HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhou-liu-fu-jewellery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43706:1" rel="noopener">Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (6168 HK)</a> has an impressive debut, but it is currently expensive, at 4.33x PEG with just a 3-year EPS CAGR of 4.7%.</li>
<li>It is overpriced by ROE vs. P/B, given it stands higher than the best-fit line. Its inferior market position in the industry makes it deserve to trade below.</li>
<li>At 20% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>, it should value at HK$27.80. Even at par, it still implies an 8.5% downside. </li>
</ul>



Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (6168 HK) has an impressive debut, but it is currently expensive, at 4.33x PEG with just a 3-year EPS CAGR of 4.7%.
It is overpriced by ROE vs. P/B, given it stands higher than the best-fit line. Its inferior market position in the industry makes it deserve to trade below.
At 20% discount to Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), it should value at HK$27.80. Even at par, it still implies an 8.5% downside. 


Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): Are We or the Market Wrong?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 27th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Meituan, Li Auto, Beke, BOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 27th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Meituan, Li Auto, Beke, BOC.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Li Auto, Beke, BOC

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 4th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kingsoft (3888 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 4th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kingsoft (3888 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 4th): Tencent, AIA, Kingsoft

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following a 20% rally in 1H25, the market has built in excessive optimism on the HSI. Historically, average returns for Jul-Oct are negative, suggesting caution is needed.</li>
<li>The top 10 best-performing constituents are sitting on 24x FY25F PER, much higher than 11x for the Index, implying that earnings excitement has been well factored in. </li>
<li>Among the worst-performing ones in 1H25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> look appealing in 2H25.</li>
</ul>


Following a 20% rally in 1H25, the market has built in excessive optimism on the HSI. Historically, average returns for Jul-Oct are negative, suggesting caution is needed.
The top 10 best-performing constituents are sitting on 24x FY25F PER, much higher than 11x for the Index, implying that earnings excitement has been well factored in. 
Among the worst-performing ones in 1H25, BYD Electronics (285 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Techtronic Industries (669 HK) look appealing in 2H25.


<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 20th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Baba, Chow Tai Fook, Za Online, Cspc Pharma, BOC, Petrochina.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 20th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Baba, Chow Tai Fook, Za Online, Cspc Pharma, BOC, Petrochina.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Chow Tai Fook, Za Online, Cspc Pharma, BOC, Petrochina

Hong Kong

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited retails jewelry.  The Company sells rings, necklaces, earrings, pendants, bracelets, and small statues.  Chow Tai Fook Jewellery operates retail stores in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Singapore.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): Are We or the Market Wrong?

Zhou Liu Fu's impressive debut is overshadowed by its expensive valuation of 4.33x PEG with a low EPS CAGR. Comparisons to Chow Tai Fook suggest...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Li Auto, Beke, BOC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 27th and highlight short interest changes in Meituan, Li Auto, Beke, BOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 4th): Tencent, AIA, Kingsoft

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: Some Ideas for 2H25

Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Chow Tai Fook, Za Online, Cspc Pharma, BOC, Petrochina

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 20th and highlight short interest changes in Baba, Chow Tai Fook, Za...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): Are We or the Market Wrong?

​Zhou Liu Fu's impressive debut is overshadowed by its expensive valuation of 4.33x PEG with a low EPS CAGR. Comparisons to Chow Tai Fook suggest...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Li Auto, Beke, BOC

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 27th and highlight short interest changes in Meituan, Li Auto, Beke, BOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 4th): Tencent, AIA, Kingsoft

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: Some Ideas for 2H25

​Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, Chow Tai Fook, Za Online, Cspc Pharma, BOC, Petrochina

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jun 20th and highlight short interest changes in Baba, Chow Tai Fook, Za...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Zhou Liu Fu's impressive debut is overshadowed by its expensive valuation of 4.33x PEG with a low EPS CAGR. Comparisons to Chow Tai Fook suggest...

Excessive optimism on HSI after a 20% rally YTD, caution needed for Jul-Oct as historically returns are negative. BYD Electronic, Haier Smart...