Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Contrary to many other Sentiment Indicators - which we don’t really understand - our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved into ‘Frenzy.’</li>
<li>China is considering launching a state-backed stabilization fund to boost the Chinese stock market. We show what happened the last time China came up with a similar move. </li>
<li>Even though headline and core inflation were close to expectations, the underlying data signals trouble. Powell’s favorite CPI measure, SuperCore inflation, rose 7.6% on an annualized basis in September. </li>
</ul>


Contrary to many other Sentiment Indicators - which we don’t really understand - our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved into ‘Frenzy.’
China is considering launching a state-backed stabilization fund to boost the Chinese stock market. We show what happened the last time China came up with a similar move. 
Even though headline and core inflation were close to expectations, the underlying data signals trouble. Powell’s favorite CPI measure, SuperCore inflation, rose 7.6% on an annualized basis in September. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Bad Inflation + Bad Sentiment = Bad Bounce?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Persistent overcapacity in industry and real-estate has resulted in a spreading crisis among  shadow-banks, as many of them begin defaulting on investment products (pseudo-deposits). Moral hazard rules out government rescues. </li>
<li>As global supply chains abandon China-centricity, exports continue losing global market share. But with domestic demand weak, the annualized trade surplus is US$900bn, much of it leaking as capital flight. </li>
<li>FAI is decelerating (adjusting to industrial capacity). Shrinking working age population requires productivity to be main driver of growth. Japanified decade ahead likely, but with RGDP growth settling at 3%. </li>
</ul>


Persistent overcapacity in industry and real-estate has resulted in a spreading crisis among  shadow-banks, as many of them begin defaulting on investment products (pseudo-deposits). Moral hazard rules out government rescues. 
As global supply chains abandon China-centricity, exports continue losing global market share. But with domestic demand weak, the annualized trade surplus is US$900bn, much of it leaking as capital flight. 
FAI is decelerating (adjusting to industrial capacity). Shrinking working age population requires productivity to be main driver of growth. Japanified decade ahead likely, but with RGDP growth settling at 3%. 


China's Slow-Burning Financial Crisis Worsens Amid Persistent Overcapacity

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>In Depth: China’s trillion-dollar local government ‘hidden debt’ dilemma</li><li>Corporate America is losing optimism over China, AmCham survey shows</li><li>China expands use of digital yuan to covering utility bills</li></ul>

In Depth: China’s trillion-dollar local government ‘hidden debt’ dilemmaCorporate America is losing optimism over China, AmCham survey showsChina expands use of digital yuan to covering utility bills

CX Daily: China’s Trillion-Dollar Local Government ‘Hidden Debt’ Dilemma

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>On August 9th, President Biden signed an executive order which addresses investment from US companies and individuals into China.</li>
<li>The executive order is a follow-up on the October 7, 2022 order to ban exports of advanced chips and other strategic technology, but the executive order focuses on investment in Chinese firms that operate in these areas, which was seen as a loophole in the October 7 order.</li>
<li>The Investment Screening order stipulates certain areas that are simply banned from investments, some areas where the government needs to be notified and then some areas that are completely exempt.</li>
</ul>


On August 9th, President Biden signed an executive order which addresses investment from US companies and individuals into China.
The executive order is a follow-up on the October 7, 2022 order to ban exports of advanced chips and other strategic technology, but the executive order focuses on investment in Chinese firms that operate in these areas, which was seen as a loophole in the October 7 order.
The Investment Screening order stipulates certain areas that are simply banned from investments, some areas where the government needs to be notified and then some areas that are completely exempt.


Investment Screening: Why Biden’s Order is Actually a Good Sign for US-China Relations

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul>
<li>We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.</li>
<li>If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.</li>
</ul>


We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.
The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.
If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.


Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

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China Treasury (CHINA GOVT)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Bad Inflation + Bad Sentiment = Bad Bounce?

Eurozone Equities are pricing in a massive improvement of the Credit Impulse (change in credit growth relative to GDP) that is unlikely to...

Jeroen Blokland

China's Slow-Burning Financial Crisis Worsens Amid Persistent Overcapacity

With trust companies defaulting, & Country Garden narrowly averting default, China's slow-burning financial crisis is speeding up. Overcapacity...

Prasenjit K. Basu

CX Daily: China’s Trillion-Dollar Local Government ‘Hidden Debt’ Dilemma

In Depth: China’s trillion-dollar local government ‘hidden debt’ dilemma Corporate America is losing optimism over China, AmCham survey...

Caixin Global

Investment Screening: Why Biden’s Order is Actually a Good Sign for US-China Relations

On August 9th, President Biden signed an executive order which addresses investment from US companies and individuals into China. The executive...

Steno Research

Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former...

Steno Research

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