External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><ul><li>CRG’s latest updates under mgmt.’s guidance are as follow: 1) retail gas sales vol. growth maintained at 8.2% YoY in Jan-Aug 2022 and targets at 8-10%YoY for FY22; 2) FY22 dollar margin aims to achieve RMB0.5/cbm; 3) gas connection segment maintained resilient growth in 2H22; 4) the robust growth momentum of value-added services will continue.</li><li>CRG is now trading at 8.72x FY22 forward PE, closest to the 10-year lowest PE.</li><li>We resume coverage and revised down our TP to HK$39.13 (based on 13x 2022E PE), reflecting prudent gas sales and dollar margin outlook. </li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

CRG’s latest updates under mgmt.’s guidance are as follow: 1) retail gas sales vol. growth maintained at 8.2% YoY in Jan-Aug 2022 and targets at 8-10%YoY for FY22; 2) FY22 dollar margin aims to achieve RMB0.5/cbm; 3) gas connection segment maintained resilient growth in 2H22; 4) the robust growth momentum of value-added services will continue.CRG is now trading at 8.72x FY22 forward PE, closest to the 10-year lowest PE.We resume coverage and revised down our TP to HK$39.13 (based on 13x 2022E PE), reflecting prudent gas sales and dollar margin outlook. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CR Gas (1193 HK) – Eyes on 4Q Gas Dollar Margin and Solid Comprehensive Service Growth

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>With an 18.6% growth in 1H22 profit from continuing operations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> has not disappointed us. Natural gas sales segment is a bright spot with solid growth.</li>
<li>Net cash swelled to Rmb10.2bn at end-Jun, about 2x more than the level at end-FY21. We estimate this roughly equals to 19% of the current share price. </li>
<li>New project momentum looks healthy and the market seems to have underestimated FY22 earnings. Its 8x and 7.5x PERs for FY22 and FY23 are clearly attractive. </li>
</ul>


With an 18.6% growth in 1H22 profit from continuing operations, Kunlun Energy (135 HK) has not disappointed us. Natural gas sales segment is a bright spot with solid growth.
Net cash swelled to Rmb10.2bn at end-Jun, about 2x more than the level at end-FY21. We estimate this roughly equals to 19% of the current share price. 
New project momentum looks healthy and the market seems to have underestimated FY22 earnings. Its 8x and 7.5x PERs for FY22 and FY23 are clearly attractive. 


Kunlun Energy (135 HK): An Excellent Show

<ul>
<li>Core net profit rose a healthy 10.9% at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> in 1H22 despite challenges from pandemic lockdowns and surge in input costs.</li>
<li>We expect to see sequential improvement in both dollar margin for gas sales and overall gross margin in 2H22. Excellent integrated energy pipeline should add to earnings momentum.</li>
<li>Gearing improved 2.2pp in 1H22 and there is more room to deleverage in 2H22. While the stock's valuation is not particularly cheap, it has probably already hit the trough. </li>
</ul>


Core net profit rose a healthy 10.9% at ENN Energy (2688 HK) in 1H22 despite challenges from pandemic lockdowns and surge in input costs.
We expect to see sequential improvement in both dollar margin for gas sales and overall gross margin in 2H22. Excellent integrated energy pipeline should add to earnings momentum.
Gearing improved 2.2pp in 1H22 and there is more room to deleverage in 2H22. While the stock's valuation is not particularly cheap, it has probably already hit the trough. 


ENN Energy (2688 HK): Seeing Sign of an Upturn

<ul>
<li>We continued to be cautious on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-gas-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14315:1" rel="noopener">China Gas Holdings (384 HK)</a> given the challenges faced. It guided for a flat dollar margin in FY23 but we think this is optimistic.</li>
<li>Connection fees are likely to stay under pressure after a 42.1% decline in FY22. It only projects 2.6-2.9m new residential connections for FY23, compared with 2.9m in FY22.</li>
<li>Although China Gas is now the cheapest Hong Kong-listed China gas utilities company, it takes time to regain market confidence. At similar valuation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kunlun-energy-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10054:1" rel="noopener">Kunlun Energy (135 HK)</a> looks more interesting. </li>
</ul>


We continued to be cautious on China Gas Holdings (384 HK) given the challenges faced. It guided for a flat dollar margin in FY23 but we think this is optimistic.
Connection fees are likely to stay under pressure after a 42.1% decline in FY22. It only projects 2.6-2.9m new residential connections for FY23, compared with 2.9m in FY22.
Although China Gas is now the cheapest Hong Kong-listed China gas utilities company, it takes time to regain market confidence. At similar valuation, Kunlun Energy (135 HK) looks more interesting. 


China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Not Giving It the Benefit of Doubt

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Utilities ownership among Asia Ex-Japan funds has fallen to its lowest levels on record. Average fund weights stand at an all-time low of 0.98%, with just 41.3% of funds invested</li>
<li>Record underweights driven by benchmark increases in stocks that active managers have ignored (Adani Green Energy, Adani Transmission and Adani Gas).</li>
<li>Investor flight driven by Growth investors, with Aggressive Growth strategies all but abandoning the sector.  If risk assets continue to deteriorate, some of that rotation may start to reverse.</li>
</ul>


Utilities ownership among Asia Ex-Japan funds has fallen to its lowest levels on record. Average fund weights stand at an all-time low of 0.98%, with just 41.3% of funds invested
Record underweights driven by benchmark increases in stocks that active managers have ignored (Adani Green Energy, Adani Transmission and Adani Gas).
Investor flight driven by Growth investors, with Aggressive Growth strategies all but abandoning the sector.  If risk assets continue to deteriorate, some of that rotation may start to reverse.


Utilities: Record Underweight as Active Managers Exit

Hong Kong

China Resources Gas Group Ltd distributes natural gas and petroleum gas in the cities of Chengdu, Fuyang, Huaibei, Linhai, Suzhou and Wuxi in the PRC. The Company also operates compressed natural gas filling stations in Chengdu, Nanjing and Wuxi. The group also is involved in bottled liquefied petroleum gas distribution in cities of Fuyang, Suzhou and Wuxi.

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CR Gas (1193 HK)

CR Gas (1193 HK) – Eyes on 4Q Gas Dollar Margin and Solid Comprehensive Service Growth

We resume coverage and revised down our TP to HK$39.13 (based on 13x 2022E PE), reflecting prudent gas sales and dollar margin outlook.

CMB International

Kunlun Energy (135 HK): An Excellent Show

Impressive 1H22 result is a clear demonstration of Kunlun's operational strengths and cash generating ability. The market should ease concerns on...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Seeing Sign of an Upturn

Dollar margin recovery, strong integrated energy pipeline and value added business growth are key drivers for ENN Energy in 2H22 and FY23....

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Gas Holdings (384 HK): Not Giving It the Benefit of Doubt

China Gas has a diasppointing FY22 and we think its operating and financial guidances for FY23 are likely to be optimistic. We prefer Kunlun Energy...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Utilities: Record Underweight as Active Managers Exit

Utilities ownership among Asia Ex-Japan funds has fallen to its lowest levels on record. Average fund weights stand at an all-time low of 0.98%,...

Steven Holden

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