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China Treasury (CHINA GOVT)

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bearish•Macroeconomics
•03 Apr 2020 20:19

India & Covid-19 – Modi’s Knee Jerk Reaction Costs the Poor and Businesses

The prospects of an outright recession are very real. Mr Modi’s 21-day lockdown was ill-conceived and has left India’s already enfeebled economy in...

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bullish•Macroeconomics
•28 Mar 2020 00:16

Costs of and Response to COVID-19

As the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic shifts from Europe to the US and the number of deaths and infection cases reach new highs, the costs...

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bearish•Macroeconomics
•25 Mar 2020 16:52

China's Vicious Stagflation Likely to Morph into Recession and Financial Crisis

We estimate an 8% YoY decline in real GDP in 1Q 2020, and -2% YoY in 2Q 2020 (as steel, for instance, first sees excess stockpiles in 1Q and a...

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bearish•Macroeconomics
•13 Mar 2020 22:13

Virus Fallout - Corporate Asia's Foreign Debt

Panic has replaced complacency as the number of new coronavirus cases outside China soar. If the worst-case scenario of a global profit-led...

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bearish•Macroeconomics
•31 Dec 2019 19:37

How China Has Defied the Monetarist View of the Quantity Theory of Money

The monetarists led by Milton Friedman argued that it is impossible to boost National Income or GDP in the medium- or long-term (i.e., for any...

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