbs Go A-H, Copper Plays & China's Property Pulse

In this cut, we explore A-H share trading dynamics, consider copper market dynamics and plays, and China's bottoming/stabilizing real estate market.

Pranav Rao

China Prop Short Note: Turning Bullish on “lower Rates for Longer” & Improving Sector Fundamentals

We turn bullish on China property, on the back of several structural tailwinds: rates lower for longer to improve mortgage rate and funding cost,...

Jacob Cheng

Takeaway from Two Sessions and Latest Update Re China Property – Monitor Leading Indicators

We provided an update after China's Two Sessions and government policy on China property. There are increasing signs of government's support, but...

Jacob Cheng

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)