Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 24th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$432.1 million, led by information technology, materials, and offset by health care, consumer discretionary, consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Chongqing Changan Automobile, Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock, Sungrow Power Supply, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 24th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$432.1 million, led by information technology, materials, and offset by health care, consumer discretionary, consumer staples.
We highlight flows for Chongqing Changan Automobile, Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock, Sungrow Power Supply, BYD.


Northbound Flows (Nov 24th): Chongqing Changan Automobile, Sokon, Sungrow Power, BYD

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The investment logic of vaccine companies is different that of biotech. Generally speaking, vaccine companies cannot develop to large scale without successfully betting on big vaccine varieties.</li>
<li>The most fatal problem of CanSino is that there’re no other blockbuster varieties except COVID-19 vaccine. So, either CanSino develops a big variety,or it would gradually enter a vicious circle.</li>
<li>CanSino’s current valuation is at a low level. Even with many negative factors, that doesn't mean CanSino's stock price won't rebound. </li>
</ul>


The investment logic of vaccine companies is different that of biotech. Generally speaking, vaccine companies cannot develop to large scale without successfully betting on big vaccine varieties.
The most fatal problem of CanSino is that there’re no other blockbuster varieties except COVID-19 vaccine. So, either CanSino develops a big variety,or it would gradually enter a vicious circle.
CanSino’s current valuation is at a low level. Even with many negative factors, that doesn't mean CanSino's stock price won't rebound. 


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK) 2022 Results - It Is Time to Reassess CanSino and Its Future Prospects

<ul>
<li>Mismatch between blood products supply and demand is intensifying, but there’s little way to increase production capacity in short time, which offers a good time to invest blood products companies. </li>
<li>Investors should not be too greedy in front of every rally and rebound, but the proportion of medical expenditure and pension expenditure in China's GDP would still increase.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)</a> intends to IPO in Swiss. We think share price of CanSino would bounce back. It’s time to keep an eye on CanSino again. </li>
</ul>


Mismatch between blood products supply and demand is intensifying, but there’s little way to increase production capacity in short time, which offers a good time to invest blood products companies. 
Investors should not be too greedy in front of every rally and rebound, but the proportion of medical expenditure and pension expenditure in China's GDP would still increase.

CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH) intends to IPO in Swiss. We think share price of CanSino would bounce back. It’s time to keep an eye on CanSino again. 


China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.3)- CanSino, Blood Products Shortage, Don't Be Greedy in Front of Rally

Equity Capital Markets

Changchun BCHT Biotechnology C / Equity Capital Markets

Changchun BCHT Biotechnology C (688276 CH)

<ul>
<li>Single product structure is the biggest risk of BCHT. Varicella vaccine is hard to drive BCHT’s performance growth in the future and the sales of influenza vaccine are not ideal. </li>
<li>There’re concerns about the protection rate of attenuated zoster vaccine,which won't be officially sold until 2023H2/2024. It’s not sure whether the situation can be reversed by attenuated zoster vaccine alone.</li>
<li>BCHT is inferior to CanSino in terms of pipeline quality and R&amp;D capability. The investment value of BCHT is not high. We think its valuation should be lower than CanSino.</li>
</ul>


Single product structure is the biggest risk of BCHT. Varicella vaccine is hard to drive BCHT’s performance growth in the future and the sales of influenza vaccine are not ideal. 
There’re concerns about the protection rate of attenuated zoster vaccine,which won't be officially sold until 2023H2/2024. It’s not sure whether the situation can be reversed by attenuated zoster vaccine alone.
BCHT is inferior to CanSino in terms of pipeline quality and R&amp;D capability. The investment value of BCHT is not high. We think its valuation should be lower than CanSino.


Pre-IPO Changchun BCHT Biotechnology - The Risk of Single-Product Dependence and Uncertain Outlook

CanSino Biologics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27739:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK)</a> disclosed plans to publicly list in Switzerland, but the story of the fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine is difficult to boost its stock price/valuation. </li>
<li>According to CanSino’s management,MCV4’s commercialization faced some challenges, which means 2022 annual performance may not be good. 2021 would probably be a high point of CanSino’s performance in recent years.</li>
<li>Share price could pullback when 2022 annual report is released, which offers a better opportunity if investors want to go long, considering CanSino's long-term investment value analyzed in prior insights. </li>
</ul>



CanSino Biologics Inc (6185 HK) disclosed plans to publicly list in Switzerland, but the story of the fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine is difficult to boost its stock price/valuation. 
According to CanSino’s management,MCV4’s commercialization faced some challenges, which means 2022 annual performance may not be good. 2021 would probably be a high point of CanSino’s performance in recent years.
Share price could pullback when 2022 annual report is released, which offers a better opportunity if investors want to go long, considering CanSino's long-term investment value analyzed in prior insights. 


Pre-IPO CanSino Biologics - 2022 Annual Results May Be Ugly as MCV4 Commercialization Hit a Snag

China

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Company Ltd. researches, manufactures, and sells vaccines and biological products including prevention products, blood products, diagnostic reagents, and therapeutic agents.

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

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Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

Northbound Flows (Nov 24th): Chongqing Changan Automobile, Sokon, Sungrow Power, BYD

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Chongqing Changan Automobile, Sokon, Sungrow Power...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK) 2022 Results - It Is Time to Reassess CanSino and Its Future Prospects

CanSino had poor performance last year,but share price could bounce back in the next “sector resonance".There's no long-term investment value until...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Feb.3)- CanSino, Blood Products Shortage, Don't Be Greedy in Front of Rally

Contradiction between blood products supply and demand is intensifying. Cansino plans to IPO in Swiss -We see upside potential in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Changchun BCHT Biotechnology - The Risk of Single-Product Dependence and Uncertain Outlook

BCHT plans to IPO in Swiss. The risk of its over-reliance on a single product remains unresolved.The outlook of new attenuated zoster vaccine may...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO CanSino Biologics - 2022 Annual Results May Be Ugly as MCV4 Commercialization Hit a Snag

CanSino plans to IPO in Switzerland. MCV4 commercialization obstruction will aggravate 2022 performance pressure after the dividend of COVID-19...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)