External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 6% YoY and 3% MoM to 1.97mn units in Sep 2023, 4% higher than our prior forecast.</li><li>YTD retail sales volume rose 4% YoY. Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY and 9% MoM to 2.49mn units in Sep 2023, the best Sep in history, and 9% higher than our prior forecast.</li><li>Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY (or +1.14mn units YoY) YTD, all aided by 67% YoY growth (or +1.14mn units YoY) of exports. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 6% YoY and 3% MoM to 1.97mn units in Sep 2023, 4% higher than our prior forecast.YTD retail sales volume rose 4% YoY. Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY and 9% MoM to 2.49mn units in Sep 2023, the best Sep in history, and 9% higher than our prior forecast.Wholesale volume rose 7% YoY (or +1.14mn units YoY) YTD, all aided by 67% YoY growth (or +1.14mn units YoY) of exports. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Strong 4Q23 sales mixed with rising competition

<ul><li>We summarize the Sep 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Aug 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Sep retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>Discounts at dealers for most brands widened MoM in Sep 2023, as the price war persists with more and more competitive product rollouts and raw material price decline. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Sep 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Aug 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Sep retail sales volume data have not been released yet.Discounts at dealers for most brands widened MoM in Sep 2023, as the price war persists with more and more competitive product rollouts and raw material price decline. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Sep discounts widened again

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> is in deletion zone and could be deleted. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> could be added to the index as the highest ranked non-index constituent.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.14% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.38bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> will be capped higher.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> is supported on its 50/100 day moving averages and could move higher. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> has been trading below its moving averages.</li>
</ul>



Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) is in deletion zone and could be deleted. China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) could be added to the index as the highest ranked non-index constituent.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.14% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.38bn. Meituan (3690 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) will be capped higher.

China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) is supported on its 50/100 day moving averages and could move higher. Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) has been trading below its moving averages.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Change; Capping Impact Increases

<ul><li>Nine Chinese automakers including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta and Leap reported their Sep 2023 sales volumes during 1-2 Oct 2023.</li><li>Sales volume of the nine automakers combined rose 52% YoY (ranged from -27% to +213%) and 5% MoM (ranged from -19% to 18%) in Sep 2023.</li><li>Li Auto slightly beat, NIO missed, Xpeng in line. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nine Chinese automakers including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta and Leap reported their Sep 2023 sales volumes during 1-2 Oct 2023.Sales volume of the nine automakers combined rose 52% YoY (ranged from -27% to +213%) and 5% MoM (ranged from -19% to 18%) in Sep 2023.Li Auto slightly beat, NIO missed, Xpeng in line. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Most NEV Brands’ Sep Sales Volume on Track

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chinese automotive maintenance services platform Tuhu Car has announced the terms for its HKEx IPO. Tuhu plans to raise net proceeds of HK$1.0-1.1bn (US$132-161m) through the issuance of 40.62m shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuhu-car" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36012:1" rel="noopener">Tuhu Car (2007986D HK)</a> 's franchised business model seems to have worked well, while its focus on high margin products/services have helped improve profitability.</li>
<li>In this insight, we discuss our forecasts and valuation for the company, and our analysis suggests that Tuhu Car’s IPO is priced reasonably.</li>
</ul>


Chinese automotive maintenance services platform Tuhu Car has announced the terms for its HKEx IPO. Tuhu plans to raise net proceeds of HK$1.0-1.1bn (US$132-161m) through the issuance of 40.62m shares.

Tuhu Car (2007986D HK) 's franchised business model seems to have worked well, while its focus on high margin products/services have helped improve profitability.
In this insight, we discuss our forecasts and valuation for the company, and our analysis suggests that Tuhu Car’s IPO is priced reasonably.


China

China Yongda Automobiles Services Holdings Ltd. retails passenger vehicles. The Company sells new and used vehicles and offers automobile rentals. China Yongda Automobiles also provides service.

China Yongda Automobile Services Hldg (3669 HK)

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China Yongda Automobile Services Hldg (3669 HK)

China Auto Sector – Strong 4Q23 sales mixed with rising competition

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 6% YoY and 3% MoM to 1.97mn units in Sep 2023, 4% higher than our prior forecast.

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Sep discounts widened again

Discounts at dealers for most brands widened MoM in Sep 2023, as the price war persists with more and more competitive product rollouts and raw...

CMB International

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Change; Capping Impact Increases

China Unicom IN, Zhongsheng Group OUT likely. Passive trackers will need to trade over 2x ADV on both stocks. Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent capped...

Brian Freitas

China Auto Sector – Most NEV Brands’ Sep Sales Volume on Track

Nine Chinese automakers including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta and Leap reported their Sep 2023 sales volumes during 1-2 Oct...

CMB International

Tuhu Car IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Tuhu Car priced its IPO at HK$28.00 per share, at the bottom end of the IPO price range and raised net proceeds of HK$1,081m (US$138m) excluding...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

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