Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This note analyses price behaviour around fifteen regular HSCEI rebalance events (March 2022 to March 2026), covering 23 ADD and 23 DELETE stock-events.</li>
<li>We examine 42 historical additions and deletions for systematic positioning effects in the announcement-to-implementation (WAI) window and whether the resulting premium creates predictable post-implementation reversals.</li>
<li>We apply those patterns to the four stocks affected by the March 2026 rebalance (two ADDs, two DELETEs) to assess positioning dynamics and post-implementation setup.</li>
</ul>


This note analyses price behaviour around fifteen regular HSCEI rebalance events (March 2022 to March 2026), covering 23 ADD and 23 DELETE stock-events.
We examine 42 historical additions and deletions for systematic positioning effects in the announcement-to-implementation (WAI) window and whether the resulting premium creates predictable post-implementation reversals.
We apply those patterns to the four stocks affected by the March 2026 rebalance (two ADDs, two DELETEs) to assess positioning dynamics and post-implementation setup.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Historical Patterns & Mar '25 Event Analysis

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng Index changes for March 2026 were announced on 13 February. The final capping is based on prices from today's close.</li>
<li>Quiddity predictions had a pretty decent run across the 6 major indices we cover.</li>
<li>We see US$5.2bn of flows to buy and sell on Friday at the close. </li>
</ul>


Hang Seng Index changes for March 2026 were announced on 13 February. The final capping is based on prices from today's close.
Quiddity predictions had a pretty decent run across the 6 major indices we cover.
We see US$5.2bn of flows to buy and sell on Friday at the close. 


[Quiddity Index] Hang Seng Family Capping Set - US$5.2bn to Trade on Friday 6 March

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$38.8bn (US$4.96bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-molybdenum-co-ltd-d9c46a67-e31f-431f-9f5f-02222265d701" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8585:1" rel="noopener">China Molybdenum</a> are the largest net buys, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">SMIC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo</a> are the largest net sells.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$38.8bn (US$4.96bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, Alibaba, Horizon Robotics, NetEase and China Molybdenum are the largest net buys, while HSBC Holdings, BYD, SMIC, JD.com and Lenovo are the largest net sells.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 27th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Meituan, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Zijin Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 27th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Meituan, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Zijin Mining.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Feb 27th): Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Meituan, Hua Hong Semiconductor

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 13th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, China Life, CNOOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 13th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, China Life, CNOOC.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Feb 13th): Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, China Life, CNOOC

Hong Kong

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co. Ltd. manufactures, distributes, and sells alcoholic beverages, primarily beer, in Mainland China. Its product portfolio includes popular brands like Snow Beer, Heineken, Lao Xue, Amstel, and baijiu products under the Guizhou and Jinsha Huisha brands. The company is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong, and was founded in 1992.

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China Resources Beer (291 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Historical Patterns & Mar '25 Event Analysis

HSCEI March 2026 rebalance: positioning timing, reversal patterns, and flow-impact analysis across 14 completed events; medium-conviction signal...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Quiddity Index] Hang Seng Family Capping Set - US$5.2bn to Trade on Friday 6 March

We see US$5.2bn to trade on Friday for the 6 major indices in the Hang Seng rebalance cycle. There are, of course, hundreds of other smaller...

Travis Lundy

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$5bn of Flows Post Capping (Mar 2026)

The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Feb 27th): Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Meituan, Hua Hong Semiconductor

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, Meituan, Hua Hong...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Feb 13th): Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, China Life, CNOOC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, China Life, CNOOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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