Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 19th): Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

China Pacific Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CPIC achieved positive VNB growth for three consecutive quarters with 16.6% YoY growth reported in 1Q23, outperforming major peers (i.e. Ping An/China Life +8.8%/+7.7% YoY).</li><li>The strong VNB momentum in 1Q23 was primarily driven by margin expansion resulted from favourable changes in product and duration mix, thanks to improved agent productivity and capability on back of the Group’s ongoing agency reform.</li><li>The headcount of highly productive agency force that contributed above 90% of the insurer’s VNB modestly rebounded QoQ in 1Q23, whereas major peers are still weighing on a downward trend in agent scale (vs Ping An/China Life -9.2%/-0.9% QoQ). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

CPIC achieved positive VNB growth for three consecutive quarters with 16.6% YoY growth reported in 1Q23, outperforming major peers (i.e. Ping An/China Life +8.8%/+7.7% YoY).The strong VNB momentum in 1Q23 was primarily driven by margin expansion resulted from favourable changes in product and duration mix, thanks to improved agent productivity and capability on back of the Group’s ongoing agency reform.The headcount of highly productive agency force that contributed above 90% of the insurer’s VNB modestly rebounded QoQ in 1Q23, whereas major peers are still weighing on a downward trend in agent scale (vs Ping An/China Life -9.2%/-0.9% QoQ). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CPIC (2601 HK) – Margin Expansion Driven by Improving Agency Quality

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Inflows into industrials, energy, and utilities were offset by outflows from financials, and information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for COSCO Shipping, Shenzhen Inovance, Zhejiang Jingsheng, Ningbo Tuopu, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, Moutai, East Money, CMB, Midea.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Inflows into industrials, energy, and utilities were offset by outflows from financials, and information technology.
We highlight flows for COSCO Shipping, Shenzhen Inovance, Zhejiang Jingsheng, Ningbo Tuopu, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, Moutai, East Money, CMB, Midea.


Northbound Flows Monthly (April): Inflows into Industrials Offset by Outflows from Financials

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 28th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$844.5 million, led by financials, consumer staples, and offset by industrials, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, East Money Information, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Gree Electric Appliances, China Merchants Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 28th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$844.5 million, led by financials, consumer staples, and offset by industrials, information technology.
We highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, East Money Information, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Gree Electric Appliances, China Merchants Bank.


Northbound Flows (Apr 28th): Kweichow Moutai, East Money, CATL, Gree Electric Appliances, CMB

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Beijing Kingsoft Office Softwa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With 2 trading days left in the review period, we see 7 potential adds/5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 5.58% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and have underperformed over the last week.</li>
</ul>


With 2 trading days left in the review period, we see 7 potential adds/5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.
We estimate one-way turnover of 5.58% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and have underperformed over the last week.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes Coming Up in June

China

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Company, Ltd. is an integrated insurance services provider. The Company offers life and property insurance products through its subsidiaries.

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China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 19th): Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Li Auto.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CPIC (2601 HK) – Margin Expansion Driven by Improving Agency Quality

CPIC achieved positive VNB growth for three consecutive quarters with 16.6% YoY growth reported in 1Q23, outperforming major peers (i.e. Ping An...

CMB International

Northbound Flows Monthly (April): Inflows into Industrials Offset by Outflows from Financials

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for April and highlight flows for COSCO Shipping, Inovance, Jingsheng, Tuopu, Wuliangye, Ping An...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Apr 28th): Kweichow Moutai, East Money, CATL, Gree Electric Appliances, CMB

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, East Money Information, CATL, Gree...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes Coming Up in June

There will be 5 changes in June. Estimated 1-way turnover is 5.58% leading to a 1-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. The adds have outperformed the deletes...

Brian Freitas

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