Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Nomura Research Institute / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-paper-industries-co-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:557:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) </li>
<li>Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP) and Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) will replace Nippon Paper Industries Co L (3863 JP) and Dic Corp (4631 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s CPAF will drop from 3 to 2.7 and there will be further selling in March 2025 as the CPAF drops to 2.4 (or possibly even 2.1!) 
Passives will need to buy 7-15x ADV (13-14% of real float) in the adds and sell 2.7-6.5x ADV in the deletes. There is a big reverse funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> reported a rise of 11.5% YoY in revenue to ¥321.7B. Hemlibra overseas sales stood at ¥108.9B (37% of total sales), up 26% YoY.</li>
<li>2026 guidance reiterated. Revenue is expected to increase to ¥1,345B (up 7% YoY). Both core operating profit and core net income expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each.</li>
<li>Eli Lilly received the U.S. FDA approval for Founday (orforglipron) for adults with obesity and it has been launched in the US market in early April 2026.</li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported a rise of 11.5% YoY in revenue to ¥321.7B. Hemlibra overseas sales stood at ¥108.9B (37% of total sales), up 26% YoY.
2026 guidance reiterated. Revenue is expected to increase to ¥1,345B (up 7% YoY). Both core operating profit and core net income expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each.
Eli Lilly received the U.S. FDA approval for Founday (orforglipron) for adults with obesity and it has been launched in the US market in early April 2026.


Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra Drive 1Q26, 2026 Guidance Reiterated, Orforglipron Launched in US

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CSPC Pharmaceutical’s SYS6010 met primary endpoint in Phase 3 study as a monotherapy for NSCLC. Akeso’s ivonescimab demonstrates significant overall survival in Phase 3 trial for advanced biliary tract cancer.</li>
<li>Takeda Pharma secured FDA approval for Mimrylo (rusfertide) for the treatment of erythrocytosis in adults with polycythemia vera. Astellas Pharma initiates global Phase 3 study evaluating ASP2138 for gastric cancers.</li>
<li>Hanmi Pharm outlicenses obesity drug candidate HM1732 to Genentech for a total deal value of $2.3B. SK Biopharmaceuticals entered an agreement to in-license opakalim, an investigational antiseizure medication, from Biohaven.</li>
</ul>


CSPC Pharmaceutical’s SYS6010 met primary endpoint in Phase 3 study as a monotherapy for NSCLC. Akeso’s ivonescimab demonstrates significant overall survival in Phase 3 trial for advanced biliary tract cancer.
Takeda Pharma secured FDA approval for Mimrylo (rusfertide) for the treatment of erythrocytosis in adults with polycythemia vera. Astellas Pharma initiates global Phase 3 study evaluating ASP2138 for gastric cancers.
Hanmi Pharm outlicenses obesity drug candidate HM1732 to Genentech for a total deal value of $2.3B. SK Biopharmaceuticals entered an agreement to in-license opakalim, an investigational antiseizure medication, from Biohaven.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (August 30)– CSPC Pharma, Akeso, Takeda, Astellas, Hanmi Pharm, SK Biopharma

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> reported Hemlibra overseas sales of ¥344.5B (27% of total sales), up 12% YoY. Higher volumes boosted Actemra revenue (up 20% YoY) amid declining export unit price.</li>
<li>2026 guidance announced. Revenue is expected to increase to ¥1,345B (up 7% YoY). Both core operating profit and core net income expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each.</li>
<li>Eli Lilly has applied for approval from the US FDA to market orforglipron for obesity. The drug high sales potential and is expected to win an approval sometime in 2026.</li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) reported Hemlibra overseas sales of ¥344.5B (27% of total sales), up 12% YoY. Higher volumes boosted Actemra revenue (up 20% YoY) amid declining export unit price.
2026 guidance announced. Revenue is expected to increase to ¥1,345B (up 7% YoY). Both core operating profit and core net income expected to increase by 7.5% YoY each.
Eli Lilly has applied for approval from the US FDA to market orforglipron for obesity. The drug high sales potential and is expected to win an approval sometime in 2026.


Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra, Actemra Hold the Show Together, Orforglipron Is The Next Big Draw

<ul>
<li>Henlius Biotech is collaborating with Sandoz for commercialization of up to 10 biosimilars in ~$322M deal. Wuxi XDC achieved GMP release of its antibody bioconjugates production line at Singapore site.</li>
<li>Chugai Pharmaceutical signed an exclusive license agreement with GSK for the anti-dengue virus antibody AID351. Daiichi Sankyo’s Enhertu demonstrated PFS improvement as first-line treatment of NSCLC in Phase 3 trial.</li>
<li>Celltrion has launched IV formulation of Steqeyma in Japan. Eubiologics submitted an IND to the MFDS for domestic Phase 1 trial for its Alzheimer’s disease vaccine candidate, Padivax.</li>
</ul>


Henlius Biotech is collaborating with Sandoz for commercialization of up to 10 biosimilars in ~$322M deal. Wuxi XDC achieved GMP release of its antibody bioconjugates production line at Singapore site.
Chugai Pharmaceutical signed an exclusive license agreement with GSK for the anti-dengue virus antibody AID351. Daiichi Sankyo’s Enhertu demonstrated PFS improvement as first-line treatment of NSCLC in Phase 3 trial.
Celltrion has launched IV formulation of Steqeyma in Japan. Eubiologics submitted an IND to the MFDS for domestic Phase 1 trial for its Alzheimer’s disease vaccine candidate, Padivax.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (August 23) – Henlius Bio, Wuxi XDC, Chugai Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Celltrion

Japan

Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals products. The Company develops drugs in the fields of cancer, infectious diseases, bone, blood, and circulatory systems. Chugai Pharmaceutical also conducts research studies on drugs with private and public medical research institutions globally.

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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JT)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra Drive 1Q26, 2026 Guidance Reiterated, Orforglipron Launched in US

Chugai Pharma reports 11.5% revenue increase as Hemlibra overseas sales up 26% YoY. 2026 guidance reiterated. FDA approval for Founday...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (August 30)– CSPC Pharma, Akeso, Takeda, Astellas, Hanmi Pharm, SK Biopharma

CSPC and Akeso announced positive results from their respective Phase 3 trials for cancer drug candidates. Takeda got FDA approval for blood cancer...

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra, Actemra Hold the Show Together, Orforglipron Is The Next Big Draw

Chugai Pharmaceutical reports strong overseas sales in 2025. Announces 2026 guidance. FDA approval for obesity drug orforglipron will be the next...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (August 23) – Henlius Bio, Wuxi XDC, Chugai Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Celltrion

Henlius strikes biosimilar commercialization deal with Sandoz. Chugai signs exclusive license deal with GSK for anti-dengue virus antibody....

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: NRI, Ryohin Keikaku IN; Nippon Paper, DIC OUT; Fast Retailing Capped

Nomura Research Institute and Ryohin Keikaku replace Nippon Paper and DIC in the Nikkei 225. Fast Retailing will be capped (and probably again in...

Brian Freitas

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra Drive 1Q26, 2026 Guidance Reiterated, Orforglipron Launched in US

​Chugai Pharma reports 11.5% revenue increase as Hemlibra overseas sales up 26% YoY. 2026 guidance reiterated. FDA approval for Founday...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (August 30)– CSPC Pharma, Akeso, Takeda, Astellas, Hanmi Pharm, SK Biopharma

CSPC and Akeso announced positive results from their respective Phase 3 trials for cancer drug candidates. Takeda got FDA approval for blood cancer...

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharma (4519 JP): Hemlibra, Actemra Hold the Show Together, Orforglipron Is The Next Big Draw

​Chugai Pharmaceutical reports strong overseas sales in 2025. Announces 2026 guidance. FDA approval for obesity drug orforglipron will be the next...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (August 23) – Henlius Bio, Wuxi XDC, Chugai Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Celltrion

Henlius strikes biosimilar commercialization deal with Sandoz. Chugai signs exclusive license deal with GSK for anti-dengue virus antibody....

Tina Banerjee

Chugai Pharma reports 11.5% revenue increase as Hemlibra overseas sales up 26% YoY. 2026 guidance reiterated. FDA approval for Founday...

Chugai Pharmaceutical reports strong overseas sales in 2025. Announces 2026 guidance. FDA approval for obesity drug orforglipron will be the next...