Chairman, sgtradex

Tan Chin-Hwee

Chairman

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Two years ago I recalled during May/June period, put premiums were at double digits for the biggest china financial stocks. It was dirt cheap at low valuation pricing (3x p/e; 0.8x p/b) pricing in worse cases scenario. Clear Buy. In the last two months, US$1.7 trillion having been added to China&rsquo;s stock market capitalization with some Chinese valuations now look excessive (according to CLSA, China&rsquo;s nine largest listed stock brokers have a combined market cap US$319bn). Market is indeed hot, as an investor in a start-up P2P china financial portal-an additional 1 million new subscribers signed up in last 3 months! &nbsp;Overall, the influx of foreign money will be a great time for the SOE sector to deleverage and the banks to recapitalize and write down their debt.

Two years ago I recalled during May/June period, put premiums were at double digits for the biggest china financial stocks. It was dirt cheap at low valuation pricing (3x p/e; 0.8x p/b) pricing in worse cases scenario. Clear Buy.  In the last two months, US$1.7 trillion having been added to China&rsquo;s stock market capitalization with some Chinese valuations now look excessive (according to CLSA, China&rsquo;s nine largest listed stock brokers have a combined market cap US$319bn). Market is indeed hot, as an investor in a start-up P2P china financial portal-an additional 1 million new subscribers signed up in last 3 months! &nbsp;Overall, the influx of foreign money will be a great time for the SOE sector to deleverage and the banks to recapitalize and write down their debt.

A herd of fine horses are starting to head back to their home market

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.</li>
<li>In its October <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof</a>, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.</li>
<li>Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25.  The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It's now ~1.2x.
Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. made a strong debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Thursday, raising HK$9.2 billion ($1.2 billion) in the city’s largest carmaker IPO of the year and seeing its shares soar as much as 11.2%.</li><li>Shares closed at HK$31.90, up 3.7% from the IPO price of HK$30.80, giving the company a market capitalization of HK$184 billion — placing it nearly on par with rival Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.</li><li>The listing marks a major milestone for the state-owned automaker, founded in 1997, after several failed attempts to go public.</li></ul>

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. made a strong debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Thursday, raising HK$9.2 billion ($1.2 billion) in the city’s largest carmaker IPO of the year and seeing its shares soar as much as 11.2%.Shares closed at HK$31.90, up 3.7% from the IPO price of HK$30.80, giving the company a market capitalization of HK$184 billion — placing it nearly on par with rival Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.The listing marks a major milestone for the state-owned automaker, founded in 1997, after several failed attempts to go public.

Chery Automobile Raises $1.2 Billion in Hong Kong’s Biggest Carmaker IPO of 2025 

<ul>
<li>On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.</li>
<li>Dongfeng has now released the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/app/sehk/2025/107757/documents/sehk25100202720.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">application proof for VOYAH</a>, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.</li>
<li>The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.</li>
</ul>


On the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
Dongfeng has now released the application proof for VOYAH, with finances through to July 2025. Of interest, VOYAH is in the black for 7M25.
The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 2.1x.


Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH's Updated Financials

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfeng-motor-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:910:1" rel="noopener">Dongfeng Motor (489 HK)</a> announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.</li>
<li>The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.  </li>
<li>Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH's peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 22nd August, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH.
The share price closed up 54% on the first day, ~15% adrift of the independently valued cash + scrip (into VOYAH) under the privatisation.  
Shares have pared back 5% since. VOYAH's peer basket has fallen ~15% on average. The market is implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1x for VOYAH versus the basket average of 1.9x. 


Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation

China

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited develops, manufactures, and markets mini cars, mini sedans, full size sedans, and engines.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (200625 CH)

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Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (200625 CH)

A herd of fine horses are starting to head back to their home market

Two years ago I recalled during May/June period, put premiums were at double digits for the biggest china financial stocks. It was dirt cheap at...

Tan Chin-Hwee

Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH's Spin-Off Valuation

There's been a lot of enthusiasm for HK spin-offs of late, such as Zijin Mining and MINISO. I'm not convinced Dongfeng Motor deserves similar...

David Blennerhassett

Chery Automobile Raises $1.2 Billion in Hong Kong’s Biggest Carmaker IPO of 2025

Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. made a strong debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Thursday, raising HK$9.2 billion ($1.2 billion) in the city’s...

Caixin Global

Dongfeng (489 HK): On VOYAH's Updated Financials

There's been a lot of enthusiasm washing over HK spin-offs lately: Zijin Mining (2899 HK), MINISO (9896 HK), and now Dongfeng. I think Dongfeng is...

David Blennerhassett

Dongfeng (489 HK): Questioning The EV Listing Valuation

Tricky trade. I might've been overly bullish in my initial note. The gross spread (to my implied price) is perhaps ~11%. If not in, I'd be inclined...

David Blennerhassett

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