Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>Volume picked up on Tuesday, 29th November, just slightly below the 15th November volume, the previous buying climax.</li><li>Wednesday's Volume fell 10% with new price highs.</li><li>The erratic rather than trending Volume without capitulation volume on the 31st October price lows are hallmarks of a bear market rally.</li></ul>

Volume picked up on Tuesday, 29th November, just slightly below the 15th November volume, the previous buying climax.Wednesday's Volume fell 10% with new price highs.The erratic rather than trending Volume without capitulation volume on the 31st October price lows are hallmarks of a bear market rally.

Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We think the third arrow from CSRC is positive to the sector as 1) the signal is stronger than the previous 16 measures by PBOC because the equity financing channel has been long freeze for A-share property names.</li><li>So that means the attitude towards property sector is a U-turn to help developers in need.</li><li>2) It opens up the imagination that troubled developers may issue equity to SOEs or local government for mixed ownership. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We think the third arrow from CSRC is positive to the sector as 1) the signal is stronger than the previous 16 measures by PBOC because the equity financing channel has been long freeze for A-share property names.So that means the attitude towards property sector is a U-turn to help developers in need.2) It opens up the imagination that troubled developers may issue equity to SOEs or local government for mixed ownership. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – Equity financing reopens to fuel another rally

<ul><li>Property names are likely to trade high at market open today again on MOHURD’s relaxation of pre-sales escrow account supervision.</li><li>However, we suggest investors to make use of it to take profits on POE names as 1) the recent POE rally (&gt;100% in 3 days) has largely priced in the policy support.</li><li>If we recalled Oct 2021 and Mar 2022 when Vice Premier Liu /PBOC/CBIRC/MOHURD also came out with strong support, the actual implementation was not so straightforward which led to sector de-rating again.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property names are likely to trade high at market open today again on MOHURD’s relaxation of pre-sales escrow account supervision.However, we suggest investors to make use of it to take profits on POE names as 1) the recent POE rally (&gt;100% in 3 days) has largely priced in the policy support.If we recalled Oct 2021 and Mar 2022 when Vice Premier Liu /PBOC/CBIRC/MOHURD also came out with strong support, the actual implementation was not so straightforward which led to sector de-rating again.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – One day one policy: profit taking may start on POE names

<ul>
<li>We think CIFI event became the triggering point for PBOC and MOF to urgently roll out stimulus measures (cut mortgage rates and refund individual income tax for qualified home buyers).</li>
<li>Together with better-than-expected Sep sales, we expect a sector rebound in the near term led by short cover.</li>
<li>However, the three driving forces (policy, sales and financing) still indicate a bumpy recovery mainly because 1) policy support is only 60% of that in 2015. 2) Oct sales may weaken again as forecasted by our leading indicator and 3) 4Q property loans may still decline by 25% YoY and most of them may go to SOEs rather than POEs.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


We think CIFI event became the triggering point for PBOC and MOF to urgently roll out stimulus measures (cut mortgage rates and refund individual income tax for qualified home buyers).
Together with better-than-expected Sep sales, we expect a sector rebound in the near term led by short cover.
However, the three driving forces (policy, sales and financing) still indicate a bumpy recovery mainly because 1) policy support is only 60% of that in 2015. 2) Oct sales may weaken again as forecasted by our leading indicator and 3) 4Q property loans may still decline by 25% YoY and most of them may go to SOEs rather than POEs.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – “Skrik” of “Hanzawa Naoki”

Equity Bottom-Up

China Overseas Land & Investment / Equity Bottom-Up

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

<ul><li>We estimate COLI to deliver 20% YoY decline in 2022E core profit, close to buyside expectation.</li><li>Moreover, the earnings slide may continue into 2023E (-7% YoY) due to sales decline in 2022 (-15% YoY).</li><li>This has made COLI’s valuation not cheap enough to investors at 6.7/7.3x 2022/23E despite the recent pull back. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate COLI to deliver 20% YoY decline in 2022E core profit, close to buyside expectation.Moreover, the earnings slide may continue into 2023E (-7% YoY) due to sales decline in 2022 (-15% YoY).This has made COLI’s valuation not cheap enough to investors at 6.7/7.3x 2022/23E despite the recent pull back. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

COLI (688 HK) – FY22E preview: page not yet turned

Hong Kong

China Overseas Land & Investment is a Hong Kong-based real estate conglomerate primarily engaged in property development and sales, property investment, and property management services. The company develops residential and commercial properties, including office buildings, shopping malls, and hotels. It was founded in Hong Kong in 1979.

Price Gauge
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China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas

Volume picked up on Tuesday, 29th November, just slightly below the 15th November volume, the previous buying climax. Wednesday's Volume fell 10%...

Untying The Gordian Knot

China Property Sector – Equity financing reopens to fuel another rally

After market closed, CSRC’s Chairman Yi Huiman announced that in order to maintain stable and heathy development of real estate market

CMB International

China Property Sector – One day one policy: profit taking may start on POE names

Property names are likely to trade high at market open today again on MOHURD’s relaxation of pre-sales escrow account supervision. However, we...

CMB International

China Property Sector – “Skrik” of “Hanzawa Naoki”

We think CIFI event became the triggering point for PBOC and MOF to urgently roll out stimulus measures (cut mortgage rates and refund individual...

CMB International

COLI (688 HK) – FY22E preview: page not yet turned

We estimate COLI to deliver 20% YoY decline in 2022E core profit, close to buyside expectation. Moreover, the earnings slide may continue into...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)