HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong / Equity Bottom-Up

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong

<ul>
<li>Share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)</a> (CTII) rallied 23% in last 3 months and 81% from its trough, which has well reflected the FY21 turnaround.</li>
<li>Risk-Return profile looks less attractive as its P/B multiple of 0.56x only provides 14% upside to the historical average of 0.63x. In other words, safety margin has diminished. </li>
<li>Macro picture turned against CTII - weaker-than-expected CNY visitors in Shenzhen, escalating Omicron cases in Hong Kong and caution on domestic tourism outlook all point to a more challenging FY22.</li>
</ul>


Share price of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK) (CTII) rallied 23% in last 3 months and 81% from its trough, which has well reflected the FY21 turnaround.
Risk-Return profile looks less attractive as its P/B multiple of 0.56x only provides 14% upside to the historical average of 0.63x. In other words, safety margin has diminished. 
Macro picture turned against CTII - weaker-than-expected CNY visitors in Shenzhen, escalating Omicron cases in Hong Kong and caution on domestic tourism outlook all point to a more challenging FY22.


China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): The Fruit Has Ripened?

<ul>
<li>Share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)</a> (CTII) rallied by 20% over the last 10 trading days but we see good room for more to come.</li>
<li>Our view is that HK-China border opening, revival in domestic tourism, supportive measures and upgrade in attractions are some key drivers for an increasing positive outlook.</li>
<li>At 0.45x 12-month forward P/B (1.5SD below average), there is significant potential for re-rating. Its net cash of HK$0.40/share, or 30% of share price, adds further comfort to us.</li>
</ul>


Share price of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK) (CTII) rallied by 20% over the last 10 trading days but we see good room for more to come.
Our view is that HK-China border opening, revival in domestic tourism, supportive measures and upgrade in attractions are some key drivers for an increasing positive outlook.
At 0.45x 12-month forward P/B (1.5SD below average), there is significant potential for re-rating. Its net cash of HK$0.40/share, or 30% of share price, adds further comfort to us.


China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): Here Comes My Turn!

We regard <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)</a> (CTII) as an alternative play on the encouraging economic growth outlook at Qianhai and Hengqin, given its presence in the nearby cities of Shenzhen and Zhuhai with theme parks and leisure resorts. We also see its profitability to sustain improvement in 2H21, after a very successful narrow-down of losses in 1H21.CTII has made continuous efforts in optimising its assets by disposing of underperforming ones and acquiring value-enhancing ones. We expect such strategy will become fruitful in 2H21 with the removal of losses at Songshan Scenic Spot and travel agency and document business, and the addition of profit from Hangzhou New Century Senbo. CTII is a laggard in the tourism space with a cheap 0.4x 12-month forward P/B. Its net cash of HK$1.14/share now almost equals to its share price, meaning that the market is valuing its businesses at zero value - this is just overly conservative.

We regard China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK) (CTII) as an alternative play on the encouraging economic growth outlook at Qianhai and Hengqin, given its presence in the nearby cities of Shenzhen and Zhuhai with theme parks and leisure resorts. We also see its profitability to sustain improvement in 2H21, after a very successful narrow-down of losses in 1H21.CTII has made continuous efforts in optimising its assets by disposing of underperforming ones and acquiring value-enhancing ones. We expect such strategy will become fruitful in 2H21 with the removal of losses at Songshan Scenic Spot and travel agency and document business, and the addition of profit from Hangzhou New Century Senbo. CTII is a laggard in the tourism space with a cheap 0.4x 12-month forward P/B. Its net cash of HK$1.14/share now almost equals to its share price, meaning that the market is valuing its businesses at zero value - this is just overly conservative.  

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): Alternative Play on Supportive Policies to Qianhai and Hengqin?

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)</a> (CTII) should see a good recovery in FY21, riding on the solid travel business as supported by the release of pent-up demand. Based on the anecdotal data for the Labour Day holidays, we think its tourist attractions segment, with presence spanning across many important travel spots in China, will likely lead a turnaround in 1H21, both in terms of HoH and YoY comparison.We also envisage that its hotel operations and passenger transportation will trim losses in FY21, as global vaccination rates increase and cross-border travel restrictions are gradually removed. Its hotels in Hong Kong have participated in staycation program and involved as quarantine hotel, which will both improve the cash flow of this business segment. We note that net cash amounted to 34.3% of CTII's current share price, providing ample room to comfortably move ahead on the recovery.

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK) (CTII) should see a good recovery in FY21, riding on the solid travel business as supported by the release of pent-up demand. Based on the anecdotal data for the Labour Day holidays, we think its tourist attractions segment, with presence spanning across many important travel spots in China, will likely lead a turnaround in 1H21, both in terms of HoH and YoY comparison.We also envisage that its hotel operations and passenger transportation will trim losses in FY21, as global vaccination rates increase and cross-border travel restrictions are gradually removed. Its hotels in Hong Kong have participated in staycation program and involved as quarantine hotel, which will both improve the cash flow of this business segment. We note that net cash amounted to 34.3% of CTII's current share price, providing ample room to comfortably move ahead on the recovery. 

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): Poised for a Sustained Recovery

Into 2021, share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)</a> (CTII) has started to pick up on improving fundamentals, but we expect more upside to come. The profit warning for FY20 is actually a "positive profit alert" for 2H20 as it showed that CTII has potentially turned around positively both on a HoH and YoY basis.Solid tourist traffic in its theme parks in Shenzhen during Chinese New Year holidays, value-enhancing acquisition of tourism business in Hangzhou and improving COVID-19 situation and vaccinations in Hong Kong all support sustained recovery in FY21. Meanwhile, disposal of non-core loss-making asset in Jan also provides part of the fund it needed for the Hangzhou acquisition, maintaining its highly solid balance sheet with net cash estimated at over 23% of the market cap.

Into 2021, share price of China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK) (CTII) has started to pick up on improving fundamentals, but we expect more upside to come. The profit warning for FY20 is actually a "positive profit alert" for 2H20 as it showed that CTII has potentially turned around positively both on a HoH and YoY basis.Solid tourist traffic in its theme parks in Shenzhen during Chinese New Year holidays, value-enhancing acquisition of tourism business in Hangzhou and improving COVID-19 situation and vaccinations in Hong Kong all support sustained recovery in FY21. Meanwhile, disposal of non-core loss-making asset in Jan also provides part of the fund it needed for the Hangzhou acquisition, maintaining its highly solid balance sheet with net cash estimated at over 23% of the market cap.

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): Market Discovering This Recovery Play but This Is Just the Beginning

Hong Kong

Operates as an investment holding, which engages in travel agency and related operations

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China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): The Fruit Has Ripened?

CTII has had a good rally in the last 6 months and has well reflected the FY21 turnaround. However, this has turned the risk-return profile less...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): Here Comes My Turn!

HK-China border opening, revival in domestic tourism, supportive measures and upgrade in attractions are some key drivers for an increasing...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): Alternative Play on Supportive Policies to Qianhai and Hengqin?

CTII has good presence in Shenzhen and Zhuhai, and we see sustained recovery into 2H21. Its asset optimisation strategy will start to bear fruit as...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): Poised for a Sustained Recovery

Good Labour Day holidays tourism traffic is supportive for the sustained recovery of CTII's tourist attraction segment. The growth in vaccination...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): Market Discovering This Recovery Play but This Is Just the Beginning

CTII posted solid evidence for a YoY and HoH turnaround in 2H20; and with good CNY performance for its China tourist attractions and improving...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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