Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...</li>
<li>SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.</li>
<li>5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.</li>
</ul>


Our intermediate-term outlook remains bearish/cautious, and we continue to believe a prolonged downturn is likely, which has been the case since our 4/1/25 Compass. However, shorter-term...
SPX is now 4.5%-5.0% lower than last week (when we said to expect the rally to fizzle), and is testing 5100-5120 support.
5100-5120 has been a key level several times dating back to early 2024, and is a level to trade against to the long side.


Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Research from Superfluous Value, Superfluous Value

Superfluous Value

Research from Superfluous Value

Stock selection has rarely been as important as it is today. After a roaring decade for US markets and with signs of mania everywhere, the S&P 500 as over-priced as it has ever been.

But, there is better way. Superfluous Value is a contrarian, deep-dive into the markets forgotten by the 60/40 instos and indexing, momentum chasers. Where the hot money has long moved on, it leaves behind investments offering great safety and prospective returns.

I believe the 2020s will look diametrically opposite to the recent past, with Emerging Markets, the UK, Japan and commodities set to rip and I intend to be holding the best opportunities available as they do.

Please feel free to come along on the journey.

Contrarian Deep-Dive into the Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Value investing is often described as running towards the fire or seeking out disaster.</li>
<li>Often, outstanding returns can be had as the market reverts from total capitulation, to merely bad.</li>
<li>In the case of Brazil today, an investor is paying capitulation pricing for prospects that are already better than merely bad.</li>
</ul>


Value investing is often described as running towards the fire or seeking out disaster.
Often, outstanding returns can be had as the market reverts from total capitulation, to merely bad.
In the case of Brazil today, an investor is paying capitulation pricing for prospects that are already better than merely bad.


Equity Bottom-Up

Cia Brasileira de Distribuicao / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>I recently made my first purchase for the year, buying a core position in Brazilian holdco Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição (CBD:NYSE).</li><li>I believe it has merely been caught up in the general market/SIVB sell-off and the price being offered is too good to pass up.</li><li>CBD is engaged in supermarket/retailing operations and is controlled by the French giant Casino, with 41% ownership.</li></ul>

I recently made my first purchase for the year, buying a core position in Brazilian holdco Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição (CBD:NYSE).I believe it has merely been caught up in the general market/SIVB sell-off and the price being offered is too good to pass up.CBD is engaged in supermarket/retailing operations and is controlled by the French giant Casino, with 41% ownership.

CBD - When The Catalyst Is Slapping You in the Face

Brazil

Cia Brasileira de Distribuicao operates in the food and non-food retail businesses. The Group's structure comprises of supermarkets, hypermarkets, electronics/household appliance stores, convenience stores, cash & carry (wholesale/retail), e-commerce operations and a wide distribution network.

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Cia Brasileira de Distribuicao (CBD US)

Upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight; Short-Term Bottom Potential Here

Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Overweight; Still Intermediate-Term Bearish/Cautious, But use 5100-5120 on $SPX as a stop loss and a level to...

Vermilion Research

Brazilian Value: The Trade of the Decade

Value investing is often described as running towards the fire or seeking out disaster. Often, outstanding returns can be had as the market reverts...

Superfluous Value

CBD - When The Catalyst Is Slapping You in the Face

I recently made my first purchase for the year, buying a core position in Brazilian holdco Companhia Brasileira de Distribuição (CBD:NYSE).

Superfluous Value

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)