Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Hengrui outlicenses once-weekly oral obesity drug candidate HRS-1596, to Novo for total deal value of $2.6B. EC revoked the EU marketing authorization for Hansoh’s lung cancer drug aumolertinib.</li>
<li>Roche halts development of obesity drug candidate emugrobart and returns all rights to Chugai. Daiichi Sankyo has withdrawn the BLA seeking accelerated approval in the U.S. for I-DXd for ES-SCLC.</li>
<li>Otsuka initiates NDA submission to the FDA for zipalertinib for the treatment of NSCLC. Sun Pharma inlicenses hypercholesterolaemia and dyslipidaemia drug lerodalcibep from LIB Therapeutics.</li>
</ul>


Hengrui outlicenses once-weekly oral obesity drug candidate HRS-1596, to Novo for total deal value of $2.6B. EC revoked the EU marketing authorization for Hansoh’s lung cancer drug aumolertinib.
Roche halts development of obesity drug candidate emugrobart and returns all rights to Chugai. Daiichi Sankyo has withdrawn the BLA seeking accelerated approval in the U.S. for I-DXd for ES-SCLC.
Otsuka initiates NDA submission to the FDA for zipalertinib for the treatment of NSCLC. Sun Pharma inlicenses hypercholesterolaemia and dyslipidaemia drug lerodalcibep from LIB Therapeutics.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 4) – Hengrui, Hansoh, Chugai Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Otsuka, Sun Pharma

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> reported a rise of 15% YoY in revenue to ¥663.3B. Mainstay alongside new products help maintain growth momentum in both domestic and overseas market.</li>
<li>2026 guidance reiterated. Revenue expected to increase 7% YoY. Core profit numbers expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each. Achieved almost 43-46% of their 2026 headline guidance numbers.</li>
<li>Although Chugai is still hugely dependent on Hemlibra export, new launches are slowly gaining momentum. Moreover, new breakthrough products like orforglipron will help provide some traction to the growth momentum.</li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported a rise of 15% YoY in revenue to ¥663.3B. Mainstay alongside new products help maintain growth momentum in both domestic and overseas market.
2026 guidance reiterated. Revenue expected to increase 7% YoY. Core profit numbers expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each. Achieved almost 43-46% of their 2026 headline guidance numbers.
Although Chugai is still hugely dependent on Hemlibra export, new launches are slowly gaining momentum. Moreover, new breakthrough products like orforglipron will help provide some traction to the growth momentum.


Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Guidance Reiterated As Both Overseas & Domestic Grow in 1H26

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has been trading sideways between 35,000 and 40,000 for the past eleven weeks.</li>
<li>A short straddle allows investors who believe that the Nikkei 225 continues to trade sideways to earn a profit of up to 7% in six weeks.</li>
<li>This Insight presents the strategy rationale, profit and loss profile, back-testing and risk management measures. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has been trading sideways between 35,000 and 40,000 for the past eleven weeks.
A short straddle allows investors who believe that the Nikkei 225 continues to trade sideways to earn a profit of up to 7% in six weeks.
This Insight presents the strategy rationale, profit and loss profile, back-testing and risk management measures. 


EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Opportunity – Earn Premium in Sideways Markets with Straddles

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Nomura Research Institute / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paper-industries-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:557:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) </li>
<li>Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) will replace Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP) and Dic Corp (4631 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) 
Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> reported a rise of 11.5% YoY in revenue to ¥321.7B. Hemlibra overseas sales stood at ¥108.9B (37% of total sales), up 26% YoY.</li>
<li>2026 guidance reiterated. Revenue is expected to increase to ¥1,345B (up 7% YoY). Both core operating profit and core net income expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each.</li>
<li>Eli Lilly received the U.S. FDA approval for Founday (orforglipron) for adults with obesity and it has been launched in the US market in early April 2026.</li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported a rise of 11.5% YoY in revenue to ¥321.7B. Hemlibra overseas sales stood at ¥108.9B (37% of total sales), up 26% YoY.
2026 guidance reiterated. Revenue is expected to increase to ¥1,345B (up 7% YoY). Both core operating profit and core net income expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each.
Eli Lilly received the U.S. FDA approval for Founday (orforglipron) for adults with obesity and it has been launched in the US market in early April 2026.


Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra Drive 1Q26, 2026 Guidance Reiterated, Orforglipron Launched in US

Japan

Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals products. The Company develops drugs in the fields of cancer, infectious diseases, bone, blood, and circulatory systems. Chugai Pharmaceutical also conducts research studies on drugs with private and public medical research institutions globally.

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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JT)

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 4) – Hengrui, Hansoh, Chugai Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Otsuka, Sun Pharma

Hengrui stuck $2.6B outlicensing deal with Novo. EC revoked EU marketing authorization of Hansoh’s aumolertinib. Otsuka initiates NDA submission to...

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Guidance Reiterated As Both Overseas & Domestic Grow in 1H26

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP) reports growth in both domestic and overseas markets in 1H26. 2026 guidance reiterated. Hemlibra export still key but new...

Tina Banerjee

EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Opportunity – Earn Premium in Sideways Markets with Straddles

Investors can earn a premium by using a short straddle strategy on the Nikkei 225, which has been trading sideways for the past eleven weeks.

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra Drive 1Q26, 2026 Guidance Reiterated, Orforglipron Launched in US

Chugai Pharma reports 11.5% revenue increase as Hemlibra overseas sales up 26% YoY. 2026 guidance reiterated. FDA approval for Founday...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 4) – Hengrui, Hansoh, Chugai Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Otsuka, Sun Pharma

Hengrui stuck $2.6B outlicensing deal with Novo. EC revoked EU marketing authorization of Hansoh’s aumolertinib. Otsuka initiates NDA submission to...

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Guidance Reiterated As Both Overseas & Domestic Grow in 1H26

​Chugai Pharma (4519 JP) reports growth in both domestic and overseas markets in 1H26. 2026 guidance reiterated. Hemlibra export still key but new...

Tina Banerjee

EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Opportunity – Earn Premium in Sideways Markets with Straddles

​Investors can earn a premium by using a short straddle strategy on the Nikkei 225, which has been trading sideways for the past eleven weeks.

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra Drive 1Q26, 2026 Guidance Reiterated, Orforglipron Launched in US

​Chugai Pharma reports 11.5% revenue increase as Hemlibra overseas sales up 26% YoY. 2026 guidance reiterated. FDA approval for Founday...

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP) reports growth in both domestic and overseas markets in 1H26. 2026 guidance reiterated. Hemlibra export still key but new...

Investors can earn a premium by using a short straddle strategy on the Nikkei 225, which has been trading sideways for the past eleven weeks.

Chugai Pharma reports 11.5% revenue increase as Hemlibra overseas sales up 26% YoY. 2026 guidance reiterated. FDA approval for Founday...