Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss about various aspects of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> 's H1 FY2026 financial performance. It discusses about divergent performance by region and product.</li>
<li>Details in this note include why dark clouds are looming over the stock price of this counter and why the valuation multiple could decline.</li>
<li>Finally, we conclude discuss on valuation and how this will impact the stock price.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss about various aspects of Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) 's H1 FY2026 financial performance. It discusses about divergent performance by region and product.
Details in this note include why dark clouds are looming over the stock price of this counter and why the valuation multiple could decline.
Finally, we conclude discuss on valuation and how this will impact the stock price.


Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK): Dark Clouds Are Looming; Valuation Multiple Could Decline

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> reported strong operational performance for the quarter ended September 2025. This insight shares details about the performance.</li>
<li>The recent changes in tax incentive will impact jewelry manufacturers. This insight details about this.</li>
<li>Finally, we cover various points which will drive the near term performance of the company.</li>
</ul>



Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) reported strong operational performance for the quarter ended September 2025. This insight shares details about the performance.
The recent changes in tax incentive will impact jewelry manufacturers. This insight details about this.
Finally, we cover various points which will drive the near term performance of the company.


Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK): Strong Q2 Operations, Tax Challenges, Future Remains Puzzling

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> is one of the best-performing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> constituents YTD, but it is time to take some money off the table.</li>
<li>At 5%, its 12-month forward dividend yield is about the lowest in the last five years, implying limited share price upside. Valuations have run ahead of earnings momentum.</li>
<li>The recent recovery in Hong Kong jewellery retail sales is partly due to the low base effect. Additionally, a higher gold price will weigh on demand for gold products. </li>
</ul>



Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) is one of the best-performing Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents YTD, but it is time to take some money off the table.
At 5%, its 12-month forward dividend yield is about the lowest in the last five years, implying limited share price upside. Valuations have run ahead of earnings momentum.
The recent recovery in Hong Kong jewellery retail sales is partly due to the low base effect. Additionally, a higher gold price will weigh on demand for gold products. 


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>China gold jewelry demand slumped in 2Q2025, while investment demand for coins and bars remained resilient amidst rise in gold prices, according to data released by China Gold Association.</li>
<li>If gold rally continues, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> faces heightened demand growth risk due to reliance on the competitive, price-sensitive, consumption-driven jewellery segment.</li>
<li>Chow Tai Fook’s 140% YTD rally reflects optimism on branding-driven earnings growth, but <strong>stretched valuations overlook downside risks to growth if gold prices keep rising.</strong>
</li>
</ul>


China gold jewelry demand slumped in 2Q2025, while investment demand for coins and bars remained resilient amidst rise in gold prices, according to data released by China Gold Association.
If gold rally continues, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) faces heightened demand growth risk due to reliance on the competitive, price-sensitive, consumption-driven jewellery segment.
Chow Tai Fook’s 140% YTD rally reflects optimism on branding-driven earnings growth, but stretched valuations overlook downside risks to growth if gold prices keep rising.



Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Strong Rally, Weak Jewellery Demand. Growth Risks.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> saw lowest degrowth in retail sales value(RSV) in Q1FY26 among last few quarters.</li>
<li>Same-Store sales growth showed a clear sequential improvement across key regions. Mainland China self-operated stores saw the decline narrow sharply.</li>
<li>Driven by store optimization and brand transformation, earnings quality should sustain. At 16.9x P/E valuation on FY26e EPS, we believe investors will increasingly view CTF as a long-term structural winner.</li>
</ul>



Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) saw lowest degrowth in retail sales value(RSV) in Q1FY26 among last few quarters.
Same-Store sales growth showed a clear sequential improvement across key regions. Mainland China self-operated stores saw the decline narrow sharply.
Driven by store optimization and brand transformation, earnings quality should sustain. At 16.9x P/E valuation on FY26e EPS, we believe investors will increasingly view CTF as a long-term structural winner.


Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) - What’s Clicking in Q1FY26? Brand Revamp, Cost Focus and SSS Recovery

Hong Kong

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited retails jewelry.  The Company sells rings, necklaces, earrings, pendants, bracelets, and small statues.  Chow Tai Fook Jewellery operates retail stores in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Singapore.

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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK): Dark Clouds Are Looming; Valuation Multiple Could Decline

Insight on Chow Tai Fook Jewellery's H1 FY2026 financial performance, highlighting regional and product performance, potential stock price...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK): Strong Q2 Operations, Tax Challenges, Future Remains Puzzling

Risk to our full year estimates of 40% YoY EPS growth as Chow Tai Fook reported flattish performance in 1HFY2026. Revenue at HK$38.99bn was down...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

CTF is a top-performing HSI constituent YTD, but with low dividend yield and high valuations, it may be time to sell. Recovery in HK jewellery...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Strong Rally, Weak Jewellery Demand. Growth Risks.

Downside risk to the stock as stretched valuations overlook the risk of worsening jewellery sales if the gold rally continues.

Devi Subhakesan

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) - What’s Clicking in Q1FY26? Brand Revamp, Cost Focus and SSS Recovery

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group shows improved retail sales and operational metrics in Q1FY26, positioning as a long-term winner with 16.9x P/E...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK): Dark Clouds Are Looming; Valuation Multiple Could Decline

​Insight on Chow Tai Fook Jewellery's H1 FY2026 financial performance, highlighting regional and product performance, potential stock price...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK): Strong Q2 Operations, Tax Challenges, Future Remains Puzzling

Risk to our full year estimates of 40% YoY EPS growth as Chow Tai Fook reported flattish performance in 1HFY2026. Revenue at HK$38.99bn was down...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

CTF is a top-performing HSI constituent YTD, but with low dividend yield and high valuations, it may be time to sell. Recovery in HK jewellery...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): Strong Rally, Weak Jewellery Demand. Growth Risks.

Downside risk to the stock as stretched valuations overlook the risk of worsening jewellery sales if the gold rally continues.

Devi Subhakesan

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) - What’s Clicking in Q1FY26? Brand Revamp, Cost Focus and SSS Recovery

​Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group shows improved retail sales and operational metrics in Q1FY26, positioning as a long-term winner with 16.9x P/E...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Insight on Chow Tai Fook Jewellery's H1 FY2026 financial performance, highlighting regional and product performance, potential stock price...

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group shows improved retail sales and operational metrics in Q1FY26, positioning as a long-term winner with 16.9x P/E...