HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gigadevice-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. </li>
<li>The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microchip-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8788:1" rel="noopener">Microchip Technology (MCHP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18804:1" rel="noopener">Texas Instruments (TXN US)</a>. </li>
<li>Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.</li>
</ul>



GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. 
The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely Microchip Technology (MCHP US) and Texas Instruments (TXN US). 
Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.


GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 162 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 60.8% as of Jan 9th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -8.4ppt week-on-week, led by health care, information technology, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hua Hong Semiconductor, China Coal Energy, Wuxi Apptec, Joinn Lab, Cmoc, Goldwind.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 162 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 60.8% as of Jan 9th.
The average A-H premium changed by -8.4ppt week-on-week, led by health care, information technology, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Hua Hong Semiconductor, China Coal Energy, Wuxi Apptec, Joinn Lab, Cmoc, Goldwind.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 9th): Hua Hong Semiconductor, China Coal Energy, Wuxi Apptec, Joinn Lab

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 9th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Zijin Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 9th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life, Alibaba, Kuaishou, Zijin Mining.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 9th): Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Xiaomi, Meituan, China Mobile, Tencent, CMB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Xiaomi, Meituan, China Mobile, Tencent, CMB.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (December): Lowest Monthly Inflows in a Year

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 162 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 69.1% as of Jan 2nd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, materials, health care and offset by consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Goldwind, Jiangxi Copper, Fudan Microelectronics, Guangzhou Automobile, Zijin Mining, Cmoc.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 162 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 69.1% as of Jan 2nd.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, materials, health care and offset by consumer discretionary.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Goldwind, Jiangxi Copper, Fudan Microelectronics, Guangzhou Automobile, Zijin Mining, Cmoc.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 2nd): Goldwind, Jiangxi Copper, Fudan Microelectronics, Guangzhou Automobile

China

China VAST Industrial Urban Development is an investment holding company primarily engaged in the planning, development, and operation of large-scale industrial towns across China. The company's core activities include land infrastructure development, property development and sales, and property leasing, alongside providing consulting and maintenance services. It was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

China VAST Industrial Urban Development (CVI HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China VAST Industrial Urban Development (CVI HK)

GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 9th): Hua Hong Semiconductor, China Coal Energy, Wuxi Apptec, Joinn Lab

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Hua Hong Semiconductor, China Coal Energy, Wuxi Apptec,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 9th): Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (December): Lowest Monthly Inflows in a Year

We analyzed Hong Kong Connect flows for December. While we highlight flows for Xiaomi, Meituan, China Mobile, Tencent and CMB, we also note that...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 2nd): Goldwind, Jiangxi Copper, Fudan Microelectronics, Guangzhou Automobile

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Goldwind, Jiangxi Copper, Fudan Microelectronics, Guangzhou...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

​GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 9th): Hua Hong Semiconductor, China Coal Energy, Wuxi Apptec, Joinn Lab

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Hua Hong Semiconductor, China Coal Energy, Wuxi Apptec,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jan 9th): Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China Life

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Xiaomi, China Mobile, Ping An Insurance, Tencent, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (December): Lowest Monthly Inflows in a Year

We analyzed Hong Kong Connect flows for December. While we highlight flows for Xiaomi, Meituan, China Mobile, Tencent and CMB, we also note that...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 2nd): Goldwind, Jiangxi Copper, Fudan Microelectronics, Guangzhou Automobile

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Goldwind, Jiangxi Copper, Fudan Microelectronics, Guangzhou...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...