Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In April, Silchester went after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiga-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18665:1" rel="noopener">Shiga Bank (8366 JP)</a>(<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-activism-silchester-goes-after-shiga-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:69339" rel="noopener">JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Silchester Goes After Shiga Bank</a>), with an open letter decrying destruction of shareholder value, asking for a special dividend. </li>
<li>They said Shiga Bank had excess cross-holdings and perennially low ROE (it does). Silchester asked for a minimal special div as a signal. Shareholders dinged their request at the AGM. </li>
<li>Shiga Bank had a decent runup in the last several months - far outstripping its peers. Now it is rich. Time to take the trade off.</li>
</ul>


In April, Silchester went after Shiga Bank (8366 JP)(JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Silchester Goes After Shiga Bank), with an open letter decrying destruction of shareholder value, asking for a special dividend. 
They said Shiga Bank had excess cross-holdings and perennially low ROE (it does). Silchester asked for a minimal special div as a signal. Shareholders dinged their request at the AGM. 
Shiga Bank had a decent runup in the last several months - far outstripping its peers. Now it is rich. Time to take the trade off.


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Silchester Target Shiga Bank Dings the Div Proposal Badly

<ul>
<li>Silchester International Investors targeted the AGMs of four Japanese regional banks in which it had held shares for 12-17yrs writing open letters, and asking each for a small special dividend.</li>
<li>One was heavily over-capitalised and significant cross-holding owning <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11177:1" rel="noopener">Chugoku Bank (8382 JP)</a> </li>
<li>Their Shareholder Proposal flopped badly. The shareholder structure isn't there to support it, now or in future, and among regional banks, this is on the "less attractive" side valuation-wise.</li>
</ul>


Silchester International Investors targeted the AGMs of four Japanese regional banks in which it had held shares for 12-17yrs writing open letters, and asking each for a small special dividend.
One was heavily over-capitalised and significant cross-holding owning Chugoku Bank (8382 JP) 
Their Shareholder Proposal flopped badly. The shareholder structure isn't there to support it, now or in future, and among regional banks, this is on the "less attractive" side valuation-wise.


JAPAN ACTIVISM:  Silchester's Chugoku Bank AGM Ploy Fails - Won't Be an Activism Target

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>If Silchester's activism towards <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiga-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18665:1" rel="noopener">Shiga (8366 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11177:1" rel="noopener">Chugoku (8382 JP)</a> is going to be fought, it is going to be fought in the Japanese media, not in the AGM convocation. </li>
<li>The idea that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> de-merger could be thwarted is something which could dampen spirits on the stock near-term</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> as a risk arb situation is trading wide. It should trade tighter. </li>
</ul>


If Silchester's activism towards Shiga (8366 JP) &amp; Chugoku (8382 JP) is going to be fought, it is going to be fought in the Japanese media, not in the AGM convocation. 
The idea that the AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) de-merger could be thwarted is something which could dampen spirits on the stock near-term

Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) as a risk arb situation is trading wide. It should trade tighter. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hitachi Transport, Shiga Bank, CP Food, AGL, Woodside/BHP, Yamada Denki

<ul>
<li>In early February 2022, Silchester International Investors (according to its website) sent letters to four low-ROE-earning Japanese regional banks proposing a new dividend policy.</li>
<li>The management and boards of each bank rejected the policy proposal though two of the four had upped their proposed dividend or changed policy prior, and two upped it afterwards.</li>
<li>While Bank of Kyoto is the biggest equity portfolio, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugoku-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11177:1" rel="noopener">Chugoku Bank (8382 JP)</a> is a relatively large, provincial, regional bank, with middling equity portfolio. Different shape. Different situation.</li>
</ul>


In early February 2022, Silchester International Investors (according to its website) sent letters to four low-ROE-earning Japanese regional banks proposing a new dividend policy.
The management and boards of each bank rejected the policy proposal though two of the four had upped their proposed dividend or changed policy prior, and two upped it afterwards.
While Bank of Kyoto is the biggest equity portfolio, Chugoku Bank (8382 JP) is a relatively large, provincial, regional bank, with middling equity portfolio. Different shape. Different situation.


JAPAN ACTIVISM: Silchester Goes After Chugoku Bank

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Equity Bottom-Up

The unexpected cut to FY3/2021 guidance announced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gunma-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15777:1" rel="noopener">Gunma Bank (8334 JP)</a>, the dominant bank in Gunma Prefecture northwest of the Japanese capital Tokyo, is a reminder that the coronavirus pandemic continues to exact a heavy toll on Japanese industry, despite substantial efforts by the Japanese government and private commercial banks to support their clients wherever feasible.  Despite the likely dent in FY3/2021 earnings (to be formally announced in the next 2-3 weeks) caused by additional credit provisioning, we expect earnings to recover in FY3/2022.  The bank is maintaining its dividend unchanged at ¥13/share, suggesting a dividend payout ratio of around 45%.  On a prospective PER (using the bank’s revised guidance) of 12.5x and a low PBR of 0.31x, the stock remains attractive against peers.  We maintain our positive view on this stock.

The unexpected cut to FY3/2021 guidance announced by Gunma Bank (8334 JP), the dominant bank in Gunma Prefecture northwest of the Japanese capital Tokyo, is a reminder that the coronavirus pandemic continues to exact a heavy toll on Japanese industry, despite substantial efforts by the Japanese government and private commercial banks to support their clients wherever feasible.  Despite the likely dent in FY3/2021 earnings (to be formally announced in the next 2-3 weeks) caused by additional credit provisioning, we expect earnings to recover in FY3/2022.  The bank is maintaining its dividend unchanged at ¥13/share, suggesting a dividend payout ratio of around 45%.  On a prospective PER (using the bank’s revised guidance) of 12.5x and a low PBR of 0.31x, the stock remains attractive against peers.  We maintain our positive view on this stock.

Gunma Bank  (8334 JP):  Compressed Guidance

Japan

The Chugoku Bank, Limited is a regional bank based in Okayama prefecture.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, and exchange transactions.  The Chugoku Bank also provides other financial services including securities brokerage, trust banking, credit cards, leasing, and investment advisory services.

Chugoku Bank (8382 JP)

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