HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The fake news about China reopen and the COVID-19 vaccine business are the major driving force for the rally of CanSino’s share price. However, such rally would not last long.</li>
<li>CanSino didn’t perform well in Q3 and 2022 would be a difficult year for CanSino. The major turning point of CanSino performance still lies in MCV4, not COVID-19 vaccines. </li>
<li>CanSino's H-share valuation has become more reasonable,but the downside risk in HKEX is hard to predict. Investors could consider offload and secure the gains. There’s better opportunity to long ahead.</li>
</ul>


The fake news about China reopen and the COVID-19 vaccine business are the major driving force for the rally of CanSino’s share price. However, such rally would not last long.
CanSino didn’t perform well in Q3 and 2022 would be a difficult year for CanSino. The major turning point of CanSino performance still lies in MCV4, not COVID-19 vaccines. 
CanSino's H-share valuation has become more reasonable,but the downside risk in HKEX is hard to predict. Investors could consider offload and secure the gains. There’s better opportunity to long ahead.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - Time to Offload; the Rally May Not Last Long

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products / Equity Bottom-Up

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

<ul>
<li>Due to the lack of competitiveness, Zhifei’s self-developed products cannot contribute solid performance to make up for the shrinking revenue of HPV vaccines when more competing products gradually launched.</li>
<li>The real potential of HPV vaccine market in China is not as big as imagined. So, the companies involved have the problem of inflated market values.</li>
<li>Due to low demand of COVID-19 vaccine/negative impact of pandemic on HPV vaccination, Zhifei's revenue YoY growth could be 10%-20%; Net profit YoY growth could be negative in 2022.</li>
</ul>


Due to the lack of competitiveness, Zhifei’s self-developed products cannot contribute solid performance to make up for the shrinking revenue of HPV vaccines when more competing products gradually launched.
The real potential of HPV vaccine market in China is not as big as imagined. So, the companies involved have the problem of inflated market values.
Due to low demand of COVID-19 vaccine/negative impact of pandemic on HPV vaccination, Zhifei's revenue YoY growth could be 10%-20%; Net profit YoY growth could be negative in 2022.


Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - More Downside Ahead, with Untenable Logic in HPV Vaccine

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cansino-biologics-inc-cc0c90b7-e854-4ba3-929b-914be1bd0d89" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32181:1" rel="noopener">CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)'</a>s business has made some positive progress recently, including the launch of COVID-19 Vaccine for Inhalation, commercialization and development progress of MCV4/PCV13i, etc. </li>
<li>CanSino's technology platforms are very valuable and are above average level. Currently, there’re little potential domestic competitors, because CanSino’s products are newer, better and safer than domestic homogenized products.</li>
<li>Even based on conservative forecast, CanSino’s valuation in HKEX is “ridiculously low”. Considering the downside risk in HKEX, CanSino A-share could be better option before valuation in HKEX becomes reasonable.</li>
</ul>



CanSino Biologics Inc (688185 CH)'s business has made some positive progress recently, including the launch of COVID-19 Vaccine for Inhalation, commercialization and development progress of MCV4/PCV13i, etc. 
CanSino's technology platforms are very valuable and are above average level. Currently, there’re little potential domestic competitors, because CanSino’s products are newer, better and safer than domestic homogenized products.
Even based on conservative forecast, CanSino’s valuation in HKEX is “ridiculously low”. Considering the downside risk in HKEX, CanSino A-share could be better option before valuation in HKEX becomes reasonable.


CanSino Biologics Inc (688185.CH/6185.HK) - Some Positive Progress in Business

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>AIM needs to rely on both human rabies vaccine and HBV vaccine to contribute majority revenue,but the outlook is challenging. Their revenue would decline due to competition and product upgrading.</li>
<li>Most of AIM’s vaccine candidates are in early development stages. There’re many competing candidates in more advanced development stages.The pipeline lacks competitiveness and it's hard to generate forecasted profits.</li>
<li>Although the issue price is discounted significantly, AIM is still overvalued. Reducing the size of IPO to maintain a good share price doesn’t work. When investors exit,accumulated pressure will explode.</li>
</ul>


AIM needs to rely on both human rabies vaccine and HBV vaccine to contribute majority revenue,but the outlook is challenging. Their revenue would decline due to competition and product upgrading.
Most of AIM’s vaccine candidates are in early development stages. There’re many competing candidates in more advanced development stages.The pipeline lacks competitiveness and it's hard to generate forecasted profits.
Although the issue price is discounted significantly, AIM is still overvalued. Reducing the size of IPO to maintain a good share price doesn’t work. When investors exit,accumulated pressure will explode.


Pre-IPO AIM Vaccine - AIM Is Overvalued, with Uncompetitive Pipeline and Challenging Outlook

<ul>
<li>CanSino’s performance declined in 22H1 due to decreased demand of COVID-19 vaccine. Since we have analyzed our concerns on performance in prior insight, there should be psychological expectations for the decline.</li>
<li>The COVID-19 vaccine business brings CanSino rich cash flow and helps it establish commercial team. Together with MCV2/MCV4/mRNA/PCV13i, it's too early to be completely bearish on CanSino.</li>
<li>The market has exaggerated the impact of performance decline of COVID-19 vaccine on CanSino. Although 2022 is a difficult year, it is a good time to bottom fish this stock.</li>
</ul>


CanSino’s performance declined in 22H1 due to decreased demand of COVID-19 vaccine. Since we have analyzed our concerns on performance in prior insight, there should be psychological expectations for the decline.
The COVID-19 vaccine business brings CanSino rich cash flow and helps it establish commercial team. Together with MCV2/MCV4/mRNA/PCV13i, it's too early to be completely bearish on CanSino.
The market has exaggerated the impact of performance decline of COVID-19 vaccine on CanSino. Although 2022 is a difficult year, it is a good time to bottom fish this stock.


CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) 2022H1 - It's Too Early to Be Completely Bearish on CanSino

China

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Company Ltd. researches, manufactures, and sells vaccines and biological products including prevention products, blood products, diagnostic reagents, and therapeutic agents.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products (300122 CH)

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) - Time to Offload; the Rally May Not Last Long

The fake news about China reopen and COVID-19 vaccine business are major driving force for the rally of CanSino’s share price, but such rally would...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zhifei Biological Products (300122.CH) - More Downside Ahead, with Untenable Logic in HPV Vaccine

Zhifei’s HPV vaccine will face real risk as competing products launch from 2024. The real potential of China HPV vaccine market is much lower than...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CanSino Biologics Inc (688185.CH/6185.HK) - Some Positive Progress in Business

Cansino has made positive progress in commercialization and R&D recently. We look forward to the performance of MCV4 in H2. Its valuation in HKEX...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO AIM Vaccine - AIM Is Overvalued, with Uncompetitive Pipeline and Challenging Outlook

AIM's products/pipeline are lack of competitiveness due to fierce competition and product upgrading, with gloomy outlook. Although the issue price...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CanSino Biologics (6185.HK/688185.CH) 2022H1 - It's Too Early to Be Completely Bearish on CanSino

The market has exaggerated the impact of performance decline of COVID-19 vaccine on CanSino. Although 2022 is a difficult year, considering MCV2...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)