HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CSRC's Market Value Management Guidelines will indirectly benefit the H-share stocks with their A-share counterparts with a P/B of below 1x.  </li>
<li>Chinese banks dominated the list with below-book A-shares. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16221:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright Bank (6818 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-citic-bank-corp-ltd-ea6c25fd-4b20-45cb-a4a6-df7a60136f03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:653:1" rel="noopener">China Citic Bank H (998 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> are the prime beneficiaries.</li>
<li>Infrastructure construction companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-construction-corp-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:263:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Cons Corp (1186 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-group-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:264:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Group H (390 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Comm Cons (1800 HK)</a> are also well-positioned to gain.</li>
</ul>


CSRC's Market Value Management Guidelines will indirectly benefit the H-share stocks with their A-share counterparts with a P/B of below 1x.  
Chinese banks dominated the list with below-book A-shares. China Everbright Bank (6818 HK), China Citic Bank H (998 HK), and ICBC (H) (1398 HK) are the prime beneficiaries.
Infrastructure construction companies China Railway Cons Corp (1186 HK), China Railway Group H (390 HK), and China Comm Cons (1800 HK) are also well-positioned to gain.


China & HK Strategy: Names to Watch for Market Value Management

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We screen our HSCI September 2026 review candidates for southbound Connect action, with 36 Connect ADDs and 25 DELETEs.</li>
<li>ADD candidates split into 31 ADD-NEW and 5 ADD-REJOIN, with one WVR name deferred and seven A+H names already in Connect.</li>
<li>DELETE candidates are 23 MV cases and 2 velocity cases, after one A+H name is exempt from Connect deletion.</li>
</ul>


We screen our HSCI September 2026 review candidates for southbound Connect action, with 36 Connect ADDs and 25 DELETEs.
ADD candidates split into 31 ADD-NEW and 5 ADD-REJOIN, with one WVR name deferred and seven A+H names already in Connect.
DELETE candidates are 23 MV cases and 2 velocity cases, after one A+H name is exempt from Connect deletion.


HSCI / HK Connect Sep 2026 Inclusion Forecast and Positioning

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 81.4% as of Jul 31st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.9ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, materials, energy and offset by communication services, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hua Hong Semi, CMB, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Eastroc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 195 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 81.4% as of Jul 31st.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.9ppt week-on-week, led by real estate, materials, energy and offset by communication services, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hua Hong Semi, CMB, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Eastroc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 31st): Hua Hong Semi, CMB, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Eastroc

<ul>
<li>We screen HK stocks ahead of the HSCI September 2026 half-yearly review, with 44 ADD candidates and 26 DELETE candidates.</li>
<li>ADD candidates are mostly new listings and prior constituents, including seven A+H names already in Connect.</li>
<li>DELETE candidates include 21 MV DELETEs, three retention-line borderline names, and two velocity cases.</li>
</ul>


We screen HK stocks ahead of the HSCI September 2026 half-yearly review, with 44 ADD candidates and 26 DELETE candidates.
ADD candidates are mostly new listings and prior constituents, including seven A+H names already in Connect.
DELETE candidates include 21 MV DELETEs, three retention-line borderline names, and two velocity cases.


HSCI / HK Connect Sep 2026 Rebalance Forecast

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Victory Giant Technology (HuiZhou) / Index Rebalance

Victory Giant Technology (HuiZhou) (2476 HK)

<ul>
<li>There could be 55 potential inclusions and 14 potential deletions for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. There are more stocks that are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


There could be 55 potential inclusions and 14 potential deletions for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. There are more stocks that are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2026): Adds Outnumber Deletes as IPOs Dominate

China

China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited manufactures rail transit related systems. The Company researches, develops, designs, manufactures, sells and installs rail transit communication and signal systems. China Railway Signal & Communication also provides consulting, design and supervision work for urban transit projects and mainline railway projects.

China Railway Signal & Communi (688009 CH)

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China Railway Signal & Communi (688009 CH)

China & HK Strategy: Names to Watch for Market Value Management

SASAC issued "Several opinions on improving and strengthening the market value management of listed companies controlled by central enterprises"...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSCI / HK Connect Sep 2026 Inclusion Forecast and Positioning

We expect 36 southbound Connect ADDs, 31 new and 5 returning, and 25 DELETEs from the current Connect list at the HSCI September review, effective...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 31st): Hua Hong Semi, CMB, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Eastroc

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Hua Hong Semi, CMB, Shandong Gold Mining Co Lt-H, Eastroc.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI / HK Connect Sep 2026 Rebalance Forecast

We forecast 44 ADD candidates and 26 DELETE candidates for the HSCI September review, with the announcement expected on 21 Aug 2026.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2026): Adds Outnumber Deletes as IPOs Dominate

There could be 80 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 70 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)