IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> all-scrip merger is set at an exchange ratio of 0.62x. </li>
<li>The merger is conditional on the GJTA/Haitong shareholder vote, which is low risk. Regulatory approvals are a formality as they involve two entities with SOE backgrounds. </li>
<li>The share exchange ratio is attractive compared to historical price ratios and precedent transactions. The recent material re-rating of peers is irrelevant to the vote as the offer is all-scrip. </li>
</ul>



Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) all-scrip merger is set at an exchange ratio of 0.62x. 
The merger is conditional on the GJTA/Haitong shareholder vote, which is low risk. Regulatory approvals are a formality as they involve two entities with SOE backgrounds. 
The share exchange ratio is attractive compared to historical price ratios and precedent transactions. The recent material re-rating of peers is irrelevant to the vote as the offer is all-scrip. 


Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger Is a Done Deal

<ul>
<li>On 6 September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> entered a legally binding agreement to merge through absorption and share exchange. </li>
<li>The high-profile merger aligns with the Chinese government’s ambition to reform the brokerage sector and create world-class investment banks. The merger would result in the largest China broker by assets.</li>
<li>In this note, we evaluate the potential share exchange ratio and the risks to satisfying the conditions for implementing the potential merger.</li>
</ul>


On 6 September, Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) entered a legally binding agreement to merge through absorption and share exchange. 
The high-profile merger aligns with the Chinese government’s ambition to reform the brokerage sector and create world-class investment banks. The merger would result in the largest China broker by assets.
In this note, we evaluate the potential share exchange ratio and the risks to satisfying the conditions for implementing the potential merger.


Haitong Securities (6837 HK): Evaluating the Potential Merger with GTJA (2611 HK)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a>'s FY24 result is distorted by non-recurring items and provisions. Adjusted net profit, however, has declined by only 4.3%, and is only 2.6% below consensus. </li>
<li>FY25 guidance looks positive as a 6% increase in dollar margin and a 5% increase in gas volume are expected. The Apr-May operating figures support such projections.</li>
<li>China Gas maintained its DPS despite a drop in reported profit, showcasing its confidence. Assuming the same dividend in FY25 and FY26, it will sit on a yield of 7%. </li>
</ul>



China Gas Holdings (384 HK)'s FY24 result is distorted by non-recurring items and provisions. Adjusted net profit, however, has declined by only 4.3%, and is only 2.6% below consensus. 
FY25 guidance looks positive as a 6% increase in dollar margin and a 5% increase in gas volume are expected. The Apr-May operating figures support such projections.
China Gas maintained its DPS despite a drop in reported profit, showcasing its confidence. Assuming the same dividend in FY25 and FY26, it will sit on a yield of 7%. 


China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Still Warrants a Look

<ul>
<li>We think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> will see its operating momentum accelerate in 2H23, leading by better natural gas sales growth and sustained positive dollar margin performance.</li>
<li>It has strengthened its financial position in 1H23, with net cash amounting to 36% of market cap. This has demonstrated its cash-generating capability and controlled capex. </li>
<li>Its 7.0x and 6.6x PERs for FY23 and FY24 are inexpensive. Its annualised ROE of 10.6% is also attractive. There is room for the other businesses to recover in 2H23.</li>
</ul>


We think Kunlun Energy (135 HK) will see its operating momentum accelerate in 2H23, leading by better natural gas sales growth and sustained positive dollar margin performance.
It has strengthened its financial position in 1H23, with net cash amounting to 36% of market cap. This has demonstrated its cash-generating capability and controlled capex. 
Its 7.0x and 6.6x PERs for FY23 and FY24 are inexpensive. Its annualised ROE of 10.6% is also attractive. There is room for the other businesses to recover in 2H23.


Kunlun Energy (135 HK): The Story Is Still Going On

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We finally got to 80 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> constituents in June. Now comes the next step of moving up to 100 index constituents though there is no timeline for completion.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation on the inclusion of foreign stocks in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> should be announced soon though implementation could start only in December.</li>
<li>We highlight 10 potential inclusions to the index with passive trading impact varying from 1.5-5.6 days of ADV. There are large shorts on some of the stocks.</li>
</ul>


We finally got to 80 Hang Seng Index constituents in June. Now comes the next step of moving up to 100 index constituents though there is no timeline for completion.
The conclusions of the market consultation on the inclusion of foreign stocks in the Hang Seng Index should be announced soon though implementation could start only in December.
We highlight 10 potential inclusions to the index with passive trading impact varying from 1.5-5.6 days of ADV. There are large shorts on some of the stocks.


Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: 80 Member Target Achieved; What Next?

Hong Kong

China Resources Gas Group Ltd distributes natural gas and petroleum gas in the cities of Chengdu, Fuyang, Huaibei, Linhai, Suzhou and Wuxi in the PRC. The Company also operates compressed natural gas filling stations in Chengdu, Nanjing and Wuxi. The group also is involved in bottled liquefied petroleum gas distribution in cities of Fuyang, Suzhou and Wuxi.

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CR Gas (1193 HK)

Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger Is a Done Deal

The share exchange ratio is attractive. Regulatory approvals are a formality. The GJTA/Haitong shareholder vote is low risk. Timing is the key risk.

Arun George

Haitong Securities (6837 HK): Evaluating the Potential Merger with GTJA (2611 HK)

In this note, we evaluate the potential share exchange ratio and the risks to satisfying the conditions for implementing the potential merger.

Arun George

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Still Warrants a Look

Adjusted FY24 profit shows slight decline, but FY25 guidance looks positive with expected increases in dollar margin and gas volume. Assuming same...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): The Story Is Still Going On

Kunlun is expected to accelerate its operating momentum in 2H23, driven by increased natural gas sales and a positive dollar margin. Its strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: 80 Member Target Achieved; What Next?

There is just over a week to the announcement of the September changes for the HSI. A lot of the potential inclusions have outperformed the HSI...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Haitong Securities (6837 HK)/GTJA (2611 HK) Merger Is a Done Deal

The share exchange ratio is attractive. Regulatory approvals are a formality. The GJTA/Haitong shareholder vote is low risk. Timing is the key risk.

Arun George

Haitong Securities (6837 HK): Evaluating the Potential Merger with GTJA (2611 HK)

In this note, we evaluate the potential share exchange ratio and the risks to satisfying the conditions for implementing the potential merger.

Arun George

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Still Warrants a Look

​Adjusted FY24 profit shows slight decline, but FY25 guidance looks positive with expected increases in dollar margin and gas volume. Assuming same...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): The Story Is Still Going On

​Kunlun is expected to accelerate its operating momentum in 2H23, driven by increased natural gas sales and a positive dollar margin. Its strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index Rebalance Preview: 80 Member Target Achieved; What Next?

There is just over a week to the announcement of the September changes for the HSI. A lot of the potential inclusions have outperformed the HSI...

Brian Freitas

Adjusted FY24 profit shows slight decline, but FY25 guidance looks positive with expected increases in dollar margin and gas volume. Assuming same...

Kunlun is expected to accelerate its operating momentum in 2H23, driven by increased natural gas sales and a positive dollar margin. Its strong...