Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Xiaomi Corp, Nickel Industries</li>
<li>In the US, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he anticipates only one interest rate cut this year, as he now thinks “we’re going to see inflation be very bumpy and not move dramatically and in a clear way to the 2% target”.</li>
<li>Mr Bostic currently projects that inflation will return to the central bank's 2% target at some point in early 2027, in line with the Fed's projections published last week.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Xiaomi Corp, Nickel Industries
In the US, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he anticipates only one interest rate cut this year, as he now thinks “we’re going to see inflation be very bumpy and not move dramatically and in a clear way to the 2% target”.
Mr Bostic currently projects that inflation will return to the central bank's 2% target at some point in early 2027, in line with the Fed's projections published last week.


<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Energy Solutions, China Water Affairs, Anton Oilfield, Tata Steel, China Vanke</li>
<li>In the US, December 2024 new-home sales rose 3.6% m-o-m (1.7% e / 9.6% revised p) to an annualised 698 k units. Full-year newhome sales were up 2.5% y-o-y at 683 k units, with the median sale price rising 2.1% to USD 427 k.</li>
<li>Treasuries rallied on haven demand amid a sell-off in equities, as well as on the back of a strong 5Y notes auction. The yield on the 2Y UST declined 7 bps to 4.20%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 9 bps to 4.54%.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Energy Solutions, China Water Affairs, Anton Oilfield, Tata Steel, China Vanke
In the US, December 2024 new-home sales rose 3.6% m-o-m (1.7% e / 9.6% revised p) to an annualised 698 k units. Full-year newhome sales were up 2.5% y-o-y at 683 k units, with the median sale price rising 2.1% to USD 427 k.
Treasuries rallied on haven demand amid a sell-off in equities, as well as on the back of a strong 5Y notes auction. The yield on the 2Y UST declined 7 bps to 4.20%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 9 bps to 4.54%.


<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Health and Happiness (H&amp;H), Anton Oilfield, Lippo Karawaci</li>
<li>In the US, the December Conference Board leading index inched down by 0.1% (-0.1% e / 0.4% revised p) in December to 101.6. The decrease was due to "low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment and a decline in building permits", according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager for Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board.</li>
<li>US President Donald Trump is considering imposing a 10% tariff on imports of Chinese goods as soon as February 1st, apparently due to fentanyl being trafficked into the US via Mexico and Canada, using chemicals from China.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Health and Happiness (H&amp;H), Anton Oilfield, Lippo Karawaci
In the US, the December Conference Board leading index inched down by 0.1% (-0.1% e / 0.4% revised p) in December to 101.6. The decrease was due to "low consumer confidence about future business conditions, still relatively weak manufacturing orders, an increase in initial claims for unemployment and a decline in building permits", according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager for Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board.
US President Donald Trump is considering imposing a 10% tariff on imports of Chinese goods as soon as February 1st, apparently due to fentanyl being trafficked into the US via Mexico and Canada, using chemicals from China.


Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangdong-investment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12109:1" rel="noopener">Guangdong Investment (270 HK)</a> exposure in water distribution provides the much-needed stability (low volatility). While its Real Estate exposure could provide some growth.</li>
<li>With low valuation and healthy dividend yield, owning GDI during the tumultuous period will provide healthy diversification for your portfolio and a hedge during Trump' tariff period.</li>
<li>The water sector is undervalued, mainly due to the characteristically low growth, but free cash flow is generally quite strong yet undervalued. GDI generated USD 1.3 bn Free cash flow.</li>
</ul>



Guangdong Investment (270 HK) exposure in water distribution provides the much-needed stability (low volatility). While its Real Estate exposure could provide some growth.
With low valuation and healthy dividend yield, owning GDI during the tumultuous period will provide healthy diversification for your portfolio and a hedge during Trump' tariff period.
The water sector is undervalued, mainly due to the characteristically low growth, but free cash flow is generally quite strong yet undervalued. GDI generated USD 1.3 bn Free cash flow.


Guangdong Investment (270): Stable Diversifier and USD 1.3 Bn FCF

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Canvest Environmental Protection Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grandblue-environment-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17887:1" rel="noopener">Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH)</a>’s HK$4.90 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 12 May. </li>
<li>Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (&lt;10% of independent shareholders' rejection). Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive.</li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 10 June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.3%/18.3%. </li>
</ul>



Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)’s IFA opines that Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH)’s HK$4.90 offer is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 12 May. 
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of independent shareholders (&lt;10% of independent shareholders' rejection). Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive.
This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 10 June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.3%/18.3%. 


Hong Kong

China Water Affairs Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, supplies city water and sewage treatment.  The Company supplies raw water and tap water, treats sewage, constructs water supply pipe networks, and installs water meters.

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China Water Affairs (855 HK)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Xiaomi Corp, Nickel...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Energy Solutions, China Water Affairs,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Health and Happiness...

Lucror Analytics

Guangdong Investment (270): Stable Diversifier and USD 1.3 Bn FCF

Guangdong Investment (270 HK) offers stability through water distribution and potential growth in real estate, with low valuation and healthy...

Henry Soediarko

Canvest (1381 HK): Scheme Vote on 12 May

This is a done deal as the vote is low-risk. At the last close and for a 10 June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.3%/18.3%.

Arun George

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52-week Range

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Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Xiaomi Corp, Nickel...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Energy Solutions, China Water Affairs,...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Health and Happiness...

Lucror Analytics

Guangdong Investment (270): Stable Diversifier and USD 1.3 Bn FCF

​Guangdong Investment (270 HK) offers stability through water distribution and potential growth in real estate, with low valuation and healthy...

Henry Soediarko

Canvest (1381 HK): Scheme Vote on 12 May

This is a done deal as the vote is low-risk. At the last close and for a 10 June payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.3%/18.3%.

Arun George

Guangdong Investment (270 HK) offers stability through water distribution and potential growth in real estate, with low valuation and healthy...