Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. </li>
<li>We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. </li>
<li>We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. </li>
</ul>


This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. 
We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. 
We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. 


The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our positive calls on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener">Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a> and negative call on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-environment-protection-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4827:1" rel="noopener">Conch Environment (587 HK)</a> have generated the best wins in 2022.</li>
<li>These calls achieved returns of 56.8%, 34.2% and 43.5%, respectively, which we think are remarkable given the losses of 16.3% for HSI and 19.3% for HSCEI YTD.</li>
<li>In 2023, we expect Fu Shou Yuan <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fu-shou-yuan-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18168:1" rel="noopener"></a>continue to do well and Conch Environment to remain under pressure. It may be prudent to take some profit on Air China. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener"></a> </li>
</ul>


Our positive calls on Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) and Air China Ltd (753 HK) and negative call on Conch Environment (587 HK) have generated the best wins in 2022.
These calls achieved returns of 56.8%, 34.2% and 43.5%, respectively, which we think are remarkable given the losses of 16.3% for HSI and 19.3% for HSCEI YTD.
In 2023, we expect Fu Shou Yuan continue to do well and Conch Environment to remain under pressure. It may be prudent to take some profit on Air China.  


Our Three Best Calls in 2022: Review and Outlook for 2023

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

China Southern Airlines / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Almost two years into China's travel recovery, November outbound activity grew strongly</li>
<li>Domestic air travel demand also showed solid growth, has accelerated since Spring '24</li>
<li>Trip.com best performing stock in this group in '24, but it no longer offers much value</li>
</ul>


Almost two years into China's travel recovery, November outbound activity grew strongly
Domestic air travel demand also showed solid growth, has accelerated since Spring '24
Trip.com best performing stock in this group in '24, but it no longer offers much value


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound, Domestic Both Solid | TCOM: 2024's Best (December 2024)

Cathay Pacific Airways / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>'s buyback of Qatar Airways' 9.57% stake should enhance its FY26F EPS and ROE by 4.6% and 0.36pp, respectively. </li>
<li>With passenger traffic and load factor continuing to recover, the consensus forecast of a 24.2% YoY earnings decline in 2H25 is too conservative, suggesting upside surprise. </li>
<li>Its FY25-27F ROE is a record since 2013, with potential to trade up to 1.65x P/B (30%+ upside). It is also possible to be included in the HSI again.</li>
</ul>



Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)'s buyback of Qatar Airways' 9.57% stake should enhance its FY26F EPS and ROE by 4.6% and 0.36pp, respectively. 
With passenger traffic and load factor continuing to recover, the consensus forecast of a 24.2% YoY earnings decline in 2H25 is too conservative, suggesting upside surprise. 
Its FY25-27F ROE is a record since 2013, with potential to trade up to 1.65x P/B (30%+ upside). It is also possible to be included in the HSI again.


Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Buyback of Qatar-Owned Shares Is Positive

<ul>
<li>Various statistics suggested that China's tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.</li>
<li>While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.</li>
<li>We like OTAs including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> stays as the top pick.</li>
</ul>


Various statistics suggested that China's tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.
While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.
We like OTAs including Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) stays as the top pick.


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

China

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides air transportation services. The Company offers passenger and freight air transportation services, aviation equipment maintenance and aircraft leasing services. Shanghai Airlines also provides ticket and hotel booking and consulting services. China Southern Airlines provides services worldwide.

Price Gauge
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China Southern Airlines (600029 CH)

Our Three Best Calls in 2022: Review and Outlook for 2023

In 2023, we expect share prices of Fu Shou Yuan to continue to do well and Conch Environment to remain under pressure. For Air China, given rich...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound, Domestic Both Solid | TCOM: 2024's Best (December 2024)

In November, both outbound and domestic travel activity were solid in China. Among the Chinese tourism related stocks we track, Trip.com was the...

Tracking Traffic

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Buyback of Qatar-Owned Shares Is Positive

Cathay Pacific's buyback of Qatar Airways' stake is expected to boost both EPS and ROE for FY26 and FY27, supporting valuations. It may also be...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

Quiddity's New & Improved And Really Quite Spiffy H/A Discount Monitor. All the H/A Pairs, universe & sector metrics, with interactive tables and...

Travis Lundy

Our Three Best Calls in 2022: Review and Outlook for 2023

In 2023, we expect share prices of Fu Shou Yuan to continue to do well and Conch Environment to remain under pressure. For Air China, given rich...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound, Domestic Both Solid | TCOM: 2024's Best (December 2024)

In November, both outbound and domestic travel activity were solid in China. Among the Chinese tourism related stocks we track, Trip.com was the...

Tracking Traffic

Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Buyback of Qatar-Owned Shares Is Positive

​Cathay Pacific's buyback of Qatar Airways' stake is expected to boost both EPS and ROE for FY26 and FY27, supporting valuations. It may also be...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

​China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Cathay Pacific's buyback of Qatar Airways' stake is expected to boost both EPS and ROE for FY26 and FY27, supporting valuations. It may also be...

China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...