Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> witnessed 6% revenue growth in 2025. Mainstay pharmaceutical business (+7% YoY) drove revenue. Rexulti, Lonsurf and Abilify remained strong.</li>
<li>Otsuka announced 2026 guidance and expects the revenue to be up 2% to ¥2520B backed by Rexulti, Abilify and Voyxact. Profit is expected to stand at ¥265B, down 27% YoY.</li>
<li>Top selling drugs are steadily gaining traction. Going ahead, Otsuka is banking on new drugs like sibeprenlimab to further drive growth. We recommend to Hold the stock for now.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) witnessed 6% revenue growth in 2025. Mainstay pharmaceutical business (+7% YoY) drove revenue. Rexulti, Lonsurf and Abilify remained strong.
Otsuka announced 2026 guidance and expects the revenue to be up 2% to ¥2520B backed by Rexulti, Abilify and Voyxact. Profit is expected to stand at ¥265B, down 27% YoY.
Top selling drugs are steadily gaining traction. Going ahead, Otsuka is banking on new drugs like sibeprenlimab to further drive growth. We recommend to Hold the stock for now.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): All Eyes on Sibeprenlimab in Likely Stable 2026, More Approvals Awaited

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a> entered into a strategic collaboration and license agreement with AstraZeneca for the development of innovative long-acting peptide medicines.</li>
<li>CSPC will receive upfront payment of US$1.2B and will be eligible for US$3.5B in R&amp;D milestone payments, US$13.8B in sales milestone payments, plus up to double-digit royalties.</li>
<li>CSPC’s play in the weight management drug scene will surely help boost revenues, but intense competition is likely to make the party short lived.</li>
</ul>



CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) entered into a strategic collaboration and license agreement with AstraZeneca for the development of innovative long-acting peptide medicines.
CSPC will receive upfront payment of US$1.2B and will be eligible for US$3.5B in R&amp;D milestone payments, US$13.8B in sales milestone payments, plus up to double-digit royalties.
CSPC’s play in the weight management drug scene will surely help boost revenues, but intense competition is likely to make the party short lived.


CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): AstraZeneca Collaboration Good, Impact Might Be Short Lived Given Competition

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> reported 10% YoY revenue growth in 9MFY26. Core operating profit increased to ¥442.1B, up 49% YoY driven by cost optimization through sustainable margin transformation program.</li>
<li>Strategic brands (Padcev, Izervay, Veozah, Vyloy, Xospata), which recorded underlying growth of 45% YoY and contributed 22% of revenue, drove overall revenue growth.</li>
<li>Astellas revised FY26 guidance upwards considering the strong performance of Xtandi and Mirabegron, along with the trend of foreign exchange rates.</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) reported 10% YoY revenue growth in 9MFY26. Core operating profit increased to ¥442.1B, up 49% YoY driven by cost optimization through sustainable margin transformation program.
Strategic brands (Padcev, Izervay, Veozah, Vyloy, Xospata), which recorded underlying growth of 45% YoY and contributed 22% of revenue, drove overall revenue growth.
Astellas revised FY26 guidance upwards considering the strong performance of Xtandi and Mirabegron, along with the trend of foreign exchange rates.


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Strategic Brands Gain Further Momentum, Margins Expand, Guidance Revised

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg reported that an entity owned by the CEO is considering an MBO of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a> at a valuation of around JPY450 billion.</li>
<li>Assuming that the rumoured valuation refers to market cap based on outstanding shares, it suggests an offer around JPY6,000, a 15.4% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>Hisamitsu confirmed that it plans to announce an MBO today. An offer of JPY6,000 is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.  </li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reported that an entity owned by the CEO is considering an MBO of Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) at a valuation of around JPY450 billion.
Assuming that the rumoured valuation refers to market cap based on outstanding shares, it suggests an offer around JPY6,000, a 15.4% premium to the last close.
Hisamitsu confirmed that it plans to announce an MBO today. An offer of JPY6,000 is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples.  


Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): An Imminent MBO at a Rumoured JPY450 Billion Valuation

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Nov 7th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD20,487m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Nintendo, Recruit, IHI, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Softbank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Nov 7th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD20,487m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Nintendo, Recruit, IHI, Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Softbank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 7th): SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext

Japan

Chugai Pharmaceutical Company Ltd., manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals in the domestic and international markets through its subsidiaries. The Company develops drugs in the fields of cancer, infectious diseases, bone, blood, and circulatory systems. Chugai Pharmaceutical also conducts research studies on drugs with private and public medical research institutions.

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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): All Eyes on Sibeprenlimab in Likely Stable 2026, More Approvals Awaited

Otsuka Holdings saw 6% revenue growth in 2025 driven by pharmaceutical business. Top selling drugs and new products like sibeprenlimab will be in...

Tina Banerjee

CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): AstraZeneca Collaboration Good, Impact Might Be Short Lived Given Competition

CSPC Pharma partnered with AstraZeneca for long-acting peptide medicines, receiving substantial upfront and milestone payments. Weight loss drug...

Tina Banerjee

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Strategic Brands Gain Further Momentum, Margins Expand, Guidance Revised

Astellas Pharma sees revenue growth in 9MFY26 driven by strategic brands and cost optimization lead to an increase in core profits. Revised FY26...

Tina Banerjee

Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): An Imminent MBO at a Rumoured JPY450 Billion Valuation

Hisamitsu confirmed that it plans to announce an MBO today. An offer at the rumoured JPY450bn valuation is attractive compared to precedent...

Arun George

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 7th): SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SoftBank (9984 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Fujikura (5803 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

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Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): All Eyes on Sibeprenlimab in Likely Stable 2026, More Approvals Awaited

​Otsuka Holdings saw 6% revenue growth in 2025 driven by pharmaceutical business. Top selling drugs and new products like sibeprenlimab will be in...

Tina Banerjee

CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): AstraZeneca Collaboration Good, Impact Might Be Short Lived Given Competition

​CSPC Pharma partnered with AstraZeneca for long-acting peptide medicines, receiving substantial upfront and milestone payments. Weight loss drug...

Tina Banerjee

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Strategic Brands Gain Further Momentum, Margins Expand, Guidance Revised

​Astellas Pharma sees revenue growth in 9MFY26 driven by strategic brands and cost optimization lead to an increase in core profits. Revised FY26...

Tina Banerjee

Hisamitsu Pharma (4530 JP): An Imminent MBO at a Rumoured JPY450 Billion Valuation

Hisamitsu confirmed that it plans to announce an MBO today. An offer at the rumoured JPY450bn valuation is attractive compared to precedent...

Arun George

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Nov 7th): SoftBank, Advantest, Fujikura, Sanrio, Socionext

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted SoftBank (9984 JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Fujikura (5803 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Otsuka Holdings saw 6% revenue growth in 2025 driven by pharmaceutical business. Top selling drugs and new products like sibeprenlimab will be in...

CSPC Pharma partnered with AstraZeneca for long-acting peptide medicines, receiving substantial upfront and milestone payments. Weight loss drug...

Astellas Pharma sees revenue growth in 9MFY26 driven by strategic brands and cost optimization lead to an increase in core profits. Revised FY26...