Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The global backdrop for the start of the year is better than anticipated, with a broad-based upturn in PMIs suggesting steady or even growing global and emerging market growth.</li><li>The US is experiencing some slowing in growth, but consumer demand is more solid, supported by strong labor markets and falling inflation.</li><li>China's GDP growth is expected to remain around 5.5% in the near term, but there are concerns about ongoing deflation, housing market weakness, and its impact on corporate revenues and private sector confidence. Outside of China, emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are seeing growth rebound, driven by improvements in consumer and industrial sectors.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The global backdrop for the start of the year is better than anticipated, with a broad-based upturn in PMIs suggesting steady or even growing global and emerging market growth.The US is experiencing some slowing in growth, but consumer demand is more solid, supported by strong labor markets and falling inflation.China's GDP growth is expected to remain around 5.5% in the near term, but there are concerns about ongoing deflation, housing market weakness, and its impact on corporate revenues and private sector confidence. Outside of China, emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are seeing growth rebound, driven by improvements in consumer and industrial sectors.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>China’s local governments spent a record 1.23 trillion yuan ($174 billion) on bond interest payments last year, up nearly 10% from 2022, official data showed Tuesday.</li><li>Outstanding local government debt has also been steadily climbing over the past few years, reaching 40.74 trillion yuan by the end of 2023 — a 16% year-on-year increase, according to data published by the Ministry of Finance.</li><li>This amount included general bonds, whose proceeds are used to pay for nonprofit projects with no revenue, and special-purpose bonds, which raise funds mainly for infrastructure investment.</li></ul>

China’s local governments spent a record 1.23 trillion yuan ($174 billion) on bond interest payments last year, up nearly 10% from 2022, official data showed Tuesday.Outstanding local government debt has also been steadily climbing over the past few years, reaching 40.74 trillion yuan by the end of 2023 — a 16% year-on-year increase, according to data published by the Ministry of Finance.This amount included general bonds, whose proceeds are used to pay for nonprofit projects with no revenue, and special-purpose bonds, which raise funds mainly for infrastructure investment.

China’s Local Governments Paid Record $174 Billion in Bond Interest Last Year 

<ul><li>Stocks / Analysis: Will China’s relaxed share buyback rules help or hinder the market?</li><li>China-Nauru /: China and Nauru formally resume diplomatic relations</li><li>RRR /: China to cut banks’ reserve requirements amid flagging recovery</li></ul>

Stocks / Analysis: Will China’s relaxed share buyback rules help or hinder the market?China-Nauru /: China and Nauru formally resume diplomatic relationsRRR /: China to cut banks’ reserve requirements amid flagging recovery

CX Daily: Will China’s Relaxed Share Buyback Rules Help or Hinder the Market? 

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.</li><li>Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative terms</li><li>Instead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.</li></ul>

Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative termsInstead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

<ul><li>The property slump is expected have slightly less of an impact on China’s economy in 2024 than feared, while fiscal support will play a bigger role, Wang Tao, UBS’s chief China economist, said at a Tuesday seminar.</li><li>The year-on-year growth rate in 2024 will be lower than that in 2023, but the economy will continue to recover and stabilize with a growth rate of about 4.5%, Wang said.</li><li>The biggest drag on the economy from the property slump happened in 2022, the economist said.</li></ul>

The property slump is expected have slightly less of an impact on China’s economy in 2024 than feared, while fiscal support will play a bigger role, Wang Tao, UBS’s chief China economist, said at a Tuesday seminar.The year-on-year growth rate in 2024 will be lower than that in 2023, but the economy will continue to recover and stabilize with a growth rate of about 4.5%, Wang said.The biggest drag on the economy from the property slump happened in 2022, the economist said.

UBS Economist Expects Less Property Drag on China’s Economy in 2024 

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China Treasury (CHINA GOVT)

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

The global economy is performing better than expected at the start of the year, with strong growth in emerging markets and resilient growth in...

At Any Rate

China’s Local Governments Paid Record $174 Billion in Bond Interest Last Year

China’s local governments spent a record 1.23 trillion yuan ($174 billion) on bond interest payments last year, up nearly 10% from 2022, official...

Caixin Global

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

Last time around in our EM series (see here) we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the...

Steno Research

UBS Economist Expects Less Property Drag on China’s Economy in 2024

The property slump is expected have slightly less of an impact on China’s economy in 2024 than feared, while fiscal support will play a bigger...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Fixed Income: Emerging Markets Outlook & Strategy for February

The global economy is performing better than expected at the start of the year, with strong growth in emerging markets and resilient growth in...

At Any Rate

China’s Local Governments Paid Record $174 Billion in Bond Interest Last Year

China’s local governments spent a record 1.23 trillion yuan ($174 billion) on bond interest payments last year, up nearly 10% from 2022, official...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: Will China’s Relaxed Share Buyback Rules Help or Hinder the Market?

Stocks / Analysis: Will China’s relaxed share buyback rules help or hinder the market? China’s new rules on listed companies’ share buybacks were...

Caixin Global

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

Last time around in our EM series (see here) we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the...

Steno Research

UBS Economist Expects Less Property Drag on China’s Economy in 2024

The property slump is expected have slightly less of an impact on China’s economy in 2024 than feared, while fiscal support will play a bigger...

Caixin Global