Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,400+ insights shared on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we look at where value remains in a difficult year for luxury, review momentum in offshore services, and assess two sides of the insurance sector. </li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,400+ insights shared on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we look at where value remains in a difficult year for luxury, review momentum in offshore services, and assess two sides of the insurance sector. 
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you'd like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Luxury Losing Lustre, Offshore Revived & Insurance's Two Sides

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Arnault family proposes a cash OPR at 95% of CDI's look-through NAV, based on LVMH's one-month VWAP ahead of the December EGM.</li>
<li>At €425.40, CDI trades at 91.7% of current NAV, versus the proposed 95% exit level, implying 3.6% gross upside at current LVMH prices.</li>
<li>Long CDI / short ~1.11 LVMH hedges most of the initial market exposure, with the short reduced progressively as the December VWAP fixes.</li>
</ul>


Arnault family proposes a cash OPR at 95% of CDI's look-through NAV, based on LVMH's one-month VWAP ahead of the December EGM.
At €425.40, CDI trades at 91.7% of current NAV, versus the proposed 95% exit level, implying 3.6% gross upside at current LVMH prices.
Long CDI / short ~1.11 LVMH hedges most of the initial market exposure, with the short reduced progressively as the December VWAP fixes.


Podcast on In-depth Business Talks, Speedwell Research

The Synopsis

Podcast on In-depth Business Talks

Speedwell Research

Speedwell Research spends hundreds of hours researching public businesses each month and in "The Synopsis" they share their key learnings. Most business podcasts are superficial and assume their listeners are unsophisticated. In contrast, The Synopsis trusts listeners are interested in learning about complex, industry-specific issues, so long as they are explained clearly. We cover businesses from inception to current day, coupling business analysis and an investors lens. Start listening today to become a better analyst and investor.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Webinar with former Prada board member discussing luxury landscape and investor trends</li><li>Nvidia's strong earnings initially sparked global rally, but tech stock sell-off signals market caution</li><li>Dior executive predicts return to growth in luxury market by 2026, emphasizes product innovation and pricing discipline for success</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Webinar with former Prada board member discussing luxury landscape and investor trendsNvidia's strong earnings initially sparked global rally, but tech stock sell-off signals market cautionDior executive predicts return to growth in luxury market by 2026, emphasizes product innovation and pricing discipline for successThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Briefing. Copart Market Share Loss, Nvidia Can't Hold, Dior Expert Call, AppFolio Investor Meeting

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

France

Christian Dior SE manufactures luxury products such as upscale clothing, champagne and wines, cognac and spirits, luggage and leather goods, perfumes and cosmetics, and jewelry and watches.  The Company markets its products internationally.

Price Gauge
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Christian Dior SE (CDI FP)

Curator's Cut: Luxury Losing Lustre, Offshore Revived & Insurance's Two Sides

In this Curator's Cut, we survey luxury's retreat, revisit offshore services, and assess differing drivers in insurance from policy headwinds to...

Pranav Rao

Christian Dior: Tailoring the LVMH Hedge

Dior’s floating-price OPR creates an unusual relative-value setup. We look at what the current price implies and how to hedge the LVMH exposure...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: Luxury Losing Lustre, Offshore Revived & Insurance's Two Sides

In this Curator's Cut, we survey luxury's retreat, revisit offshore services, and assess differing drivers in insurance from policy headwinds to...

Pranav Rao

Christian Dior: Tailoring the LVMH Hedge

Dior’s floating-price OPR creates an unusual relative-value setup. We look at what the current price implies and how to hedge the LVMH exposure...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Briefing. Copart Market Share Loss, Nvidia Can't Hold, Dior Expert Call, AppFolio Investor Meeting

Global markets experience volatility as luxury landscape evolves, Nasdaq sells off, Bitcoin drops, and US job market shows mixed results.

The Synopsis

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research