External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The United States of America (USA) has announced revised reciprocal tariffs on trading partners on Jul 31, 2025. This was as per the Aug 01, 2025 deadline announced by the US government for making negotiations with trade partners over tariffs.</li><li>To recap, Pakistan exports US$6bn goods to USA (18%) and is country’s largest trading partner.</li><li>Last night, revised tariffs were announced by the US government, wherein Pakistan will now face reciprocal tariffs of 19% compared to earlier rate of 29%, reducing the impact by around 10ppts. However, some of the peer countries who were at much higher bracket before are almost at par with Pakistan now.</li></ul>

The United States of America (USA) has announced revised reciprocal tariffs on trading partners on Jul 31, 2025. This was as per the Aug 01, 2025 deadline announced by the US government for making negotiations with trade partners over tariffs.To recap, Pakistan exports US$6bn goods to USA (18%) and is country’s largest trading partner.Last night, revised tariffs were announced by the US government, wherein Pakistan will now face reciprocal tariffs of 19% compared to earlier rate of 29%, reducing the impact by around 10ppts. However, some of the peer countries who were at much higher bracket before are almost at par with Pakistan now.

Pakistan Market - Pakistan To Face 19% Reciprocal US Tariffs; Better Than India, But Largely At Par With Vietnam And Bangladesh

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>The USD market will be flooded with liquidity in Q4, accompanied by rate cuts, providing Chinese authorities with a window of opportunity to ease policy.</li>
<li>However, there is one issue: CNY liquidity is tightening now.</li>
<li>Welcome to our weekly China Watch, where we examine Chinese assets through the lens of Western investors and markets.</li>
</ul>


The USD market will be flooded with liquidity in Q4, accompanied by rate cuts, providing Chinese authorities with a window of opportunity to ease policy.
However, there is one issue: CNY liquidity is tightening now.
Welcome to our weekly China Watch, where we examine Chinese assets through the lens of Western investors and markets.


China Liquidity Watch: USD easing allowed China to ease, but there is a caveat..

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, where we examine Emerging Markets (with a particular focus on China) from the perspective of Western investors.</li><li>It continues to be a rough month for anything linked to China.</li><li>We have observed early signs of stabilization in China’s pollution data, which may indicate some level of stability at lower levels of industrial output.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, where we examine Emerging Markets (with a particular focus on China) from the perspective of Western investors.It continues to be a rough month for anything linked to China.We have observed early signs of stabilization in China’s pollution data, which may indicate some level of stability at lower levels of industrial output.

EM Watch: Time to play the long end of the Chinese yield curve?

<ul><li>China’s exports fired on all cylinders during the spring, but we are now starting to see signs of fading inventories in the US (and to some extent, Europe) again.</li><li>We believe the front-loading of imports, with rising freight rates being a symptom of this, propelled the Chinese economy ahead of the feared tariffs implemented by the Biden administration and potentially increased under a Trump presidency.</li><li>We know that Chinese exporters have front-loaded exports of cars and other goods ahead of the tariff deadlines in both the US and Europe, and we are now seeing freight rates moderating alongside some concerning nowcasts out of China.</li></ul>

China’s exports fired on all cylinders during the spring, but we are now starting to see signs of fading inventories in the US (and to some extent, Europe) again.We believe the front-loading of imports, with rising freight rates being a symptom of this, propelled the Chinese economy ahead of the feared tariffs implemented by the Biden administration and potentially increased under a Trump presidency.We know that Chinese exporters have front-loaded exports of cars and other goods ahead of the tariff deadlines in both the US and Europe, and we are now seeing freight rates moderating alongside some concerning nowcasts out of China.

EM Watch: 5 Charts on the Nosediving Chinese Indicators!

<ul><li>Welcome to our Weekly EM Watch, where we look at China and other large EM countries through the lens of Western macro investors.</li><li>Over the past week, we received the latest quarterly update on Chinese foreign direct investments and the situation went from dire to abysmal.</li><li>There is a net negative inward FDI flow, and despite a significant $190 billion surplus in customs goods and services, the basic balance, which comprises both the current account and FDI, recorded a substantial deficit of $30 billion for the first time.</li></ul>

Welcome to our Weekly EM Watch, where we look at China and other large EM countries through the lens of Western macro investors.Over the past week, we received the latest quarterly update on Chinese foreign direct investments and the situation went from dire to abysmal.There is a net negative inward FDI flow, and despite a significant $190 billion surplus in customs goods and services, the basic balance, which comprises both the current account and FDI, recorded a substantial deficit of $30 billion for the first time.

EM Watch: The Chinese race towards 0% interest rates

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Pakistan Market - Pakistan To Face 19% Reciprocal US Tariffs; Better Than India, But Largely At Par With Vietnam And Bangladesh

The United States of America (USA) has announced revised reciprocal tariffs on trading partners on Jul 31, 2025. This was as per the Aug 01, 2025...

Topline Securities

China Liquidity Watch: USD easing allowed China to ease, but there is a caveat..

The USD market will be flooded with liquidity in Q4, accompanied by rate cuts, providing Chinese authorities with a window of opportunity to ease...

Steno Research

EM Watch: Time to play the long end of the Chinese yield curve?

Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, where we examine Emerging Markets (with a particular focus on China) from the perspective of Western investors. It...

Steno Research

EM Watch: 5 Charts on the Nosediving Chinese Indicators!

China’s exports fired on all cylinders during the spring, but we are now starting to see signs of fading inventories in the US (and to some...

Steno Research

EM Watch: The Chinese race towards 0% interest rates

Welcome to our Weekly EM Watch, where we look at China and other large EM countries through the lens of Western macro investors. Over the past...

Steno Research

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