HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China (H) (753 HK)</a> is proposing a new share placement to raise Rmb6bn and HK$2bn. EPS dilution is manageable at 6% so we view the proposal positively.  </li>
<li>The new equity will enhance book value by 11.5% and lower its gearing by 103pp to 399.8%. The full subscription by the parent is also a vote of confidence. </li>
<li>Recent share price weakness is due to the overall weakness in the Chinese equity market, but both macro and operating environments are improving. Selldown is unjustified.</li>
</ul>



Air China (H) (753 HK) is proposing a new share placement to raise Rmb6bn and HK$2bn. EPS dilution is manageable at 6% so we view the proposal positively.  
The new equity will enhance book value by 11.5% and lower its gearing by 103pp to 399.8%. The full subscription by the parent is also a vote of confidence. 
Recent share price weakness is due to the overall weakness in the Chinese equity market, but both macro and operating environments are improving. Selldown is unjustified.


2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - Update on Proposed Share Placement

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics</li>
<li>Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November</li>
<li>YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity</li>
</ul>


"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics
Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November
YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For segments we cover -- express, containers, tourism -- 2023 was challenging</li>
<li>In this note we highlight each segment's key trends and themes from 2023</li>
<li>We conclude with a look at 2023 share performance and a peak into 2024</li>
</ul>


For segments we cover -- express, containers, tourism -- 2023 was challenging
In this note we highlight each segment's key trends and themes from 2023
We conclude with a look at 2023 share performance and a peak into 2024


Key 2023 Trends & Themes in Asian Express, Containers, Tourism | Plus A Peak Into 2024

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 127.6% as of Dec 22nd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.9ppt week on week, led by communication services, real estate, utilities and offset by health care, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, China Southern, BYD, Fuyao Glass Industry.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 127.6% as of Dec 22nd.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.9ppt week on week, led by communication services, real estate, utilities and offset by health care, consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, China Southern, BYD, Fuyao Glass Industry.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 22nd): China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, China Southern, BYD

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

<ul>
<li>FT article uncovers other contributors to surging air freight rates—Chinese online brands Temu and Shein are flooding Western nations with fast fashion and inexpensive e-commerce goods  </li>
<li>The biggest beneficiaries are Chinese carriers with significant air cargo exposure, and Cathay Pacific. This presents a potential catalyst for an earnings beat and a boost to the share price.</li>
<li>Carriers from Taiwan and South Korea will benefit from supply tightness to the U.S.. Logistics providers are unlikely to benefit much due to tight margins and volatile high freight rates </li>
</ul>


FT article uncovers other contributors to surging air freight rates—Chinese online brands Temu and Shein are flooding Western nations with fast fashion and inexpensive e-commerce goods  
The biggest beneficiaries are Chinese carriers with significant air cargo exposure, and Cathay Pacific. This presents a potential catalyst for an earnings beat and a boost to the share price.
Carriers from Taiwan and South Korea will benefit from supply tightness to the U.S.. Logistics providers are unlikely to benefit much due to tight margins and volatile high freight rates 


China

China Southern Airlines Company Limited provides air transportation services. The Company offers passenger and freight air transportation services, aviation equipment maintenance and aircraft leasing services. Shanghai Airlines also provides ticket and hotel booking and consulting services. China Southern Airlines provides services worldwide.

Price Gauge
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China Southern Airlines (600029 CH)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

November outbound data were disappointing, and even domestic travel activity metrics appeared to move in the wrong direction. Not surprisingly,...

Tracking Traffic

Key 2023 Trends & Themes in Asian Express, Containers, Tourism | Plus A Peak Into 2024

In this insight we look at the important trends and themes we've covered this year in the express, containers, and tourism sectors. We also...

Tracking Traffic

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 22nd): China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, China Southern, BYD

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, China Southern, BYD, Fuyao...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

There's Something About Air Cargo

Chinese e-commerce platforms are driving up air freight rates, benefiting Chinese carriers and other North Asian carriers. This can be a catalyst...

Mohshin Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - Update on Proposed Share Placement

​Air China plans to raise Rmb6bn and HK$2bn through a new share placement to its parent. This will enhance book value by 11.5% and lower gearing by...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

November outbound data were disappointing, and even domestic travel activity metrics appeared to move in the wrong direction. Not surprisingly,...

Tracking Traffic

Key 2023 Trends & Themes in Asian Express, Containers, Tourism | Plus A Peak Into 2024

In this insight we look at the important trends and themes we've covered this year in the express, containers, and tourism sectors. We also...

Tracking Traffic

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 22nd): China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, China Southern, BYD

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Tourism, Ping An Insurance, China Southern, BYD, Fuyao...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

There's Something About Air Cargo

​Chinese e-commerce platforms are driving up air freight rates, benefiting Chinese carriers and other North Asian carriers. This can be a catalyst...

Mohshin Aziz

Air China plans to raise Rmb6bn and HK$2bn through a new share placement to its parent. This will enhance book value by 11.5% and lower gearing by...

Chinese e-commerce platforms are driving up air freight rates, benefiting Chinese carriers and other North Asian carriers. This can be a catalyst...