Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.</li>
<li>FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.</li>
<li>Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.</li>
</ul>


Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.
FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.
Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.


Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Chuangxin Industries / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chuangxin-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45636:1" rel="noopener">Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK)</a> raised around US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK) raised around US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


Chuangxin Industries IPO Trading: Good Insti Sub Rates but Peers Have Traded Down

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Despite an overwhelming response and a 26-30% surge in the grey market, at 8.3x FY26 PER,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chuangxin-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45636:1" rel="noopener">Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)</a>'s IPO price does not generate much excitement for us. </li>
<li>Heavy reliance on connected transactions with the controlling shareholder, pressure on margins in the future, and a highly leveraged balance sheet are concerns. </li>
<li>We do not think it justifies trading at a premium to peers, hence, limited upside from now. The small free float, however, will increase the share price volatility.</li>
</ul>


Despite an overwhelming response and a 26-30% surge in the grey market, at 8.3x FY26 PER,  Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK)'s IPO price does not generate much excitement for us. 
Heavy reliance on connected transactions with the controlling shareholder, pressure on margins in the future, and a highly leveraged balance sheet are concerns. 
We do not think it justifies trading at a premium to peers, hence, limited upside from now. The small free float, however, will increase the share price volatility.


Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK): It Doesn't Pay to Be Aggressive

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chuangxin-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45636:1" rel="noopener">Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.</li>
<li>In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.</li>
</ul>



Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK) is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.
In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.


Chuangxin Pre-IPO: Increasing Exposure to Volatile Alumina; Offered at Premium to Peers

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chuangxin-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45636:1" rel="noopener">Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK)</a> is looking to raise at least US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the firm's past performance.</li>
</ul>



Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK) is looking to raise at least US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain.
In this note, we look at the firm's past performance.


Chuangxin Industries Pre-IPO: Weak 5M25 and Large Chunk of Revenue from Related Party

Hong Kong

Chuangxin Industries is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting within the upstream of the aluminum industry chain. Its business is centered on the upstream segments of the aluminum industry chain i.e. alumina refining and aluminum smelting.

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Chuangxin Industries (CXI HK)

Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Rahul Jain

Chuangxin Industries IPO Trading: Good Insti Sub Rates but Peers Have Traded Down

Chuangxin Industries raises US$700m in Hong Kong IPO, focusing on alumina refining and aluminum smelting in the industry chain. Analysis on demand...

Nicholas Tan

Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK): It Doesn't Pay to Be Aggressive

Chuangxin's IPO fails to excite despite a grey market surge, with concerns over connected transactions, margin pressure, and leverage. Limited...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chuangxin Pre-IPO: Increasing Exposure to Volatile Alumina; Offered at Premium to Peers

Chuangxin is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s...

Nicholas Tan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

​Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Rahul Jain

Chuangxin Industries IPO Trading: Good Insti Sub Rates but Peers Have Traded Down

​Chuangxin Industries raises US$700m in Hong Kong IPO, focusing on alumina refining and aluminum smelting in the industry chain. Analysis on demand...

Nicholas Tan

Chuangxin Industries (2788 HK): It Doesn't Pay to Be Aggressive

​Chuangxin's IPO fails to excite despite a grey market surge, with concerns over connected transactions, margin pressure, and leverage. Limited...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chuangxin Pre-IPO: Increasing Exposure to Volatile Alumina; Offered at Premium to Peers

Chuangxin is looking to raise up to US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s...

Nicholas Tan

Chuangxin Industries Pre-IPO: Weak 5M25 and Large Chunk of Revenue from Related Party

Chuangxin Industries is looking to raise at least US$700m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. It is focused on alumina refining and aluminum smelting....

Nicholas Tan

Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Chuangxin Industries raises US$700m in Hong Kong IPO, focusing on alumina refining and aluminum smelting in the industry chain. Analysis on demand...

Chuangxin's IPO fails to excite despite a grey market surge, with concerns over connected transactions, margin pressure, and leverage. Limited...